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Un sistema de advertencia oportuna de crisis cambiarias para México

Author

Listed:
  • Acevedo , Ernesto

    (UNAM)

  • Aguilar, Marlon

    (SHCP)

Abstract
High economic costs associated with recent currency crises have motivated the creation of several early warning systems (EWS) to prevent their occurrence. However, to date the structure of the EWS does not detect with enough anticipation the presence of economic fragilities; limiting their usefulness in the implementation of economic policy corrections. The warning index proposed in this paper corrects this flaw, given that it detects economic fragilities at least nine moths in advance. The pattern of the index for the Mexican economy is compared with those of the EWS proposed y Sach, Tornell y Velasco; Kaminsky, Lizondo y Reinhart; and, Esquivel y Larraín, in order to evaluate its effectiveness.// Los altos costos de las crisis cambiarias motivaron la elaboración de diversos sistemas de advertencia oportuna para detectar los elementos que originan las crisis y así estar en posibilidad de evitar su ocurrencia. Sin embargo, los sistemas que se han desarrollado hasta ahora advierten con muy poca antelación la presencia de desequilibrios en la economía y, por tanto, dejan muy poco margen de maniobra para que las autoridades encargadas de la elaboración de la política económica puedan instrumentar las medidas correctivas correspondientes. Esa deficiencia se corrige con el índice de advertencia que aquí se presenta, ya que detecta las fragilidades de la economía al menos con nueve meses de anticipación a la ocurrencia de la crisis. El desempeño que este índice tiene en la economía mexicana se compara con aquel que resulta de los modelos de advertencia establecidos por Sachs, Tornell y Velasco; Kaminsky, Lizondo y Reinhart, y Esquivel y Larraín, con la finalidad de evaluar su efectividad

Suggested Citation

  • Acevedo , Ernesto & Aguilar, Marlon, 2003. "Un sistema de advertencia oportuna de crisis cambiarias para México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(279), pages 613-634, julio-sep.
    • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:70:y:2003:i:279:p:613-634
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    Keywords

    métodos econométricos y estadísticos: temas especiales; objetivos; elaboración; congruencia y coordinación de políticas fiscales; tipo de cambio; ajuste de la cuenta corriente;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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