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Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-rich Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Elva Bova

    (European Commission, Belgium)

  • Paulo Medas

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Tigran Poghosyan

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract
Resource-rich countries face large and persistent shocks, especially coming from volatile commodity prices. Given the severity of the shocks, it would be expected that these countries adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to help shield the domestic economy, either through larger spending at times of commodity busts or lower spending during commodity booms. Taking advantage of a new dataset covering 48 non-renewable commodity exporters for the period 1970–2014, we investigate whether fiscal policy does indeed play a stabilizing role. Our analysis shows that fiscal policy tends to have a procyclical bias (mainly via expenditures) and, contrary to others, we do not find evidence that this bias has declined in recent years. Further, we find that the adoption of fiscal rules does not seem to reduce procyclicality in a significant way, but the quality of political institutions does matter. Finally, we find that non-commodity revenues tend to respond only to persistent changes in commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Elva Bova & Paulo Medas & Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-rich Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(9), pages 103-122, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgm:jbfeuw:v:1:y:2018:i:9:p:103-122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2022. "The impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance and the role of real interest rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1375-1402, September.
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    5. Eregha, Perekunah B. & Mesagan, Ekundayo P., 2020. "Oil resources, deficit financing and per capita GDP growth in selected oil-rich African nations: A dynamic heterogeneous panel approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Dakpoulé Da & Mahamadou Diarra, 2023. "Effect of International Commodity Price Shocks on Public Finances in Africa," Public Finance Review, , vol. 51(2), pages 236-261, March.
    7. Glada Lahn & Paul Stevens, 2017. "The curse of the one-size-fits-all fix: Re-evaluating what we know about extractives and economic development," WIDER Working Paper Series 021, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Afonso, António & Huart, Florence & Tovar Jalles, João & Stanek, Piotr, 2022. "Twin deficits revisited: A role for fiscal institutions?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "Fiscal Policy in Oil-exporting Countries: The Roles of Oil Funds and Institutional Quality," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 567-590, August.
    10. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.
    11. Yacouba COULIBALY & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2022. "How Do Natural Resource – Backed Loans Affect the Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Countries? Empirical Evidence," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2937, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    12. Thales Pacific Yapatake Kossele & Mom Aloysius Njong, 2020. "Capital flight and diamond exports in the Central African Republic: The role of political governance crisis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 362-374, September.
    13. Peter Ekundayo Mesagan & Akanni Ismaila Yusuf & Azubuike Isaac Ogbuji, 2019. "Natural resource endowment and output growth: How crucial is deficit financing in managing resource-rich African economies?," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 21(2), pages 353-369, December.
    14. Hathroubi, Salem & Aloui, Chaker, 2022. "Oil price dynamics and fiscal policy cyclicality in Saudi Arabia: New evidence from partial and multiple wavelet coherences," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 149-160.
    15. Davood Danesh Jafari & Hamid Nazemian & Javid Bahrami & Mohammad Hassan Kheiravar, 2021. "Effect of Oil Revenues on Certain Macroeconomic Variables in Selected Oil-Exporting Countries: A Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 3-21.
    16. Vincent Géronimi & Claire Mainguy, 2020. "Exploitation minière et développement : des effets toujours controversés. Introduction," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(1), pages 7-29.
    17. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Nahla Samargandi & Kazi Sohag, 2022. "Oil Price Shocks to Foreign Assets and Liabilities in Saudi Arabia under Pegged Exchange Rate," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Jakob de Haan & Bram Gootjes, 2023. "What Makes Discretionary Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy so Difficult? An Analysis of 32 OECD Countries," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 69(1), pages 1-20.
    20. Yeltsin Tafur & Eric Lilford & Roberto F. Aguilera, 2022. "Assessing the risk of foreign investment within the petroleum sector of South America," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-32, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices; resource-rich countries; procyclical fiscal policy; fiscal rules.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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