[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reecon/v77y2023i3p402-418.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?

Author

Listed:
  • Mateane, Lebogang
Abstract
I estimate a transition probability matrix associated with a two-state Markov process of emerging market economies (EMEs) volatility. The different states of EMEs volatility, generate switches in central bank preferences between approximated constant relative risk aversion and increasing relative risk aversion expected utility. Therefore, I construct and propose constrained portfolio selection frameworks with skewness, for the currency composition of FX reserves over different EMEs volatility states for Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa. These EMEs have constituted as part of the “Fragile Five”. Thus, I propose progressive risk management procedures for these EMEs. These portfolio selection frameworks satisfy Pratt–Arrow measures of risk aversion and are constrained by each country’s currency composition of foreign debt. Using different methods of computing expected FX reserves returns, traditional strategic FX reserve assets and different maturity structures, I simulate optimal FX reserve weights for each EME and validate my proposal.

Suggested Citation

  • Mateane, Lebogang, 2023. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 402-418.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:402-418
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2023.06.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090944323000479
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rie.2023.06.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walter Briec & Kristiaan Kerstens & Octave Jokung, 2007. "Mean-Variance-Skewness Portfolio Performance Gauging: A General Shortage Function and Dual Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(1), pages 135-149, January.
    2. Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 508-547, December.
    3. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2020. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy," Springer Books, in: Jacob Bjorheim (ed.), Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 79-90, Springer.
    4. Harris, Richard D.F. & Shen, Jian & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2022. "Maximally predictable currency portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Dellas, Harris & Bang Yoo, Chin, 1991. "Reserve currency preferences of central banks: the case of Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 406-419, September.
    6. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Higher Moments," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(1), pages 29-55, January.
    7. Emmanuel Farhi & Matteo Maggiori, 2018. "A Model of the International Monetary System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 295-355.
    8. Edwin M. Truman & Anna Wong, 2006. "The Case for an International Reserve Diversification Standard," Working Paper Series WP06-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2017. "Balance sheet effects on monetary and financial spillovers: The East Asian crisis plus 20," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 258-282.
    10. Samer Shousha, 2017. "International Reserves, Credit Constraints, and Systemic Sudden Stops," International Finance Discussion Papers 1205, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1971-1985, November.
    12. Hamilton, J.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201, Elsevier.
    13. Miss Yinqiu Lu & Yilin Wang, 2019. "Determinants of Currency Composition of Reserves: a Portfolio Theory Approach with an Application to RMB," IMF Working Papers 2019/052, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Luigi Bocola & Guido Lorenzoni, 2020. "Financial Crises, Dollarization, and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2524-2557, August.
    15. Barkbu, Bergljot & Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 2012. "Financial crises and the multilateral response: What the historical record shows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 422-435.
    16. Ito, Hiroyuki & McCauley, Robert N. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Currency composition of reserves, trade invoicing and currency movements," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 16-29.
    17. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2012. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 889-946.
    18. Srichander Ramaswamy, 1999. "Reserve currency allocation: an alternative methodology," BIS Working Papers 72, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Barry Eichengreen & Arnaud Mehl & Livia Chiţu & Thorsten Beck, 2019. "Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 315-363.
    20. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2023. "Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-42, February.
    21. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2020. "Currency composition of foreign exchange reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    22. Tsiang, S C, 1972. "The Rationale of the Mean-Standard Deviation Analysis, Skewness Preference, and the Demand for Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 354-371, June.
    23. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2018. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 588-634.
    24. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Qian, XingWang, 2020. "The currency composition of international reserves, demand for international reserves, and global safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    25. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2012. "Foreign reserve management during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2017-2037.
    26. Mr. Matthew T Jones, 2005. "Estimating Markov Transition Matrices Using Proportions Data: An Application to Credit Risk," IMF Working Papers 2005/219, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Simkowitz, Michael A. & Beedles, William L., 1978. "Diversification in a Three-Moment World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 927-941, December.
    28. Mariko Hatase & Mari Ohnuki, 2009. "Did the Structure of Trade and Foreign Debt Affect Reserve Currency Composition? Evidence form Interwar Japan," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    29. Makin, John H, 1971. "The Composition of International Reserve Holdings: A Problem of Choice Involving Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(5), pages 818-832, December.
    30. Campbell Harvey & John Liechty & Merrill Liechty & Peter Muller, 2010. "Portfolio selection with higher moments," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 469-485.
    31. Lu, Dong & Mu, Yuhao, 2023. "A parsimonious model of trade, finance and endogenous currency choices in international reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    32. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
    33. Boubaker, Heni & Sghaier, Nadia, 2013. "Portfolio optimization in the presence of dependent financial returns with long memory: A copula based approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 361-377.
    34. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Barry J. Eichengreen & Chima Simpson-Bell, 2022. "The Stealth Erosion of Dollar Dominance: Active Diversifiers and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies," IMF Working Papers 2022/058, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    36. Gete, Pedro & Melkadze, Givi, 2020. "A quantitative model of international lending of last resort," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    37. Hatase, Mariko & Ohnuki, Mari, 2009. "Did the structure of trade and foreign debt affect reserve currency composition? Evidence from interwar Japan," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 319-347, December.
    38. Conine, Thomas E, Jr & Tamarkin, Maurry, J, 1981. "On Diversification Given Asymmetry in Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1143-1155, December.
    39. Menzie D. Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency," NBER Working Papers 13909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Peter Stella, 2020. "How Countries Manage Large Central Bank Balance Sheets," Springer Books, in: Jacob Bjorheim (ed.), Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 55-78, Springer.
    41. Ali Ezzati, 1974. "Forecasting Market Shares of Alternative Home-Heating Units by Markov Process using Transition Probabilities Estimated from Aggregate Time Series Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 462-473, December.
    42. Varian, Hal R, 1988. "Estimating Risk Aversion from Arrow-Debreu Portfolio Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 973-979, July.
    43. Fang, Yi & Post, Thierry, 2022. "Optimal portfolio choice for higher-order risk averters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    44. Alper Gormus, N., 2016. "Do different time-horizons in volatility have any significance for the emerging markets?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 29-32.
    45. Donald Meyer & Jack Meyer, 2005. "Relative Risk Aversion: What Do We Know?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 243-262, December.
    46. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2014. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 299-332, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mateane, Lebogang, 2020. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," EconStor Preprints 227484, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Lu, Dong & Mu, Yuhao, 2023. "A parsimonious model of trade, finance and endogenous currency choices in international reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    3. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2022. "Do central banks rebalance their currency shares?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Sévi, Benoît, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the downside risk-return trade-off at daily frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 189-197.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Qian, XingWang, 2020. "The currency composition of international reserves, demand for international reserves, and global safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Laser, Falk Hendrik & Weidner, Jan, 2020. "Currency compositions of international reserves and the euro crisis," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 238, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    7. Eichengreen, Barry & Macaire, Camille & Mehl, Arnaud & Monnet, Eric & Naef, Alain, 2022. "Is Capital Account Convertibility Required for the Renminbi to Acquire Reserve Currency Status?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    9. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2020. "Currency composition of foreign exchange reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Zhichao Zhang & Li Ding & Fan Zhang & Zhuang Zhang, 2015. "Optimal Currency Composition for China's Foreign Reserves: A Copula Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(12), pages 1947-1965, December.
    11. Alina Iancu & Gareth Anderson & Sakai Ando & Ethan Boswell & Andrea Gamba & Shushanik Hakobyan & Lusine Lusinyan & Neil Meads & Yiqun Wu, 2022. "Reserve Currencies in an Evolving International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 879-915, November.
    12. Alan de Bromhead & David Jordan & Francis Kennedy & Jack Seddon, 2023. "Sterling's farewell symphony: The end of the Sterling Area revisited," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(2), pages 415-444, May.
    13. Arslanalp, Serkan & Eichengreen, Barry & Simpson-Bell, Chima, 2022. "The stealth erosion of dollar dominance and the rise of nontraditional reserve currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Chan, Raymond H. & Chow, Sheung-Chi & Guo, Xu & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2022. "Central moments, stochastic dominance, moment rule, and diversification with an application," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Dahlquist, Magnus & Tédongap, Roméo & Farago, Adam, 2015. "Asymmetries and Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 10706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Monica Billio & Bertrand Maillet & Loriana Pelizzon, 2022. "A meta-measure of performance related to both investors and investments characteristics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1405-1447, June.
    17. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "The international role of the euro: a status report," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 317, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Adcock, C.J., 2014. "Mean–variance–skewness efficient surfaces, Stein’s lemma and the multivariate extended skew-Student distribution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 392-401.
    19. Lassance, Nathan & Vrins, Frédéric, 2021. "Portfolio selection with parsimonious higher comoments estimation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    20. Jondeau, Eric & Zhang, Qunzi & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2019. "Average skewness matters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 29-47.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected utility; Portfolio selection with skewness; EMEs currency composition of FX reserves; Foreign debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:402-418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622941 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.