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HIV/AIDS-related Expectations and Risky Sexual Behaviour in Malawi

Author

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  • Adeline Delavande
  • Hans-Peter Kohler
Abstract
We use probabilistic expectations data elicited from survey respondents in rural Malawi to investigate how risky sexual behaviour may be influenced by individuals' expectations about survival, and future HIV status, which in turn depend on the perceived impact of HIV/AIDS on survival, expectations about own and partner's current HIV status, and expectations about HIV transmission rates. Subjective expectations, in particular about mortality risk but not the risk of living with HIV, play an important role in determining the decision to have multiple sexual partners. Using our estimated parameters, we simulate the impact of various policies that would influence expectations. An information campaign on mortality risk would decrease risky sexual behaviour on average, whereas an information campaign on HIV transmission risks, which tend to be overestimated by respondents, would actually increase risky behaviour. Also, the expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) treatments to all individuals infected with HIV would increase risky sexual behaviour for a quarter of the HIV-negative individuals or those who have not been tested because they are aware that ART increases life expectancy, and thus reduces the cost of becoming HIV positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2016. "HIV/AIDS-related Expectations and Risky Sexual Behaviour in Malawi," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 118-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:83:y:2016:i:1:p:118-164.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdv028
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    Cited by:

    1. Biroli, Pietro & Boneva, Teodora & Raja, Akash & Rauh, Christopher, 2022. "Parental beliefs about returns to child health investments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 33-57.
    2. Shah,Manisha & Seager,Jennifer & Montalvao Machado,Joao H. C. & Goldstein,Markus P., 2022. "Two Sides of Gender : Sex, Power, and Adolescence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10072, The World Bank.
    3. Salamanca, Nicolás & de Grip, Andries & Fouarge, Didier & Montizaan, Raymond, 2020. "Locus of control and investment in risky assets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 548-568.
    4. Cavapozzi, Danilo & Francesconi, Marco & Nicoletti, Cheti, 2024. "Dividing Housework between Partners: Individual Preferences and Social Norms," IZA Discussion Papers 17370, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Romuald Méango & François Poinas, 2023. "The (Option-) Value of Overstaying," CESifo Working Paper Series 10536, CESifo.
    6. Lekfuangfu, Warn N., 2022. "Mortality risk, perception, and human capital investments: The legacy of landmines in Cambodia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2022. "Maternal Investments in Children : The Role of Expected Effort and Returns," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1423, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Yokoo, Hide-Fumi & Arimura, Toshi H. & Chattopadhyay, Mriduchhanda & Katayama, Hajime, 2023. "Subjective risk belief function in the field: Evidence from cooking fuel choices and health in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Bertocchi, Graziella & Dimico, Arcangelo, 2019. "The long-term determinants of female HIV infection in Africa: The slave trade, polygyny, and sexual behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 90-105.
    10. Jethro Banda & Albert Dube & Sarah Brumfield & Abena Amoah & Amelia Crampin & Georges Reniers & Stephane Helleringer, 2021. "Knowledge, risk perceptions, and behaviors related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(20), pages 459-480.
    11. Kettlewell, Nathan, 2020. "Subjective Expectations for Health Service Use and Consequences for Health Insurance Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 13445, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Chattopadhyay, Mriduchhanda & Arimura, Toshi H. & Katayama, Hajime & Sakudo, Mari & Yokoo, Hide-Fumi, 2021. "Subjective probabilistic expectations, household air pollution, and health: Evidence from cooking fuel use patterns in West Bengal, India," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Seetha Menon, 2017. "Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 673-699, April.
    14. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2022. "Maternal Investments in Children : The Role of Expected Effort and Returns," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 637, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    15. Gabriella Conti & Michele Giannola & Alessandro Toppeta, 2024. "Parental beliefs, perceived health risks, and time investment in children," IFS Working Papers W24/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Abel, Martin & Byker, Tanya & Carpenter, Jeffrey, 2021. "Socially optimal mistakes? debiasing COVID-19 mortality risk perceptions and prosocial behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 456-480.
    17. Elisa Maria Maffioli & Wendy Prudhomme O’Meara & Elizabeth L. Turner & Manoj Mohanan, 2021. "Can individuals’ beliefs help us understand nonadherence to malaria test results? Evidence from rural Kenya," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 163-182, February.

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