[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/poleco/v31y2013icp119-138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • Beetsma, Roel
  • Giuliodori, Massimo
  • Walschot, Mark
  • Wierts, Peter
Abstract
Using real-time data from the annual budgets over the period 1958–2009, we explore budgetary planning and implementation in the Netherlands. Three fiscal policy regimes are distinguished. Our key findings are the following. First, plans are on average unbiased, although they are overoptimistic during earlier parts of our sample and overly pessimistic during the later parts of our sample, when revenues are under-projected. Second, general economic conditions and the state of the public finances are important determinants of both plans and their implementation. Third, this is also the case for political and institutional factors. Expenditure overruns are partly related to political factors, whereas cautious revenue forecasts relate to the institutional setting. Fourth, under the most recent regime of “trend-based budgeting” implementation was strongest relative to planning. In fact, this regime may contain some elements that are useful for designing national fiscal arrangements elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Walschot, Mark & Wierts, Peter, 2013. "Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:119-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2013.04.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S017626801300027X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2013.04.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
    2. Pina, Álvaro M. & Venes, Nuno M., 2011. "The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 534-546, September.
    3. Wehner, Joachim, 2010. "Institutional constraints on profligate politicians: the conditional effect of partisan fragmentation on budget deficits," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28649, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    5. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts [‘Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 492-534.
    6. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2006. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 3-15, February.
    8. Hallerberg,Mark & Rainer Strauch,Rolf & von Hagen,Jürgen, 2010. "Fiscal Governance in Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521138260, September.
    9. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    10. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in Real Time," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 440-465, June.
    11. Álvaro M. Pina, 2009. "Elusive Counter-Cyclicality and Deliberate Opportunism? Fiscal Policy from Plans to Final Outcomes," Working Papers w200906, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Francisco Castro & Javier J. P√Ârez & Marta Rodr√Çguez-Vives, 2013. "Fiscal Data Revisions in Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1187-1209, September.
    13. Charles Wyplosz, 2006. "European Monetary Union: the dark sides of a major success [‘The macroeconomics of low inflation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 208-261.
    14. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
    15. John Lewis, 2013. "Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3347-3359, August.
    16. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2009. "Planning to cheat: EU fiscal policy in real time [‘What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 753-804.
    17. Roel Beetsma & Benjamin Bluhm & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2013. "From Budgetary Forecasts To Ex Post Fiscal Data: Exploring The Evolution Of Fiscal Forecast Errors In The European Union," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 795-813, October.
    18. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    19. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    20. Torsten Persson & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1989. "Why a Stubborn Conservative would Run a Deficit: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 325-345.
    21. Mr. Xavier Debrun & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "The Discipline-Enhancing Role of Fiscal Institutions: Theory and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2007/171, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "Fiscal adjustment to cyclical developments in the OECD: an empirical analysis based on real-time data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 419-441, July.
    23. Jürgen Hagen, 2010. "Sticking to fiscal plans: the role of institutions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 487-503, September.
    24. Forni, Lorenzo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," MPRA Paper 4315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Carlos Marinheiro, 2008. "The stability and growth pact, fiscal policy institutions and stabilization in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 189-207, July.
    26. John Lewis, 2013. "Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3347-3359, August.
    27. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2008. "The cyclical response of fiscal policies in the euro area. Why do results of empirical research differ so strongly?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 654, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    28. Frits Bos, 2007. "The Dutch fiscal framework; history, current practice and the role of the CPB," CPB Document 150, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    29. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe [‘Consumption smoothing through fiscal policy in OECD and EU countries’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chatagny, Florian, 2015. "Incentive effects of fiscal rules on the finance minister's behavior: Evidence from revenue projections in Swiss Cantons," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 184-200.
    2. Roel Beetsma & Raymond Gradus, 2012. "A Discussion of the Changes to Europe's Macro-fiscal Framework in Response to the Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(01), pages 17-23, April.
    3. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
    5. Julia Estefania‐Flores & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2023. "Worse than you think: Public debt forecast errors in advanced and developing economies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 685-714, April.
    6. Panagiotis Liargovas & Vasilis Pilichos, 2022. "Is EU Fiscal Governance Effective? A Case Study for the Period 1999–2019," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Fiscal planning and implementation: euro area analysis based on real time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 34/2012, Bank of Finland.
    10. Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2011. "Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data," IMF Working Papers 2011/048, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ademmer Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe Jens, 2022. "The Impact of Forecast Errors on Fiscal Planning and Debt Accumulation," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 242(2), pages 171-190, April.
    12. Jante Parlevliet & Massimo Giuliodori & Matthijs Rooduijn, 2021. "Populist attitudes, fiscal illusion and fiscal preferences: evidence from Dutch households," Working Papers 731, DNB.
    13. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Wierts, Peter & Bluhm, Benjamin, 2011. "From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 8413, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Fiscal planning and implementation : euro area analysis based on real time data," Research Discussion Papers 34/2012, Bank of Finland.
    15. Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "Real time uncertainty in fiscal planning and debt accumulation in the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 43-59, January.
    16. Heshmati, Almas & Kim, Jungsuk, 2014. "A Survey of the Role of Fiscal Policy in Addressing Income Inequality, Poverty Reduction and Inclusive Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 8119, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_034 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Roel Beetsma & Raymond Gradus, 2012. "A Discussion of the Changes to Europe's Macro-fiscal Framework in Response to the Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(1), pages 17-23, April.
    21. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?," NBER Working Papers 22349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Mancini, Anna Laura & Tommasino, Pietro, 2023. "Fiscal rules and the reliability of public investment plans: Evidence from local governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    23. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Paper Series 11-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    2. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Wierts, Peter & Bluhm, Benjamin, 2011. "From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 8413, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Wierts, Peter, 2009. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy in the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 7285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "Fiscal adjustment to cyclical developments in the OECD: an empirical analysis based on real-time data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 419-441, July.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    9. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2020. "Asymmetric Macroeconomic Stabilization And Fiscal Consolidation In The Oecd And The Euro Area," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403071, HAL.
    10. Joseph David Barroso Vasconcelos de Deus & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2015. "Empirical evidence on fiscal forecasting in Eurozone countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(5), pages 838-860, October.
    11. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in Real Time," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 440-465, June.
    12. Cronin, David & McInerney, Niall, 2023. "Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the European Semester and Fiscal Compact – An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Roel Beetsma & Benjamin Bluhm & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2013. "From Budgetary Forecasts To Ex Post Fiscal Data: Exploring The Evolution Of Fiscal Forecast Errors In The European Union," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 795-813, October.
    14. Luca Agnello & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence Based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 43-85, June.
    15. Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2011. "Joint Estimates of Automatic and Discretionary Fiscal Policy: the OECD 1981-2003," Working Papers 2011-14, CEPII research center.
    16. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Bernoth, Kerstin & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Patrícia Martins & Leonida Correia, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts and Slippages: The Role of the SGP and Domestic Fiscal Frameworks," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 226-253, June.
    19. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2009. "The Cyclical Reaction of Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area: The Role of Modelling Choices and Data Vintages," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 39-72, March.
    20. Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2011. "Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD," Working Papers 1122, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal plans; Implementation; Economic; political and institutional factors; Trend-based budgeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:119-138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.