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The Impact of Current Account Reversals on Growth in Central and Eastern Europe

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  • MARTIN MELECKY
Abstract
According to economic theory, a capital inflows reversal--the sudden stop-- has a significant negative effect on economic growth. This article investigates the direct impact of current account reversals on growth in Central and Eastern European countries. Two steps to conduct the analysis are applied. In the first step, the standard growth equation is estimated when including the current account reversal impulse dummy. I find that after a current account reversal, the growth rate declines by 1.10 percent in the current year. The subsequent analysis of the adjustment dynamics builds upon the notion of convergence. The unconditional and conditional convergence coefficients are found to be -0.47 and -0.52, respectively. This implies that the consequences of the reversal are likely eliminated after 3.3 years when the actual growth rate is back at its equilibrium level, ceteris paribus. Finally, the cumulative loss associated with a sudden stop in capital flows is about 2.3 percent. One may infer that Central and Eastern European countries are relatively flexible in terms of adjustment and reallocation of resources given the findings in similar literature examining either a more general sample or concentrating on rather different regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Melecky, 2005. "The Impact of Current Account Reversals on Growth in Central and Eastern Europe," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 57-72, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:43:y:2005:i:2:p:57-72
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott W Hegerty, 2009. "Capital flows to transition economies: what is the role of external shocks?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1345-1358.
    2. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "Current Account Reversals and Persistency in Transition Regions," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43, May.
    3. Ai Lian Tan Author_Email: tanal@utar.edu.my & Shiau Mooi Lim & Seow Shin Koong & Ying Yin Koay, 2011. "Exchange Rate And Current Account: Are They Co-Integrated Symmetrically Or Asymmetrically?," Annual Summit on Business and Entrepreneurial Studies (ASBES 2011) Proceeding 2011-019-150, Conference Master Resources.
    4. Aleksander Aristovnik & Andrej Kumar, 2006. "Some Characteristics of Sharp Current Account Deficit Reversals in Transition Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 4(1), pages 9-45.
    5. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Current Account Reversals In Selected Transition Countries," International Finance 0510021, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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