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Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War on the Asian Economy: An Applied Analysis of IDE-GSM

Author

Listed:
  • Satoru Kumagai
  • Toshitaka Gokan
  • Kenmei Tsubota
  • Ikumo Isono
  • Kazunobu Hayakawa
Abstract
In this article, we attempt to estimate the economic impacts of the US–China trade war that began in 2018. We used IDE-GSM, a computational general equilibrium simulation model, to estimate the economic impacts of a ‘full-confrontation’ scenario wherein both countries impose 25% additional tariffs on all goods imported from each other for 3 years 2019 onwards. In our calculation, the economic impact for the United States is −0.4% and −0.5% for China. Some Asian countries benefit from the trade war. As far as it remains bilateral, the trade war is only an issue for the concerned parties. We also ran the US–world trade war scenario, wherein the United States and all other countries impose a 25% additional tariff on all goods. The negative impact on the global economy is –0.8%, much more significant than the 0.1% impact from the US–China trade war. Thus, it is clear that the world cannot afford to engage in a multilateral trade war. JEL Codes: C68, F13

Suggested Citation

  • Satoru Kumagai & Toshitaka Gokan & Kenmei Tsubota & Ikumo Isono & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2021. "Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War on the Asian Economy: An Applied Analysis of IDE-GSM," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 3(2), pages 127-143, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jfasei:v:3:y:2021:i:2:p:127-143
    DOI: 10.1177/26316846211032296
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rudi Purwono & Unggul Heriqbaldi & Miguel Angel Esquivias & M. Khoerul Mubin, 2022. "The American–China Trade War and Spillover Effects on Value-Added Exports from Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    2. TAKEDA Shiro & HIGASHIDA Keisaku & YOMOGIDA Morihiro, 2024. "Evaluation of the Impacts of Trade Restrictions between China and Japan," Discussion papers 24072, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Wei Luo & Siyuan Kang & Sheng Hu & Lixian Su & Rui Dai, 2023. "Dual Effects of the US-China Trade War and COVID-19 on United States Imports: Transfer of China's industrial chain?," Papers 2309.02271, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US–China trade war; IDE-GSM; simulation analysis; CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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