[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v113y2019icp330-343.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term impacts of an unanticipated spike in food prices on child growth in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Yamauchi, Futoshi
  • Larson, Donald F.
Abstract
Unanticipated spikes in food prices can increase malnutrition among the poor, with lasting consequences; however, livelihood strategies that include producing food for home consumption are expected to offer a measure of protection. To test this, we use anthropometric and consumption data from Indonesia collected before and after the 2007/08 food price crisis. Based on standardized height and weight measures, our results indicate that soaring food prices had a significant and negative impact on child growth among households that did not produce food for home consumption. A corresponding effect was undetectable for the households that did. The results remain robust when income effects from increased commercial sales, and possible attritions through migration and fostering are considered. Further, local food price changes were uncorrelated with the share of producing-households in the village and village’s initial average child nutrition status, suggesting that observed outcomes are directly attributable to market events and livelihood strategies. Gender differences were not detected. Our findings imply that the food price crises can have negative impacts on children, potentially leading to lifelong disadvantages. Livelihood choices that include food production provide protection against price hikes but may trap households on low income paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Yamauchi, Futoshi & Larson, Donald F., 2019. "Long-term impacts of an unanticipated spike in food prices on child growth in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 330-343.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:113:y:2019:i:c:p:330-343
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.09.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X18303498
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.09.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Coady & Margaret Grosh & John Hoddinott, 2004. "Targeting of Transfers in Developing Countries : Review of Lessons and Experience," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14902.
    2. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    3. Gitonga, Zachary M. & De Groote, Hugo & Kassie, Menale & Tefera, Tadele, 2013. "Impact of metal silos on households’ maize storage, storage losses and food security: An application of a propensity score matching," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 44-55.
    4. Futoshi Yamauchi, 2008. "Early Childhood Nutrition, Schooling, and Sibling Inequality in a Dynamic Context: Evidence from South Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 657-682, April.
    5. Carter, Michael R. & Little, Peter D. & Mogues, Tewodaj & Negatu, Workneh, 2007. "Poverty Traps and Natural Disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 835-856, May.
    6. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    7. Kym Anderson & Maros Ivanic & William J. Martin, 2014. "Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 311-339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    9. Tom Slayton, 2009. "Rice Crisis Forensics: How Asian Governments Carelessly Set the World Rice Market on Fire," Working Papers 163, Center for Global Development.
    10. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 136-146, April.
    11. Rafael E. de Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2011. "Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 387-402, August.
    12. Binswanger, Hans P & McIntire, John, 1987. "Behavioral and Material Determinants of Production Relations in Land-Abundant Tropical Agriculture," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 73-99, October.
    13. Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2014. "World food prices and poverty in Indonesia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(1), pages 1-21, January.
    14. Aromolaran, Adebayo B., 2004. "Household income, women's income share and food calorie intake in South Western Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 507-530, October.
    15. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Was the global food crisis really a crisis?: Simulations versus self-reporting," IFPRI discussion papers 1087, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Piesse, Jenifer & Thirtle, Colin, 2009. "Three bubbles and a panic: An explanatory review of recent food commodity price events," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 119-129, April.
    17. Emmanuel Skoufias & Sailesh Tiwari & Hassan Zaman, 2012. "Crises, Food Prices, and the Income Elasticity of Micronutrients: Estimates from Indonesia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 26(3), pages 415-442.
    18. Subha Mani, 2012. "Is there Complete, Partial, or No Recovery from Childhood Malnutrition? – Empirical Evidence from Indonesia," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 691-715, October.
    19. Fabrizio Bresciani & Gershon Feder & Daniel O. Gilligan & Hanan G. Jacoby & Tongroj Onchan & Jaime Quizon, 2002. "Weathering the Storm: The Impact of the East Asian Crisis on Farm Households in Indonesia and Thailand," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20.
    20. Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 103-114, Summer.
    21. Dawe, David & Maltsoglou, Irini, 2014. "Marketing margins and the welfare analysis of food price shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-55.
    22. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    23. Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Donald F, 1992. "On the Transmission of World Agricultural Prices," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 399-422, September.
    24. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
    25. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    26. Timmer, C. Peter, 2010. "Reflections on food crises past," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-11, February.
    27. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Binswanger, Hans P, 1993. "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 56-78, January.
    28. Futoshi Yamauchi, 2012. "Prenatal Seasonality, Child Growth, and Schooling Investments: Evidence from Rural Indonesia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 1323-1341, September.
    29. Block, Steven A. & Kiess, Lynnda & Webb, Patrick & Kosen, Soewarta & Moench-Pfanner, Regina & Bloem, Martin W. & Peter Timmer, C., 2004. "Macro shocks and micro outcomes: child nutrition during Indonesia's crisis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 21-44, March.
    30. Donald F. Larson & Jock R. Anderson & Panos Varangis, 2004. "Policies on Managing Risk in Agricultural Markets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 19(2), pages 199-230.
    31. Warr, Peter G., 2005. "Food policy and poverty in Indonesia: a general equilibrium analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1-23.
    32. Kumar, Neha & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2013. "Gendered impacts of the 2007–2008 food price crisis: Evidence using panel data from rural Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 11-22.
    33. Warr, Peter G., 2005. "Food Policy And Poverty: A General Equilibrium Analysis For Indonesia," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 139296, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    34. Helen Jensen & Justo Manrique, 1998. "Demand for food commodities by income groups in Indonesia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 491-501.
    35. Carter, Michael R. & Lybbert, Travis J., 2012. "Consumption versus asset smoothing: testing the implications of poverty trap theory in Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 255-264.
    36. Neil McCulloch, 2008. "Rice Prices And Poverty In Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 45-64.
    37. Donald F. Larson & Sara Savastano & Siobhan Murray & Amparo Palacios-López, 2016. "On the Determinants of Low Productivity in Maize Farming in Uganda: The Role of Markets, Fertilizer Use and Gender," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Keijiro Otsuka & Donald F. Larson (ed.), In Pursuit of an African Green Revolution, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 165-182, Springer.
    38. Lanjouw, Peter & Ravallion, Martin, 1995. "Poverty and Household Size," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1415-1434, November.
    39. Dawe, David, 2009. "Cereal Price Transmission in Several Large Asian Countries during the Global Food Crisis," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, June.
    40. Keijiro Otsuka & Donald F. Larson (ed.), 2016. "In Pursuit of an African Green Revolution," Natural Resource Management and Policy, Springer, edition 1, number 978-4-431-55693-0, March.
    41. Anna D'Souza & Dean Jolliffe, 2014. "Food Insecurity in Vulnerable Populations: Coping with Food Price Shocks in Afghanistan," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(3), pages 790-812.
    42. Quentin Wodon & Hassan Zaman, 2010. "Higher Food Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa: Poverty Impact and Policy Responses," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 157-176, February.
    43. Fan Yang & Eddy Bekkers & Martina Brockmeier & Joseph Francois, 2015. "Food Price Pass‐Through and the Role of Domestic Margin Services," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 796-811, September.
    44. David Dawe, 2009. "Cereal Price Transmission in Several Large Asian Countries during the Global Food Crisis," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, June.
    45. Donald F. Larson, 2007. "On inverse carrying charges and spatial arbitrage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-336, April.
    46. Miranda, Mario J. & Farrin, Kathleen M. & Larson, Donald F. & Chen, Shu-Ling, 2013. "Differential Effects of Food Security Policies on Subsistence Farmers and the Urban Poor," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149736, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    47. Marc F. Bellemare, 2015. "Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 1-21.
    48. Larson, Donald F. & Plessmann, Frank, 2009. "Do farmers choose to be inefficient? Evidence from Bicol," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 24-32, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tan Ngoc Vu & Chi Minh Ho & Thang Cong Nguyen & Duc Hong Vo, 2020. "The Determinants of Risk Transmission between Oil and Agricultural Prices: An IPVAR Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Negi, Digvijay S., 2022. "Global food price surge, in-kind transfers and household welfare: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Jaah, Mkupete & Fintel, Dieter von & Burger, Ronelle, 2021. "Maize Price Shock, Agriculture Production and Children Nutrition Outcomes in Tanzania," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314974, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Digvijay S. Negi, 2022. "Global food price surge, in-kind transfers, and household welfare evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-006, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Dawe, 2014. "Transmission of global food prices, supply response and impacts on the poor," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 5, pages 100-121, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Rie Muraoka & Tomoya Matsumoto & Songqing Jin & Keijiro Otsuka, 2016. "On the Possibility of a Maize Green Revolution in the Highlands of Kenya: An Assessment of Emerging Intensive Farming Systems," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Keijiro Otsuka & Donald F. Larson (ed.), In Pursuit of an African Green Revolution, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 145-164, Springer.
    3. Larson, Donald & Savastano, Sara & Murray, Siobhan & Palacios-Lopez, Amparo, 2015. "Are Women Less Productive Farmers? How Markets and Risk Affect Fertilizer Use, Productivity, and Measured Gender Effects in Uganda," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212032, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.
    5. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," PSE Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.
    6. Anania, Giovanni, 2013. "Agricultural Export Restrictions and the WTO: What Options Do Policy-Makers Have For Promoting Food Security?," Price Volatility and Beyond 320191, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    7. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka & Pierre Boulanger & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term," FOODSECURE Working papers 15, LEI Wageningen UR.
    8. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    9. Negi, Digvijay S., 2022. "Global food price surge, in-kind transfers and household welfare: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Derek Headey & Marie Ruel, 2023. "Food inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Pham Van Ha & Hoa Thi Minh Nguyen & Tom Kompas & Tuong Nhu Che & Bui Trinh, 2015. "Rice Production, Trade and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 280-307, June.
    12. Verpoorten, Marijke & Arora, Abhimanyu & Stoop, Nik & Swinnen, Johan, 2013. "Self-reported food insecurity in Africa during the food price crisis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 51-63.
    13. Nakelse, Tebila & Dalton, Timothy J. & Hendricks, Nathan P. & Hodjo, Manzamasso, 2018. "Are smallholder farmers better or worse off from an increase in the international price of cereals?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 213-223.
    14. Derek Headey & Olivier Ecker & Jean-Francois Trinh Tan, 2014. "Shocks to the system: monitoring food security in a volatile world," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 3, pages 41-71, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Elleby, Christian, 2014. "Poverty and Price Transmission," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Shinya TAKAMATSU, 2018. "Impacts of the Global Food Price Crisis on Household Welfare and Poverty in Lao PDR," GSICS Working Paper Series 33, Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University.
    17. Estrades, Carmen & Terra, María Inés, 2012. "Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 58-66.
    18. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2019. "Determinants of international price volatility transmissions: the role of self-sufficiency rates in wheat-importing countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Dethier, Jean-Jacques & Effenberger, Alexandra, 2012. "Agriculture and development: A brief review of the literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 175-205.
    20. Sam, Abdoul G. & Abidoye, Babatunde & Mashaba, Sihle, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106700, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food price crisis; Child growth; Human capital; Safety nets; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:113:y:2019:i:c:p:330-343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.