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Estimating Tropical Cyclone Damages Under Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere Using Reported Damages

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  • S. Seo
Abstract
This paper estimates the damages from tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Southern Hemisphere under future climate change scenarios based on the historical TC records in Australia. From the best-track TC data, we examine the changes in frequency, intensity, and economic damage of the TCs that made landfall since 1970. From the detailed individual TC reports, damage estimates are constructed based on reported damages. We find that the TC frequency has significantly declined over time. The intensity, however, does not show a significant trend. Average damage per TC has declined significantly from 43 million AUD in the 1970s to 11 million in the 1990s. This paper finds that 1 % decrease in minimum central pressure leads to 32.7 % increase in economic damage, which is more than three times larger than that found in the US hurricane study with regards to maximum wind speeds. For future damage projections, characteristics of the 14,000 TCs generated under seven different AOGCM climate models are applied. All seven climate models predict a decrease in TC frequency in the Southern Hemisphere but intensity predictions vary. By the end of the twenty second century, changes in climate are expected to increase the TC damage under the MRI ( $$+$$ + 94 %), the MIROC ( $$+$$ + 73 %), and the CSIRO ( $$+$$ + 66 %) model due to increased intensity. However, TC damage is expected to fall under the GFDL ( $$-$$ - 92 %) and the CNRM ( $$-$$ - 85 %) model due to decreased intensity and frequency. Adaptation will be a key determinant of the future vulnerability to TCs in the Southern Hemisphere. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • S. Seo, 2014. "Estimating Tropical Cyclone Damages Under Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere Using Reported Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(3), pages 473-490, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:58:y:2014:i:3:p:473-490
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-013-9744-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Ranson & Lisa Tarquinio & Audrey Lew, 2016. "Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Losses," NCEE Working Paper Series 201602, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised May 2016.
    2. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2016. "China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 169-181, November.
    3. S. Niggol Seo & Laura A. Bakkensen, 2016. "Did adaptation strategies work? High fatalities from tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean and future vulnerability under global warming," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1341-1355, June.
    4. S. Niggol Seo, 2017. "Measuring Policy Benefits Of The Cyclone Shelter Program In The North Indian Ocean: Protection From Intense Winds Or High Storm Surges?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-18, November.

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