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Az egyéni munkaerő-piaci aktivitás becslése mikroszimulációs modellkeretben
[Estimating individual labor market activity in Hungary in a microsimulation framework]

Author

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  • Vékás, Péter
Abstract
A tanulmány a magyarországi egyéni munkaerő-piaci aktivitás becslésével foglalkozik, amely a MIDAS-HU nyugdíj-mikroszimulációs modell munkaerő-piaci moduljának kulcsfontosságú építőeleme. Az elemzés érdekében többváltozós statisztikai módszereket alkalmaztunk egy óriás méretű, adminisztratív adatokat tartalmazó adathalmazon. A felhasznált adatok több mint négy évtized teljes körű demográfiai, foglalkoztatottsági és járulékfizetési adatait tartalmazzák egyénenkénti bontásban. Bár a becslést a MIDAS modellek logikájának megfelelően keresztmetszeti szemléletben hajtottuk végre, az egyenletekbe az eredeti belga modelltől eltérően hosszmetszeti adatokból nyert információkat is beépítettünk. Ezt egyrészt a rendelkezésünkre álló, jóval hosszabb idősorok információtartalmának optimális felhasználása, másrészt a hazai munkaerőpiacon - elsősorban az 1990-es évek elején - lezajlott jelentős strukturális átalakulások indokolták. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: H55, C15, C40, C53.

Suggested Citation

  • Vékás, Péter, 2015. "Az egyéni munkaerő-piaci aktivitás becslése mikroszimulációs modellkeretben [Estimating individual labor market activity in Hungary in a microsimulation framework]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1291-1308.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1600
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2015.12.1291
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
    2. Augusztinovics, Mária & Máté, Levente & Gyombolai, Márton, 2008. "Járulékfizetés és nyugdíjjogosultság 1997-2006 [Pension contributions and acquired pension rights 1997-2006]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 665-689.
    3. Kertesi, Gábor & Köllő, János, 2006. "Felsőoktatási expanzió, "diplomás munkanélküliség" és a diplomák piaci értéke [Expansion of higher education, graduate unemployment and the market value of a degree]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 201-225.
    4. Greet De Vil & Gijs Dekkers & Raphael Desmet, 2010. "Working Paper 10-10 - The long-term adequacy of the Belgian public pension system: An analysis based on the MIDAS model," Working Papers 1010, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    5. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    6. Kamila Fialová & Martina Mysíková, 2009. "Labor Market Participation: The Impact of Social Benefits in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2009/04, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2009.
    7. Galasi, Péter & Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor & Bakó, Tamás, 2013. "Az MTA KRTK KTI munkaerő-piaci előrejelző rendszere [The Institute of Economics labour-market forecasting system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 117-133.
    8. Kertesi, Gábor & Varga, Júlia, 2005. "Foglalkoztatás és iskolázottság Magyarországon [Employment and educational attainment in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 633-662.
    9. Köllő, János & Augusztinovics, Mária, 2007. "Munkapiaci pálya és nyugdíj, 1970-2020 [Labour-market performance and pensions, 1970-2020]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 529-559.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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