[The consequences of radical reform: the French revolution]"> [The consequences of radical reform: the French revolution]">
[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/jecgeo/v20y2020i2p481-507..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Migration restrictions and long-term regional development: evidence from large-scale expulsions of Germans after World War II
[The consequences of radical reform: the French revolution]

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Wyrwich
Abstract
This article investigates the long-run impact of a migration barrier on regional development. The analysis is based on the large-scale expulsion of Germans from Central and Eastern Europe after World War II (WWII). Expellees were not allowed to resettle in the French occupation zone in the first years after the War while there was no such legislation in the other occupation zones (USA; UK; Soviet Union). The temporary migration barrier had long-lasting consequences. In a nutshell, results of a Difference-in-Difference (DiD) analysis show that growth of population and population density were significantly lower even 60 years after the removal of the barrier if a region was part of the French occupation zone. There was a common trend in regional development before the migration barrier became effective. Further analyses suggest that this pattern is driven by different population dynamics in agglomerated areas. The article discusses implications for spatial theory namely whether location fundamentals, agglomeration theories or both affect the spatial equilibrium under certain conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Wyrwich, 2020. "Migration restrictions and long-term regional development: evidence from large-scale expulsions of Germans after World War II [The consequences of radical reform: the French revolution]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 481-507.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jecgeo:v:20:y:2020:i:2:p:481-507.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeg/lbz024
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leah Platt Boustan & Matthew E. Kahn & Paul W. Rhode, 2012. "Moving to Higher Ground: Migration Response to Natural Disasters in the Early Twentieth Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 238-244, May.
    2. Nathan Nunn, 2008. "The Long-term Effects of Africa's Slave Trades," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 139-176.
    3. Christian Dustmann & Francesco Fasani & Tommaso Frattini & Luigi Minale & Uta Schönberg, 2017. "On the economics and politics of refugee migration," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 497-550.
    4. Gordon H. Hanson & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Political economy, sectoral shocks, and border enforcement," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(3), pages 612-638, August.
    5. Antonio Spilimbergo & Gordon H. Hanson, 1999. "Illegal Immigration, Border Enforcement, and Relative Wages: Evidence from Apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico Border," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1337-1357, December.
    6. Thomas K. Bauer & Sebastian Braun & Michael Kvasnicka, 2013. "The Economic Integration of Forced Migrants: Evidence for Post‐War Germany," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123, pages 998-1024, September.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Davide Cantoni & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2011. "The Consequences of Radical Reform: The French Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3286-3307, December.
    8. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2008. "The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1766-1797, December.
    9. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    10. Braun, Sebastian & Omar Mahmoud, Toman, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Immigration: Evidence from the Mass Arrival of German Expellees in Postwar Germany," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 69-108, March.
    11. Timothy G. Conley & Christopher R. Taber, 2011. "Inference with "Difference in Differences" with a Small Number of Policy Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 113-125, February.
    12. Maximilian v. Ehrlich & Tobias Seidel, 2018. "The Persistent Effects of Place-Based Policy: Evidence from the West-German Zonenrandgebiet," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 344-374, November.
    13. Braun, Sebastian & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2014. "Immigration and structural change: Evidence from post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 253-269.
    14. Konrad B. Burchardi & Tarek A. Hassan, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Social Ties: Evidence from German Reunification," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 1219-1271.
    15. christoph Eder & Martin Halla, 2016. "The Long-lasting Shadow of the Allied Occupation of Austria on its Spatial Equilibrium," HiCN Working Papers 230, Households in Conflict Network.
    16. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2004. "The strategic bombing of German cities during World War II and its impact on city growth," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 201-218, April.
    17. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon & Sébastien Roux, 2010. "Estimating Agglomeration Economies with History, Geology, and Worker Effects," NBER Chapters, in: Agglomeration Economics, pages 15-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kristian Behrens & Gilles Duranton & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2014. "Productive Cities: Sorting, Selection, and Agglomeration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 507-553.
    19. Michael A. Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2019. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(4), pages 818-857, August.
    20. Engel, Stefanie & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2007. "Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 335-365, January.
    21. David Cuberes & Rafael González-Val, 2017. "The effect of the Spanish Reconquest on Iberian cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(3), pages 375-416, May.
    22. Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2016. "Historical shocks and persistence of economic activity: evidence from a unique natural experiment," HSE Working papers WP BRP 143/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    23. Anna Piil Damm, 2009. "Ethnic Enclaves and Immigrant Labor Market Outcomes: Quasi-Experimental Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(2), pages 281-314, April.
    24. Nathan Nunn & Leonard Wantchekon, 2011. "The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3221-3252, December.
    25. Enrico Moretti, 2014. "Local Economic Development, Agglomeration Economies, and the Big Push: 100 Years of Evidence from the Tennessee Valley Authority," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 275-331.
    26. Semrad, Alexandra, 2015. "Immigration and educational spillovers: evidence from Sudeten German expellees in post-war Bavaria," Discussion Papers in Economics 24851, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    27. Erik Hornung, 2014. "Immigration and the Diffusion of Technology: The Huguenot Diaspora in Prussia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 84-122, January.
    28. David H. Autor, 2003. "Outsourcing at Will: The Contribution of Unjust Dismissal Doctrine to the Growth of Employment Outsourcing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-42, January.
    29. Kalena E. Cortes, 2004. "Are Refugees Different from Economic Immigrants? Some Empirical Evidence on the Heterogeneity of Immigrant Groups in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 465-480, May.
    30. Richard Hornbeck & Suresh Naidu, 2014. "When the Levee Breaks: Black Migration and Economic Development in the American South," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 963-990, March.
    31. Eric Chaney & Richard Hornbeck, 2016. "Economic Dynamics in the Malthusian Era: Evidence from the 1609 Spanish Expulsion of the Moriscos," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(594), pages 1404-1440, August.
    32. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    33. Braun, Sebastian & Kramer, Anica & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks," Ruhr Economic Papers 712, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    34. Braun, Sebastian & Dwenger, Nadja, 2017. "The local environment shapes refugee integration: Evidence from post-war Germany," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 10-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    35. Albrecht Glitz, 2012. "The Labor Market Impact of Immigration: A Quasi-Experiment Exploiting Immigrant Location Rules in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 175-213.
    36. Jan David Bakker & Christopher Parsons & Ferdinand Rauch, 2020. "Migration and Urbanization in Post-Apartheid South Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(2), pages 509-532.
    37. Braun, Sebastian Till & Kramer, Anica & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Local Labor Markets and the Persistence of Population Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 11077, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    38. Christian Ochsner, 2017. "Dismantled once, diverged forever? A quasi-natural experiment of Red Army misdeeds in post-WWII Europe," ifo Working Paper Series 240, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    39. Peter Haan & Martin Kroh & Kent Troutman, 2017. "Employment and Human Capital Investment Intentions among Recent Refugees in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1692, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    40. Braun, Sebastian Till & Weber, Henning, 2021. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    41. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2013. "The Economics of Forced Migration," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(6), pages 772-784, June.
    42. Braun, Sebastian & Dwenger, Nadja, 2017. "The local environment shapes refugee integration: Evidence from post-war Germany," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 10-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    43. Südekum, Jens, 2008. "Convergence of the skill composition across German regions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 148-159, March.
    44. Michael Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2017. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results - Working Paper 455," Working Papers 455, Center for Global Development, revised 19 Jul 2017.
    45. Abel Schumann, 2014. "Persistence of Population Shocks: Evidence from the Occupation of West Germany after World War II," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 189-205, July.
    46. Cortes, Kalena E., 2004. "Are Refugees Different from Economic Immigrants? Some Empirical Evidence on the Heterogeneity of Immigrant Groups in the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 1063, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    47. Peter Haan & Martin Kroh & Kent Troutman, 2017. "Employment and Human Capital Investment Intentions among Recent Refugees in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 937, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valentin Lang & Stephan A. Schneider, 2023. "Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run," CESifo Working Paper Series 10621, CESifo.
    2. Braun, Sebastian Till & Weber, Henning, 2021. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Michael Fritsch & Maria Kristalova & Michael Wyrwich, 2020. "Regional trajectories of entrepreneurship: the effect of socialism and transition," Jena Economics Research Papers 2020-010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. Braun, Sebastian T. & Dwenger, Nadja, 2020. "Settlement location shapes the integration of forced migrants: Evidence from post-war Germany⁎," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Braun, Sebastian T. & Dwenger, Nadja, 2020. "Settlement location shapes the integration of forced migrants: Evidence from post-war Germany⁎," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
    3. Braun, Sebastian & Kramer, Anica & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks," Ruhr Economic Papers 712, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Braun, Sebastian Till & Kramer, Anica & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Local Labor Markets and the Persistence of Population Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 11077, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Christian Ochsner, 2017. "Dismantled once, diverged forever? A quasi-natural experiment of Red Army misdeeds in post-WWII Europe," ifo Working Paper Series 240, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Arnaud Chevalier & Benjamin Elsner & Andreas Lichter & Nico Pestel, 2018. "Immigrant Voters, Taxation and the Size of the Welfare State," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 994, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    7. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Christian Ochsner, 2023. "Hostility, Population Sorting, and Backwardness: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Red Army after WWII," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp768, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    9. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. Braun, Sebastian & Dwenger, Nadja, 2017. "The local environment shapes refugee integration: Evidence from post-war Germany," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 10-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    11. Christoph Eder, 2014. "Missing Men: World War II Casualties and Structural Change," NRN working papers 2014-03, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    12. Sascha O. Becker, 2022. "Forced displacement in history: Some recent research," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 2-25, March.
    13. Black, Sandra E. & Liepmann, Hannah & Remigereau, Camille & Spitz-Oener, Alexandra, 2022. "Government aid and child refugees’ economic success later in life: Evidence from post-WWII GDR refugees," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Eder, Christoph & Halla, Martin, 2018. "On the Origin and Composition of the German East-West Population Gap," IZA Discussion Papers 12031, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Braun, Sebastian Till & Weber, Henning, 2021. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Michael Peters, 2022. "Market Size and Spatial Growth—Evidence From Germany's Post‐War Population Expulsions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2357-2396, September.
    17. Fuchs-Schündeln, N. & Hassan, T.A., 2016. "Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 923-1012, Elsevier.
    18. Christoph Eder, 2022. "Missing Men: Second World War Casualties and Structural Change," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 437-460, April.
    19. Christoph Eder & Martin Halla, 2018. "On the Origin of the German East-West Population Gap," Economics working papers 2018-17, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    20. Sascha O. Becker & Irena Grosfeld & Pauline Grosjean & Nico Voigtländer & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2020. "Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1430-1463, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration barrier; population shock; refugee migration; long-term regional development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jecgeo:v:20:y:2020:i:2:p:481-507.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/joeg .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.