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Examining rural Sahelian out-migration in the context of climate change: An analysis of the linkages between rainfall and out-migration in two Malian villages from 1981 to 2009

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  • Grace, Kathryn
  • Hertrich, Véronique
  • Singare, Djeneba
  • Husak, Greg
Abstract
Subsistence farmers in Sahelian Africa are highly vulnerable to the rainfall effects associated with climate change. Permanent or temporary out-migration can provide an individual or family the opportunity to mitigate against these effects. One major challenge to quantifying the impact of climate change on out-migration is lack of appropriate spatial and temporal data. Out-migration data must be adequately detailed to include both long- and short-term departures. The climate data must provide fine scale, community-specific detail. To examine the climate variability as a factor of out-migration we examine individual- and community-level responses using highly detailed, full migration histories of 3150 individuals with fine-scale rainfall data. Using this multi-method approach we examine the probability of out-migration as well as out-migration duration and destination as they relate to locally measured rainfall. The results suggest that out-migration behavior does not generally change because of failures or variation in the rainy season.

Suggested Citation

  • Grace, Kathryn & Hertrich, Véronique & Singare, Djeneba & Husak, Greg, 2018. "Examining rural Sahelian out-migration in the context of climate change: An analysis of the linkages between rainfall and out-migration in two Malian villages from 1981 to 2009," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 187-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:109:y:2018:i:c:p:187-196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.04.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sheng Liu & Ming Bai & Min Yao & Ke Huang, 2021. "Identifying the natural and anthropogenic factors influencing the spatial disparity of population hollowing in traditional villages within a prefecture-level city," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Selod, Harris & Shilpi, Forhad, 2021. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries: Lessons from the literature," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Ichaou Mounirou, 2022. "Do climatic factors induce rural migration? Empirical evidence from cotton farmers in Benin," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 393-409, November.
    5. Mueller, Valerie & Sheriff, Glenn & Dou, Xiaoya & Gray, Clark, 2020. "Temporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Jude Mikal & Kathryn Grace & Jack DeWaard & Molly Brown & Gabriel Sangli, 2020. "Domestic migration and mobile phones: A qualitative case study focused on recent migrants to Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Liu, Ziming & Yu, Lu, 2020. "Stay or Leave? The Role of Air Pollution in Urban Migration Choices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

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