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Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive or Post-Default

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  • Tamon Asonuma
  • Christoph Trebesch
Abstract
Sovereign debt restructurings can be implemented preemptively—prior to a payment default. We code a comprehensive new data set and find that preemptive restructurings (i) are frequent (38% of all deals 1978–2010), (ii) have lower haircuts, (iii) are quicker to negotiate, and (iv) see lower output losses. To rationalize these stylized facts, we build a quantitative sovereign debt model that incorporates preemptive and post-default renegotiations. The model improves the fit with the data and explains the sovereign’s optimal choice: preemptive restructurings occur when default risk is high ex ante, while defaults occur after unexpected bad shocks. Empirical evidence supports these predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamon Asonuma & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive or Post-Default," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 175-214.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:1:p:175-214.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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