[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mic/tmpjrn/v17y2021i02p13-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade impacts of the New Silk Road in Africa: Insight from Neural Networks Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Koffi Dumor

    (UNIVERSITY OF ELECTRONIC SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF CHINA)

  • Komlan Gbongli

    (University of Miskolc)

Abstract
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is aimed to strengthen the preferential reciprocal trade between China and the Belt-Road nations. Quantitative evaluations of BRI to determine whether it can explicitly provide more insight into China’s bilateral trade among its partners are needed. Hence, improving prediction accuracy while using more superior algorithms for sustainable decision-making remains essential since decision-makers have been interested in predicting the future. Machine learning algorithms, such as supervised artificial neural networks (ANN), outperform several econometric procedures in predictions; therefore, they are potentially powerful techniques to evaluate BRI. This study uses detailed China’s bilateral export data from 1990 to 2017 to analyze and evaluate the impact of BRI on bilateral trade using gravity model estimations and ANN analysis techniques. The finding suggests that China’s bilateral export flow among the BRI countries results in a slight increase in inter-regional trade. The study provides a comparison view on the different estimation procedures of the gravity model – ordinary least squares (OLS) and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) with the ANN. The ANN associated with fixed country effects reveals a more accurate estimation compared to a baseline model and with country-year fixed effects. Contrarily, the OLS estimator and PPML showed mixed results. Grounded on the study dataset, the ANN estimation of the gravity equation was superior over the other procedures to explain the variability of the dependent variable (export) regarding the prediction accuracy using root mean squared error (RMSE) and R-square.

Suggested Citation

  • Koffi Dumor & Komlan Gbongli, 2021. "Trade impacts of the New Silk Road in Africa: Insight from Neural Networks Analysis," Theory Methodology Practice (TMP), Faculty of Economics, University of Miskolc, vol. 17(02), pages 13-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:mic:tmpjrn:v:17:y:2021:i:02:p:13-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://tmp.gtk.uni-miskolc.hu/volumes/2021/02/TMP_2021_02_02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    2. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
    3. Lisi, Francesco & Schiavo, Rosa A., 1999. "A comparison between neural networks and chaotic models for exchange rate prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 87-102, March.
    4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    5. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Jianwei Xu, 2017. "China's Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe Expect Trade Gains?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(6), pages 84-99, November.
    6. Koffi Dumor & Li Yao, 2019. "Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, March.
    7. Christopher GRIGORIOU & Céline CARRERE, 2008. "Landlockedness, Infrastructure and Trade:New Estimates for Central Asian Countries," Working Papers 200801, CERDI.
    8. Rodolfo Metulini & Roberto Patuelli & Daniel A. Griffith, 2018. "A Spatial-Filtering Zero-Inflated Approach to the Estimation of the Gravity Model of Trade," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Komlan Gbongli & Yongan Xu & Komi Mawugbe Amedjonekou, 2019. "Extended Technology Acceptance Model to Predict Mobile-Based Money Acceptance and Sustainability: A Multi-Analytical Structural Equation Modeling and Neural Network Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-33, July.
    11. Yotov, Yoto V., 2012. "A simple solution to the distance puzzle in international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 794-798.
    12. Julian Donaubauer & Alexander Glas & Birgit Meyer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2018. "Disentangling the impact of infrastructure on trade using a new index of infrastructure," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(4), pages 745-784, November.
    13. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-153, February.
    14. Wu, Berlin, 1995. "Model-free forecasting for nonlinear time series (with application to exchange rates)," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 433-459, April.
    15. Greg Tkacz & Sarah Hu, 1999. "Forecasting GDP Growth Using Artificial Neural Networks," Staff Working Papers 99-3, Bank of Canada.
    16. Raven , J., 2001. "Trade and Transport Facilitation. A Toolkit for Audit, Analysis, and Remedial Action," World Bank - Discussion Papers 427, World Bank.
    17. Patrick Bajari & Denis Nekipelov & Stephen P. Ryan & Miaoyu Yang, 2015. "Machine Learning Methods for Demand Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 481-485, May.
    18. Zaki, C., 2014. "An empirical assessment of the trade facilitation initiative: econometric evidence and global economic effects," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 103-130, January.
    19. Susan Athey, 2018. "The Impact of Machine Learning on Economics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 507-547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Iwanow, Tomasz & Kirkpatrick, Colin, 2009. "Trade Facilitation and Manufactured Exports: Is Africa Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1039-1050, June.
    21. John Raven, 2001. "Trade and Transport Facilitation : A Toolkit for Audit, Analysis, and Remedial Action," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13862.
    22. Zahid Hussain & Nadia Hanif & Wasim Abbas Shaheen & Muhammad Nadeem, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of Multiple Infrastructural Covariates: An Application of Gravity Model on Asian Economies," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(3), pages 299-317, March.
    23. Nikola Gradojevic & Jing Yang, 2000. "The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Role of Market Microstructure Variables," Staff Working Papers 00-23, Bank of Canada.
    24. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
    25. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2018. "The welfare and sectoral adjustment effects of mega-regional trade agreements on ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 20-32.
    26. Robert C. Feenstra, 2015. "Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence Second Edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10615.
    27. Muhammad Khalil Khan & Imran Ali Sandano & Cornelius B. Pratt & Tahir Farid, 2018. "China’s Belt and Road Initiative: A Global Model for an Evolving Approach to Sustainable Regional Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    28. Komlan Gbongli & Yongan Xu & Komi Mawugbe Amedjonekou & Levente Kovács, 2020. "Evaluation and Classification of Mobile Financial Services Sustainability Using Structural Equation Modeling and Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-34, February.
    29. Marianne Baxter, 2017. "Robust Determinants of Bilateral Trade," 2017 Meeting Papers 591, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    30. Hal R. Varian, 2014. "Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    31. John S. Wilson & Catherine L. Mann & Tsunehiro Otsuki, 2003. "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: A New Approach to Quantifying the Impact," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 17(3), pages 367-389, December.
    32. Zahid Hussain & Nadia Hanif & Wasim Abbas Shaheen & Muhammad Nadeem, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of Multiple Infrastructural Covariates: An Application of Gravity Model on Asian Economies," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(3), pages 299-317.
    33. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koffi Dumor & Li Yao, 2019. "Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Cristina Di Stefano & P. Lelio Iapadre & Ilaria Salvati, 2021. "Trade and Infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Gravity Analysis Based on Revealed Trade Preferences," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Koffi Dumor & Li Yao & Jean-Paul Ainam & Edem Koffi Amouzou & Williams Ayivi, 2021. "Quantitative Dynamics Effects of Belt and Road Economies Trade Using Structural Gravity and Neural Networks," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    4. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Zongo, Amara, 2020. "The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Food Trade," MPRA Paper 101658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Luljeta Hajderllari & Kostas Karantininis & Lartey G. Lawson, 2012. "FDI as an Export-Platform: A Gravity Model for the Danish Agri-Food Industry," IFRO Working Paper 2012/7, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    7. Tamaş Anca, 2020. "Why should the gravity model be taught in business education?," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 422-433, July.
    8. Thomas Orliac, 2012. "The economics of trade facilitation [L'économie de la facilitation des échanges]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03681980, HAL.
    9. Zongo, Amara, 2021. "The impact of services trade restrictiveness on food trade," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 71-94.
    10. Mohd Hussain Kunroo & Imran Ahmad, 2023. "Heckscher-Ohlin Theory or the Modern Trade Theory: How the Overall Trade Characterizes at the Global Level?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 151-174, March.
    11. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    12. Michele FRATIANNI & Chang HOON HO, 2007. "On the Relationship Between RTA Expansion and Openness," Working Papers 288, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    13. Abdoulaye Seck, 2017. "How Facilitating Trade would Benefit Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 19(1), pages 1-26.
    14. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr & Richard Sellner, 2021. "Revisiting time as a trade barrier: Evidence from a panel structural gravity model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1382-1417, November.
    15. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    16. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2022. "Gravity models for tourism demand modeling: Empirical review and outlook," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1358-1409, December.
    17. A. Cheptea & A. Gohin & Marilyne Huchet, 2008. "Applying the gravity approach to sector trade: who bears the trade costs?," Post-Print hal-00742046, HAL.
    18. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    19. Figueiredo, Erik & Lima, Luiz Renato & Loures, Alexandre & Oliveira, Celina, 2014. "Uma Análise para o Efeito-Fronteira no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(4), October.
    20. Woltjer, Geert & Tabeau, Andrzej, 2008. "Land supply and Ricardian rent," Conference papers 331674, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China;

    JEL classification:

    • B17 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - International Trade and Finance
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • N77 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Africa; Oceania

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mic:tmpjrn:v:17:y:2021:i:02:p:13-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vgtmihu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.