[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedlrv/00053.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relative Income Traps

Author

Listed:
  • Maria A. Arias
  • Yi Wen
Abstract
Despite economic growth in the post-World War II period, few developing countries have been able to catch up to the income levels in the United States or other advanced economies. Such countries remain trapped at a relative low- or middle-income level. In this article, the authors redefine the concept of income traps as situations in which income levels relative to the United States remain constantly low and with no clear sign of convergence. This approach allows them to study the issue of economic convergence (or lack of it) directly. The authors describe evidence pointing to the existence of both relative low- and middle-income traps and examine cross-country historical transitions between income groups at the global and regional levels. Finally, they point out challenges to the benchmark neoclassical growth theory, which predicts convergence to the developed world over time, and discuss existing theories with the potential to explain income traps.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria A. Arias & Yi Wen, 2016. "Relative Income Traps," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(1), pages 41-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:00053
    DOI: 10.20955/r.2016.41-60
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2016-03-22//relative-income-traps.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/r.2016.41-60
    File Function: http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/r.2016.41-60
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20955/r.2016.41-60?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Klaus Desmet & Stephen Parente, 2012. "The evolution of markets and the revolution of industry: a unified theory of growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 205-234, September.
    4. Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2005. "Neighbors as Negatives: Relative Earnings and Well-Being," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 963-1002.
    5. Allen,Robert C., 2009. "The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521868273.
    6. Stokey, Nancy L., 2001. "A quantitative model of the British industrial revolution, 1780-1850," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 55-109, December.
    7. Patrick Pintus & Yi Wen, 2013. "Leveraged Borrowing and Boom-Bust Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 617-633, October.
    8. Fernando Gabriel Im & David Rosenblatt, 2015. "Middle-Income Traps: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-39.
    9. Tamura, Robert, 1996. "From decay to growth: A demographic transition to economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1237-1261.
    10. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 2," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 307, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Jesus Felipe & Arnelyn Abdon & Utsav Kumar, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_715, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Indermit Gill & Homi Kharas, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798.
    13. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 1," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 306, Asian Development Bank.
    14. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Fernanda Cimini & Jorge Britto & Leonardo Costa Ribeiro, 2020. "Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment [Sistemas complexos e armadilha da renda media: as raízes de longo prazo do subdesenvolvimento latino-a," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 30(spe), pages 1225-1256, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mehmet Hanefi Topal, 2020. "The Middle Income Trap: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75.
    2. Cyn‐Young Park & Rogelio V. Mercado, 2020. "Economic Convergence, Capital Accumulation, and Income Traps: Empirical Evidence," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(1), pages 26-58, March.
    3. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Lili Wang & Yi Wen, 2018. "Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: A Cross-Country Analysis on the Patterns of Industrial Upgrading," Working Papers 2018-1, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    6. Charles Gore, 2017. "Late industrialisation, urbanisation and the middle-income trap: an analytical approach and the case of Vietnam," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 10(1), pages 35-57.
    7. Pierre-Richard AGENOR, 2016. "Caught in the Middle? The Economics of Middle-Income Traps," Working Papers P142, FERDI.
    8. Razafimandimby Andrianjaka, Riana & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "“What difference does it make (to be in the Middle Income Trap)?”: An empirical exploration of the drivers of growth slowdowns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 225-236.
    9. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B., 2021. "Convergence among themselves and Middle-income trap of South-East Asian Nations: Findings from a New approach," MPRA Paper 109372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. David Bulman & Maya Eden & Ha Nguyen, 2017. "Transitioning from low-income growth to high-income growth: is there a middle-income trap?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 5-28, January.
    11. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2017. "Caught In The Middle? The Economics Of Middle-Income Traps," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 771-791, July.
    12. Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem & Sancar, Canan, 2021. "The impact of export dynamics on trade balance in emerging and developed countries: An evaluation with middle income trap perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 357-375.
    13. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    14. Satoru Kumagai, 2015. "The Middle-Income Trap from the Viewpoint of Trade Structures: Are the Geese Trapped or Still Flying?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-23.
    15. Janusz Heller & Rafal Warzala, 2018. "Is Poland in a middle income trap? A theoretical and empirical analysis," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17(4), pages 367-381, December.
    16. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "The Deep Determinants at More Subtle Stages of Development: The Example of the Middle-Income Trap Phenomenon," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 11/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    17. World Bank, 2014. "Turkey’s Transitions : Integration, Inclusion, Institutions," World Bank Publications - Reports 20691, The World Bank Group.
    18. Tan Khee Giap & Sasidaran Gopalan & Nursyahida Ahmad, 2018. "Growth Slowdown Analysis for Indonesia’s Subnational Economies: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-36, September.
    19. Gill,Indermit S. & Kharas,Homi, 2015. "The middle-income trap turns ten," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7403, The World Bank.
    20. Prajapati Vishwajeet Singh & Priya Ashutosh & Pradhan Vikas, 2023. "The middle-income trap – a problem of definition and empirical research," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 16(3), pages 459-472, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:00053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Scott St. Louis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.