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Doubly Stochastic Reduced Form Credit Risk Model and Default Probability Uncertainty – a Technical Toolkit

Author

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  • Jonas Vogt
Abstract
Reduced form credit risk models provide a versatile platform to model credit risks and to quantify the interplay between the stochastic dimension of default probabilities and credit spread levels. This article gives a brief introduction to the required technical foundations and discusses the approach to examine uncertainties regarding default probabilities and credit spreads which has been established by [1]. The intention of this article is to help academic researcher as well as practitioners to understand related research projects, to do new research on this question or to improve credit risk models used in financial institutions.Mathematics Subject Classification: G12; G13Keywords: Credit Risk; Reduced Form Credit Risk Models; Variance Premium

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas Vogt, 2017. "Doubly Stochastic Reduced Form Credit Risk Model and Default Probability Uncertainty – a Technical Toolkit," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(2), pages 1-2.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:6:y:2017:i:2:f:6_2_2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davidson, James, 1994. "Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774037.
    2. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    3. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
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    6. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    7. Overbeck, Ludger & Rydén, Tobias, 1997. "Estimation in the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 430-461, June.
    8. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    9. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Duffie, Darrell, 2005. "Credit risk modeling with affine processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2751-2802, November.
    11. Singleton, Kenneth J., 2001. "Estimation of affine asset pricing models using the empirical characteristic function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 111-141, May.
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