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Do Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Implicitly Target the Price Level?

Author

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  • Francisco Ruge-Murcia

    (University of Montréal)

Abstract
This paper examines the time-series properties of the price level in five inflation-targeting countries. For the regimes in Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, the price level wanders away from the path implied by the inflation target, and test results suggest that it has a unit root. For the regime in Canada, the price level tracks the path implied by the target and test results partly support the view that it is covariance stationary. These results do not mean that Canada covertly follows a price-level targeting regime but suggest, instead, heterogeneity in the actual application of inflation targeting across countries. Survey data on inflation expectations are inconclusive as to whether agents treat the Canadian price level as a trend-reverting process.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2014. "Do Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Implicitly Target the Price Level?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 301-326, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2014:q:2:a:12
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : A speech at \"Fed Policy: A Shadow Review\" Cato Institute’s 37th Annual Monetary Conferenc," Speech 1104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Eurilton Araújo & Débora Gouveia, 2013. "Calvo-type rules and the forward-looking behavior of inflation targeting central banks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2042-2051.
    3. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2020. "Monetary Policy Strategies for the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 133-193, February.
    4. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech the 2019 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the Un," Speech 1038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    6. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech at “A Hot Economy: Sustainability and Trade-Offs,” a Fed Listens event sponsored by the Fede," Speech 1085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2013. "Some Lessons from Six Years of Practical Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 9756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    9. Jiri Bohm & Jan Filacek, 2012. "Price-Level Targeting–A Real Alternative to Inflation Targeting?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(1), pages 2-26, February.
    10. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices, a speech at \"The Bank of Finland Conference on Monetary Policy and Future of EMU [Economic and M," Speech 1075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Baum, Christopher F. & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2015. "What do Chinese macro announcements tell us about the world economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 100-122.
    12. Glenn D. Otto & Graham M. Voss, 2014. "Flexible inflation forecast targeting: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 398-421, May.
    13. Hess T. Chung & Brian M. Doyle & James Hebden & Michael Siemer, 2020. "Considerations Regarding Inflation Ranges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "Communication for Multi-Taskers: Perspectives on Dealing with Both Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Working Paper series 04_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Carl E. Walshn, 2016. "Goals versus Rules as Central Bank Preformance Measures," Book Chapters, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    16. Angelo Melino, 2011. "Moving Monetary Policy Forward: Why Small Steps - and a Lower Inflation Target - Make Sense for the Bank of Canada," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 319, January.
    17. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech at the \"Fed Listens: Distributional Consequences of the Cycle and Monetary Policy\&quo," Speech 1054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Graham M. Voss & M. Chaban, 2012. "National and Provincial Inflation in Canada: Experiences under Inflation Targeting," Department Discussion Papers 1201, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    19. Andrew Blake & Garreth Rule & Ole Rummel, 2015. "Inflation targeting and term premia estimates for Latin America," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 24(1), pages 1-21, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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