[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/jfinec/v11y2013i2p221-262.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Alain Monfort
  • Jean-Paul Renne
Abstract
This article presents a general discrete-time affine framework aimed at jointly modeling yield curves associated with different debtors. The underlying fixed-income securities may differ in terms of credit quality and/or in terms of liquidity. The risk factors follow conditionally Gaussian processes, with drifts and covariance matrices that are subject to regime shifts described by a Markov chain with (historical) non-homogenous transition probabilities. Bond prices are given by quasi-explicit formulas. The tractability of the framework is illustrated by the estimation of a term-structure model of the spreads between U.S. BBB-rated corporate bonds and Treasuries. Alternative applications are proposed, including a sector-contagion model as well as the explicit modeling of credit-rating transitions. Copyright The Author, 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013. "Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 221-262, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:11:y:2013:i:2:p:221-262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbs020
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
    2. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Do Central Bank Liquidity Facilities Affect Interbank Lending Rates?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 136-151, January.
    3. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
    4. Dan Covitz & Chris Downing, 2007. "Liquidity or Credit Risk? The Determinants of Very Short‐Term Corporate Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2303-2328, October.
    5. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
    6. H. Bertholon & A. Monfort & F. Pegoraro, 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 407-458, Fall.
    7. Hackbarth, Dirk & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2006. "Capital structure, credit risk, and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 519-550, December.
    8. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & René Garcia, 2012. "Bond Liquidity Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1207-1254.
    9. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    10. John C. Williams & John B. Taylor, 2009. "A Black Swan in the Money Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 58-83, January.
    11. Tao Wu, 2008. "On the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's new liquidity facilities," Working Papers 0808, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Feng, D. & Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2008. "The ordered qualitative model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 111-130, January.
    13. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2006. "The Market Price of Risk in Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles of Default and Liquidity Risks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2337-2360, September.
    14. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
    15. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007. "Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
    16. Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working papers 191, Banque de France.
    17. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    18. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
    19. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    20. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957.
    21. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2008. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 19, pages 455-480, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Giesecke, Kay, 2004. "Correlated default with incomplete information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1521-1545, July.
    24. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    25. Jan Ericsson & Olivier Renault, 2006. "Liquidity and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2219-2250, October.
    26. M. Davis & V. Lo, 2001. "Infectious defaults," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 382-387.
    27. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 645-703, February.
    28. Serge Darolles & Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak, 2006. "Structural Laplace Transform and Compound Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 477-503, July.
    29. C. Gourieroux & A. Monfort & V. Polimenis, 2006. "Affine Models for Credit Risk Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 494-530.
    30. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    31. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
    32. Patrick Gagliardini, 2005. "Stochastic Migration Models with Application to Corporate Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 188-226.
    33. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "The Flight-to-Liquidity Premium in U.S. Treasury Bond Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 511-526, July.
    34. François-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    35. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    36. Cantor, Richard, 2004. "An introduction to recent research on credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2565-2573, November.
    37. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2006. "Multi-Lag Term Structure Models with Stochastic Risk Premia," Working Papers 2006-29, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    38. John Taylor & John Williams, 2008. "Further Results on a Black Swan in the Money Market," Discussion Papers 07-046, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    39. Lando, David & Nielsen, Mads Stenbo, 2010. "Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 355-372, July.
    40. Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    41. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    42. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 105-153.
    43. Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2002. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1997-2043, October.
    44. Wei, Jason Z., 2003. "A multi-factor, credit migration model for sovereign and corporate debts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 709-735, October.
    45. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    46. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    47. Lara Cathcart & Lina El-Jahel, 2006. "Pricing defaultable bonds: a middle-way approach between structural and reduced-form models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 243-253.
    48. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    49. Davies, Andrew, 2008. "Credit spread determinants: An 85 year perspective," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-197, May.
    50. Alexander David, 2008. "Inflation Uncertainty, Asset Valuations, and the Credit Spreads Puzzle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2487-2534, November.
    51. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
    52. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    53. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Marek Rutkowski, 2000. "Multiple Ratings Model of Defaultable Term Structure," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 125-139, April.
    54. Cai, Jun, 1994. "A Markov Model of Switching-Regime ARCH," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 309-316, July.
    55. Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2008. "Decomposing swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-405, May.
    56. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schuster, Philipp & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2012. "The term structure of bond market liquidity conditional on the economic environment: An analysis of government guaranteed bonds," Working Paper Series in Economics 45, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J.P., 2014. "Pricing default events: Surprise, exogeneity and contagion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 397-411.
    3. Azizpour, S & Giesecke, K. & Schwenkler, G., 2018. "Exploring the sources of default clustering," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 154-183.
    4. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves," Working Papers 2011-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    5. Thomas Laubach, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: The Role of Sovereign Default Risk," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 7-30.
    6. Nguyen, Ha, 2023. "An empirical application of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo to frailty correlated default models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-121.
    7. Juan Ángel García & Ricardo Gimeno, 2014. "Flight-to-liquidity flows in the euro area sovereign debt crisis," Working Papers 1429, Banco de España.
    8. Schuster, Philipp & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2015. "Limits to arbitrage and the term structure of bond illiquidity premiums," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 143-159.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves," Working Papers 2011-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    2. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    4. Batten, Jonathan A. & Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Rose C., 2014. "Corporate yield spreads and real interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-100.
    5. Bhanu Pratap Singh Thakur & M. Kannadhasan & Vinay Goyal, 2018. "Determinants of corporate credit spread: evidence from India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(1), pages 59-73, March.
    6. Fischer, Henning & Stolper, Oscar, 2019. "The nonlinear dynamics of corporate bond spreads: Regime-dependent effects of their determinants," Discussion Papers 08/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
    8. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    9. Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J.P., 2014. "Pricing default events: Surprise, exogeneity and contagion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 397-411.
    10. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    11. H. Bertholon & A. Monfort & F. Pegoraro, 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 407-458, Fall.
    12. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    13. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2013. "Dynamic effects of idiosyncratic volatility and liquidity on corporate bond spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2969-2990.
    14. Filipović, Damir & Trolle, Anders B., 2013. "The term structure of interbank risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 707-733.
    15. Dionne, Georges & Gauthier, Geneviève & Hammami, Khemais & Maurice, Mathieu & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2011. "A reduced form model of default spreads with Markov-switching macroeconomic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1984-2000, August.
    16. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working Papers 2007-19, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    17. Jennie Bai & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2012. "On bounding credit event risk premia," Staff Reports 577, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2010. "Is Credit Event Risk Priced? Modeling Contagion via the Updating of Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 15733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Murphy, Austin & Headley, Adrian, 2022. "An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    21. Jobst, Norbert J. & Zenios, Stavros A., 2005. "On the simulation of portfolios of interest rate and credit risk sensitive securities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 298-324, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:11:y:2013:i:2:p:221-262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sofieea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.