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Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Harpaul Alberto Kohli

    (Harpaul Alberto Kohli, Manager, Information Analytics, Centennial Group International and Emerging Markets Forum, Washington DC. E-mail: harpaul@hcs.harvard.edu.)

  • Y. Aaron Szyf

    (Y. Aaron Szyf, Policy Analyst, Centennial Group International and Emerging Market Forum, Washington DC. E-mail: aaron@centennial-group.com)

  • Drew Arnold

    (Drew Arnold, Economic Analyst, Centennial Group International and Emerging Market Forum, Washington DC. E-mail: drew@centennial-group.com)

Abstract
This article presents the construction and analysis of a long-run GDP growth model, including sample results, its sensitivity to parameter choices, and explanations of the concepts underpinning it. It is designed to be flexible so that scholars can use it with their own assumptions and parameter choices to customize results. The model estimates GDP as a function of labor force, capital stock, and total factor productivity (TFP) for 185 countries through 2050 under alternate scenarios. It provides rough estimates for real exchange rates, poverty indices, median and percentile incomes and consumption levels, and the populations of the lower, middle, and upper income classes. The model also provides additional evidence for the TFP convergence phenomenon and the effect of the state failure on TFP growth. It can further be used to model stocks, accessibility, and investment requirements for 10 infrastructure sectors. The model can yield counterfactual estimates and actual and roughly estimated comparable historical data for most of the projected series, provided in identical units. For 126 countries, such series (e.g., TFP) are provided back through 1956, and for some even earlier.

Suggested Citation

  • Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Y. Aaron Szyf & Drew Arnold, 2012. "Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 91-153, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:91-153
    DOI: 10.1177/097491011200400202
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    Cited by:

    1. Rajag M. Nag & Johannes F. Linn & Harinder S. Kohli (ed.), 2016. "Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region's Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number centasia2050, July.
    2. Anil Sood & Y. Aaron Szyf, 2011. "Productivity and Technology for Asia’s Growth," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(3), pages 313-334, September.
    3. Theodore Ahlers & Hiroshi Kato & Harinder S. Kohli & Callisto Madavo & Anil Sood (ed.), 2014. "Africa 2050: Realizing the Continent's Full Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number africa2050, July.
    4. Theodore Ahlers & Harinder S. Kohli & Anil Sood, 2013. "Africa 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 5(3), pages 153-213, September.
    5. Claudio Loser & Jose Fajgenbaum & Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Ieva Vilkelyte, 2017. "How Aging Societies May Affect Global Growth Prospects," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 9(1-3), pages 38-74, January.
    6. Johannes F. Linn, 2014. "In 2012 the country’s leadership announced a vision that Kazakhstan would join the top 30 developed countries by 2050. This article reports on a study that assessed this vision and its feasibility; ex," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(3), pages 283-300, September.
    7. Harinder Kohli & Claudio Loser & Anil Sood (ed.), 2013. "Latin America 2040 — Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence — Second Edition," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 2, number latam2040v2, July.
    8. John Murray McIntire, 2014. "Transforming African Agriculture," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(2), pages 145-179, May.
    9. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Natasha Mukherjee, 2011. "Potential Costs to Asia of the Middle Income Trap," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(3), pages 291-311, September.
    10. Anil Sood & Y. Aaron Szyf, 2011. "Productivity and Technology for Asia’s Growth," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(3), pages 313-334, September.
    11. Johannes F. Linn, 2014. "Kazakhstan 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(3), pages 283-300, September.

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