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Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Michael P. Dooley
  • David Folkerts-Landau
  • Peter M. Garber
Abstract
It is generally accepted that adjustment must occur to ultimately remove the imbalances from the international monetary system. The dispute has been between a view that the system will end abruptly and soon and a view that is will last for years more with a smooth adjustment in interest rates and exchange rates. Here, we presume that the basic system that has dominated at least the last five years will continue for years more, while converging to a sustainable equilibrium. With this system as a background, we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical cyclical experience for an extended period but converge slowly toward normal levels. During this adjustment interval, the US will continue to absorb a disproportionate share of world savings. Moreover, after a substantial initial appreciation, the floating currencies remain constant relative to the dollar in the undisturbed background system. An improvement in the investment climate in Europe during the adjustment period would generate an immediate depreciation of the euro relative to the dollar. In real terms, the dollar and the floating currencies will eventually have to depreciate relative to the managed currencies. But most of the adjustment in the US trade account will come as US absorption responds to increases in real interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2006. "Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2006:n:51:x:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts‐Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2009. "Will Sub‐Prime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 655-666, September.
    2. Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 508-547, December.
    3. Giovanni Pittaluga & Elena Seghezza, 2012. "Euro vs Dollar: An Improbable Threat," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 89-108, February.
    4. Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Exchange rates and global imbalances: the importance of asset valuation effects and interest rate changes," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. n.a.m, Naseem & m.s, Hamizah, 2013. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 52447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Paulo Gala, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Levels And Economic Development: Theoretical Analysis And Empirical Evidence," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 037, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Michael P. Dooley & Peter M. Garber & David Folkerts-Landau, 2009. "Las dos crisis de la economía internacional," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 207-227, Octubre-d.
    8. José De Gregorio R, 2009. "A veinte años de la autonomía del Banco Central de Chile," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 170-174, Octubre-d.
    9. Nabil Aflouk & Jacques Mazier, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments and economic growth: A threshold panel approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1333-1347.
    10. Philippe Moutot & Giovanni Vitale, 2009. "Estrategia de política monetaria en un ambiente global," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 175-206, Octubre-d.
    11. Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Global current account imbalances and exchange rate adjustment: the role of oil suppliers," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Jorge Braga de Macedo, 2010. "Global crisis and national policy responses: together alone?," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp546, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    13. Paulo Gala & Claudio R. Lucinda, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: Old and New Econometric Evidence," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(4), pages 165-187.
    14. Sophie B鲥au & Antonia López Villavicencio & Val鲩e Mignon, 2012. "Currency misalignments and growth: a new look using nonlinear panel data methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(27), pages 3503-3511, September.
    15. Dosse Toulaboe, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignment of Asian currencies," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 31(1), pages 39-52, May.
    16. Paola Subacchi & David Vines, 2023. "Fifty years on: what the Bretton Woods System can teach us about global macroeconomic policy-making," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 39(2), pages 164-182.
    17. Hickey, Ronan, 2007. "How Sustainable are Global Imbalances?," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-119, October.
    18. Jean-François Goux, 2008. "Ruptures épaisses et stationnarité en tendance : le cas du taux de change euro-dollar," Post-Print halshs-00333576, HAL.
    19. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Luis Pereira & Afonso Reis, 2009. "Comparing Exchange Market Pressure across Five African Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 645-682, November.
    20. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "The international role of the euro: a status report," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 317, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Foreign exchange rates; Balance of trade; International trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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