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Combination of Forecasts: An Extension

Author

Listed:
  • Sunil Gupta

    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Peter C. Wilton

    (School of Business Administration, University of California, 350 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, California 94720)

Abstract
Existing approaches to combining multiple forecasts generally offer either theoretical richness or empirical robustness, but not both together. In this paper, we propose a new method for combining forecasts which attempts to overcome this imbalance. The method allows easy inclusion of relevant subjective and empirical information about the forecasts, while providing weights which are: (i) intuitively meaningful, and (ii) not dependent upon large numbers of observations of prior forecast accuracy. Results of a simulation experiment show the method to be highly robust, and significantly superior to existing approaches under many conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sunil Gupta & Peter C. Wilton, 1987. "Combination of Forecasts: An Extension," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 356-372, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:3:p:356-372
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.33.3.356
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 29-50, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Capistrán, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 428-440.
    3. Blanc, Sebastian M. & Setzer, Thomas, 2016. "When to choose the simple average in forecast combination," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 3951-3962.
    4. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Equivalence of optimal forecast combinations under affine constraints," Working Papers BAWP-2019-02, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    5. Nicolás Álvarez & Antonio Fernandois & Andrés Sagner, 2018. "Medida de aversión al Riesgo Mediante Volatilidades Implícitas Realizadas," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 818, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2012. "Composite and Outlook Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196, Elsevier.
    8. Zhenni Ding & Huayou Chen & Ligang Zhou, 2023. "Using shapely values to define subgroups of forecasts for combining," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 905-923, July.
    9. Wang, Ju-Jie & Wang, Jian-Zhou & Zhang, Zhe-George & Guo, Shu-Po, 2012. "Stock index forecasting based on a hybrid model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 758-766.
    10. A. Frenkel A. & Ya. Sergienko V. & N. Volkova N. & O. Matveeva N. & А. Френкель А. & Я. Сергиенко В. & Н. Волкова Н. & О. Матвеева Н., 2016. "Как Определить Тенденции Развития Российской Экономики? // Trying To Determine The Development Trends Of The Russian Economy," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 20(5), pages 94-104.
    11. Ido Erev & Alvin Roth & Robert Slonim & Greg Barron, 2007. "Learning and equilibrium as useful approximations: Accuracy of prediction on randomly selected constant sum games," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 33(1), pages 29-51, October.
    12. Ryan T. Ball & Eric Ghysels, 2018. "Automated Earnings Forecasts: Beat Analysts or Combine and Conquer?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4936-4952, October.
    13. Alexander Frenkel A. & Natalia Volkova N. & Anton Surkov A. & Александр Френкель Адольфович & Наталия Волкова Николаевна & Антон Сурков Александрович, 2017. "Повышение точности прогнозирования интегральных показателей на основе объединения прогнозов // Improving the Prediction Accuracy of the Integral Indicators by the Means of Combining Forecasts," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 21(5), pages 118-127.
    14. Hui Zeng & Ben R Marshall & Nhut H Nguyen & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2022. "Are individual stock returns predictable?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 47(1), pages 135-162, February.
    15. Björn Fastrich & Peter Winker, 2014. "Combining Forecasts with Missing Data: Making Use of Portfolio Theory," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 127-152, August.
    16. Lubecke, Thomas H. & Nam, Kyung Doo & Markland, Robert E. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1998. "Combining foreign exchange rate forecasts using neural networks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-27.

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