[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v66y2022i2p327-356.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Price Shocks and Conflict Escalation: Onshore versus Offshore

Author

Listed:
  • Jørgen Juel Andersen
  • Frode Martin Nordvik
  • Andrea Tesei
Abstract
We reconsider the relationship between oil and conflict, focusing on the location of oil resources. In a panel of 132 countries over the period 1962-2009, we show that oil windfalls escalate conflict in onshore-rich countries, while they de-escalate conflict in offshore-rich countries. We use a model to illustrate how these opposite effects can be explained by a fighting capacity mechanism, whereby the government can use offshore oil income to increase its fighting capacity, while onshore oil may be looted by oppositional groups to finance a rebellion. We provide empirical evidence supporting this interpretation: we find that oil price windfalls increase both the number and strength of active rebel groups in onshore-rich countries, while they strengthen the government in offshore-rich ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Jørgen Juel Andersen & Frode Martin Nordvik & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Oil Price Shocks and Conflict Escalation: Onshore versus Offshore," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(2), pages 327-356, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:66:y:2022:i:2:p:327-356
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027211042664
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027211042664
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00220027211042664?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lei, Yu-Hsiang & Michaels, Guy, 2014. "Do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 139-157.
    2. Thiemo Fetzer & Samuel Marden, 2017. "Take What You Can: Property Rights, Contestability and Conflict," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(601), pages 757-783, May.
    3. Antonio Ciccone, 2018. "International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond," Working Papers 1016, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2016. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 573-590, July.
    5. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    6. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    7. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2017. "This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1564-1610, June.
    8. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-2.
    9. Francesco Caselli & Guy Michaels, 2013. "Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 208-238, January.
    10. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, May.
    11. Anca M. Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 49-80, January.
    12. Jørgen Juel Andersen & Niels Johannesen & David Dreyer Lassen & Elena Paltseva, 2017. "Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 818-860.
    13. James D. Fearon, 2004. "Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 275-301, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Korn, Tobias, 2023. "The Persistent Consequences of Civil Conflict: Evidence from a New Measure for Subnational Conflict Exposure," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-711, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    2. Bharati, Tushar & Jetter, Michael & Malik, Muhammad Nauman, 2024. "Types of communications technology and civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Hamang, Jonas, 2024. "Economic development and known natural resource endowment: Discovery rate differentials of oil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2023. "Natural resources and conflict: The crucial role of power mismatch and geographic asymmetries," Working Papers 698, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J rgen Juel Andersen & Frode Martin Nordvik & Andrea Tesei, 2017. "Oil and Civil Conflict: On and Off (Shore)," Working Papers No 1/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. Kodjovi M. Eklou, 2020. "A Leadership Curse? Oil Price Shocks and the Selection of National Leaders," Cahiers de recherche 20-05, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    3. Nemera Gebeyehu Mamo, 2018. "Essays on natural resources in Africa: local economic development, multi-ethnic coalitions and armed conflict," Economics PhD Theses 0518, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Arinze Nwokolo, 2018. "Oil Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 274, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," Working Papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    6. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2017. "This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1564-1610, June.
    7. Morelli, Massimo & Rohner, Dominic, 2015. "Resource concentration and civil wars," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 32-47.
    8. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    9. Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2016. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 573-590, July.
    10. Alex Dickson & Ian A. MacKenzie & Petros G. Sekeris, 2022. "The role of markets on resource conflicts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 677-708, July.
    11. Oliver Vanden Eynde, 2015. "Mining Royalties and Incentives for Security Operations: Evidence from India's Red Corridor," PSE Working Papers halshs-01245496, HAL.
    12. Anouk S. Rigterink, 2020. "Diamonds, Rebel’s and Farmer’s Best Friend: Impact of Variation in the Price of a Lootable, Labor-intensive Natural Resource on the Intensity of Violent Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(1), pages 90-126, January.
    13. Alex Dickson & Ian A MacKenzie & Petros G Sekeris, 2018. "The role of markets and preferences on resource conflicts," Working Papers 1819, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    14. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," CERDI Working papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    15. Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2023. "Natural resources and conflict: The crucial role of power mismatch and geographic asymmetries," Working Papers 698, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    16. Michael Denly & Michael G. Findley & Joelean Hall & Andrew Stravers & James Igoe Walsh, 2022. "Do Natural Resources Really Cause Civil Conflict? Evidence from the New Global Resources Dataset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(3), pages 387-412, April.
    17. Mahdi FAWAZ, 2020. "Ressources naturelles et guerres civiles au Moyen-Orient," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2020-09, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    18. Ciccone, Antonio, 2018. "International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 12625, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Phoebe W. Ishak & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 298-321, July.
    20. Roland Hodler & Paul Schaudt & Alberto Vesperoni, 2023. "Mining for Peace," CESifo Working Paper Series 10207, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural resources; conflict;

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:66:y:2022:i:2:p:327-356. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.