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Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Mahir Binici
  • Michael Hutchison
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of credit rating changes on the sovereign spreads in the European Union and investigates the macro and financial factors that account for the time-varying effects of a given credit rating change. We find that changes of ratings are informative, economically important, and highly statistically significant in panel models, even after controlling for a host of domestic and global fundamental factors and investigating various functional forms, time and country groupings, and dynamic structures. Dynamic panel model estimates indicate that a credit rating upgrade decreases credit default swap (CDS) spreads by about 45 basis points, on average, for European Union (EU) countries. However, the association between credit rating changes and spreads shifted markedly between the pre-crisis and crisis periods. European countries had quite similar CDS responses to credit rating changes during the pre-crisis period, but large differences emerged during the crisis period between the now highly sensitive GIIPS group (Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Spain) and other European country groupings (EU and euro area excluding GIIPS, and the non-EU area). We also find a complicated non-linear pattern dependent on the level of the credit rating. The results are robust to the inclusion of credit ‘outlook’ or ‘watch’ signals by credit rating agencies. In addition, contagion from rating downgrades in GIIPS to other euro countries is not evident once own-country credit rating changes are taken into account. Copyright 2013, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael Hutchison, 2013. "Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 582-609, AUTUMN.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:29:y:2013:i:3:p:582-609
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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