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Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Horváth

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague and IOS, Regensburg)

  • Katerina Šmídková

    (Czech National Bank and Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague)

  • Jan Zápal

    (London School of Economics, CERGE-EI, Prague and IAE-CSIC, Barcelona)

Abstract
We assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy using data on five inflation-targeting countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). We find that in all countries the voting records, namely the difference between the average voted-for and actually implemented policy rate, signal future monetary policy, making a case for publishing the records. This result holds even if we control for the financial market expectations, include the voting records from the period covering the current global financial crisis, and examine the differences in timing and style of the voting record announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horváth & Katerina Šmídková & Jan Zápal, 2012. "Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:4:a:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucjan T Orlowski & Anna Tsibulina, 2014. "Integration of Central and Eastern European and the Euro-Area Financial Markets: Repercussions from the Global Financial Crisis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(3), pages 376-395, September.
    2. Tillmann, Peter, 2021. "Financial markets and dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. A. Jung, 2013. "Policymakers’ Interest Rate Preferences: Recent Evidence for Three Monetary Policy Committees," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 150-197, September.
    4. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2018. "Central Banks' Predictability: An Assessment by Financial Market Participants," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 163-185, September.
    5. Bennani, Hamza & Fanta, Nicolas & Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a (post)-crisis era? The case of the ECB," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Predicting Bank of England's asset purchase decisions with MPC voting records," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1275-1278, September.
    7. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb11/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Petra Geraats, 2014. "Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4611, CESifo.
    9. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb10/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Roman Horváth & Katerina Šmídková & Jan Zápal, 2012. "Central Banks' Voting Records and Future Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Jan Zapal, 2014. "The dissent voting behaviour of central bankers: what do we really know?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 450-461, February.
    12. Roman HORVATH & Pavel KARAS, 2013. "Central Bank Communication and Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech National Bank," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 454-464, November.
    13. Horváth Roman & Šmídková Kateřina & Zápal Jan, 2016. "Voting in Central Banks: Theory versus Stylized Facts," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-62, October.
    14. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Roman Horvath, 2020. "Peer Effects in Central Banking," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(4), pages 764-814, December.
    17. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Financial Markets and Dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202048, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    18. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram, 2015. "Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?," Working Paper Series 1808, European Central Bank.
    19. Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova & Jan Zapal, 2012. "Is the U.S. Fed Voting Record Informative about Future Monetary Policy?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(6), pages 478-484, December.
    20. Carlos Madeira & Joao Madeira, 2015. "Dissent in FOMC Meeting and the Announcement Drift," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 749, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2014. "Monetary policy and stock returns under the MPC and inflation targeting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 109-116.
    22. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb11/1 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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