[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v42y2016icp536-548.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of middle class in democratic diffusion

Author

Listed:
  • Chun, Natalie
  • Hasan, Rana
  • Rahman, Muhammad Habibur
  • Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet A.
Abstract
The modernization hypothesis and the democratic domino theory have been at the forefront in explaining the democratization around the globe. This paper empirically investigates the ‘middle class-driven modernization’ hypothesis and the ‘middle class-driven democratic domino’ effect in a panel of 145 countries over the period 1985 to 2013. Using several middle class measures and a dynamic panel estimator, we show that the ‘middle class-driven modernization’ hypothesis finds strong empirical support in the sample of developing countries excluding Eastern Europe and Central Asia, while the ‘middle class-driven democratic domino’ effect finds support in the sample of developing countries excluding East Asia and the Pacific.

Suggested Citation

  • Chun, Natalie & Hasan, Rana & Rahman, Muhammad Habibur & Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet A., 2016. "The role of middle class in democratic diffusion," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 536-548.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:42:y:2016:i:c:p:536-548
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.10.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056015001719
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2015.10.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    2. Birdsall, N. & Graham, C. & Pettinato, S., 2000. "Stuck in the Tunnel: Is Globalization Muddling the Middle Class?," Papers 14, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
    4. Keefer, Philip & Knack, Stephen, 2002. "Polarization, Politics and Property Rights: Links between Inequality and Growth," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 111(1-2), pages 127-154, March.
    5. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2009. "Democratic Capital: The Nexus of Political and Economic Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 88-126, July.
    6. Peter T. Leeson & Andrea M. Dean, 2009. "The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 533-551, July.
    7. Loayza, Norman & Rigolini, Jamele & Llorente, Gonzalo, 2012. "Do Middle Classes Bring Institutional Reforms?," IZA Discussion Papers 6430, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    9. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 317-335, December.
    10. Jess Benhabib & Adam Przeworski, 2006. "The political economy of redistribution under democracy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 29(2), pages 271-290, October.
    11. Benhabib, Jess & Rustichini, Aldo, 1996. "Social Conflict and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 125-142, March.
    12. Branko Milanovic & Shlomo Yitzhak, 2006. "Decomposing World Income Distribution: Does The World Have A Middle Class?," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 2(2), pages 88-110.
    13. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    14. B. Peter Rosendorff, 2001. "Choosing Democracy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-29, March.
    15. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 158-183, December.
    16. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 1989. "Income Distribution, Market Size, and Industrialization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(3), pages 537-564.
    17. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2007. "Global growth and distribution : are China and India reshaping the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4392, The World Bank.
    18. Ravallion, Martin, 2010. "The Developing World's Bulging (but Vulnerable) Middle Class," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 445-454, April.
    19. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237.
    20. Datt, Gaurav, 1998. "Computational tools for poverty measurement and analysis," FCND discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    21. William Easterly & Jozef Ritzen & Michael Woolcock, 2006. "Social Cohesion, Institutions, And Growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 103-120, July.
    22. Paul Collins & Pan Suk Kim & Andy Sumner, 2012. "Poverty, Vulnerability And Class: The Expanding Non‐Polar Groups And Development," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4-5), pages 444-454, October.
    23. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, September.
    24. Loayza, Norman & Rigolini, Jamele & Llorente, Gonzalo, 2012. "Do middle classes bring about institutional reforms?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 440-444.
    25. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2008. "What Is Middle Class about the Middle Classes around the World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    26. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    27. Fariha Kamal & Mary E. Lovely & Puman Ouyang, 2017. "Does deeper integration enhance spatial advantages? Market access and wage growth in China," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Mary E Lovely (ed.), International Economic Integration and Domestic Performance, chapter 14, pages 255-270, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    28. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    29. Simmons, Beth A. & Dobbin, Frank & Garrett, Geoffrey, 2006. "Introduction: The International Diffusion of Liberalism," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 781-810, October.
    30. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    31. M. Shahe Emran & Zhaoyang Hou, 2013. "Access to Markets and Rural Poverty: Evidence from Household Consumption in China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 682-697, May.
    32. Evelyne Huber & Dietrich Rueschemeyer & John D. Stephens, 1993. "The Impact of Economic Development on Democracy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 71-86, Summer.
    33. Yi Feng & Paul J. Zak, 1999. "The Determinants of Democratic Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(2), pages 162-177, April.
    34. repec:bla:revinw:v:48:y:2002:i:2:p:155-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    36. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    37. Antonio Estache & D. Leipziger, 2009. "Stuck in the Middle: Is Fiscal Policy Failing the Middle Class?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/44102, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    38. Homi Kharas, 2010. "The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 285, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Loayza, Norman & Rigolini, Jamele & Llorente, Gonzalo, 2012. "Do middle classes bring about institutional reforms?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 440-444.
    2. Jean-Philippe BERROU & Matthieu CLÉMENT & François COMBARNOUS & Dominique DARBON & Yves-André FAURE & Éric ROUGIER, 2019. "L’essor des classes moyennes dans les pays en développement et émergents : une étude comparative des enjeux d’identification, de caractérisation et de politiques publiques," Working Paper d25da1cf-d9d8-4336-9930-b, Agence française de développement.
    3. C�line Bonnefond & Matthieu Cl�ment & Fran�ois Combarnous, 2015. "In search of the elusive Chinese urban middle class: an exploratory analysis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 41-59, March.
    4. Reham Rizk & Ricardo Nogales, 2017. "Revisiting the Middle-Class Myth: Evidence From A Cross-Country Analysis of African Social Progress," Working Papers 1139, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 2003.
    5. Veronica Amarante, 2014. "Revisiting Inequality and Growth: Evidence for Developing Countries," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 571-589, December.
    6. Andy Sumner, 2012. "The Buoyant Billions: How “Middle Class” Are the New Middle Classes in Developing Countries? (And Why Does It Matter?)," Working Papers 309, Center for Global Development.
    7. Max Kohler & Stefan Sperlich & Jisu Yoon, 2019. "A Varying Coefficient Model for Assessing the Returns to Growth to Account for Poverty and Inequality," Papers 1903.02390, arXiv.org.
    8. Islam, Md. Rabiul & McGillivray, Mark, 2020. "Wealth inequality, governance and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Fabrice Murtin & Romain Wacziarg, 2014. "The democratic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 141-181, June.
    10. Hyungmin Park, 2024. "Theory of developmental dictatorship," Discussion Papers 2024-10, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    11. Gustavo Canavire‐Bacarreza & Michael Jetter & Marcos Robles, 2018. "When Does Economic Growth Reduce Poverty and Strengthen the Middle Class? A State‐Level, Sector‐Specific Analysis of Peru," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(4), pages 1067-1087, April.
    12. Roberto Dell'Anno & Adalgiso Amendola, 2015. "Social Exclusion and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation in European Economies," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 274-301, June.
    13. Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2016. "Political capitalism: The interaction between income inequality, economic freedom and democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 115-132.
    14. Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2016. "Democracy and growth: Evidence from a machine learning indicator," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(S), pages 85-107.
    15. Diaz-Serrano, Luis & Pérez, Jessica, 2013. "Do More Educated Leaders Raise Citizens' Education?," IZA Discussion Papers 7661, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Natalie Chun & Rana Hasan & Muhammad Habibur Rahman & Mehmet Ali Ulubaşoğlu, 2017. "The Role of Middle Class in Economic Development: What Do Cross-Country Data Show?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 404-424, May.
    17. Loayza, Norman & Rigolini, Jamele & Llorente, Gonzalo, 2012. "Do Middle Classes Bring Institutional Reforms?," IZA Discussion Papers 6430, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5m0od0o9jn9pqbdmos7fpt28hg is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Díaz Serrano, Lluís & Pérez Reynosa, Jessica Helen, 2018. "Impact of Duration of Primary Education on Enrollment in Secondary Education: Panel Data Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 2072/351582, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    20. Andrew Berg & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Yorbol Yakhshilikov, 2018. "Redistribution, inequality, and growth: new evidence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 259-305, September.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5m0od0o9jn9pqbdmos7fpt28hg is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Florencia Torche & Luis F. Lopez-Calva, 2013. "Stability and Vulnerability of the Latin American Middle Class," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 409-435, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Middle class; Modernization hypothesis; Spatial domino theory; Democracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:42:y:2016:i:c:p:536-548. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.