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The quotient of normal random variables and application to asset price fat tails

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  • Caginalp, Carey
  • Caginalp, Gunduz
Abstract
The quotient of random variables with normal distributions is examined and proven to have power law decay, with density fx≃f0x−2, with the coefficient depending on the means and variances of the numerator and denominator and their correlation. We also obtain the conditional probability densities for each of the four quadrants given by the signs of the numerator and denominator for arbitrary correlation ρ∈[−1,1). For ρ=−1 we obtain a particularly simple closed form solution for all x∈R. The results are applied to a basic issue in economics and finance, namely the density of relative price changes. Classical finance stipulates a normal distribution of relative price changes, though empirical studies suggest a power law at the tail end. By considering the supply and demand in a basic price change model, we prove that the relative price change has density that decays with an x−2 power law. Various parameter limits are established.

Suggested Citation

  • Caginalp, Carey & Caginalp, Gunduz, 2018. "The quotient of normal random variables and application to asset price fat tails," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 499(C), pages 457-471.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:499:y:2018:i:c:p:457-471
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.077
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    Cited by:

    1. Carey Caginalp & Gunduz Caginalp, 2018. "Asset Price Volatility and Price Extrema," Papers 1802.04774, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    2. Caginalp, Carey & Caginalp, Gunduz, 2019. "Price equations with symmetric supply/demand; implications for fat tails," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 79-82.
    3. Caginalp, Carey & Caginalp, Gunduz, 2020. "Derivation of non-classical stochastic price dynamics equations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    4. Carey Caginalp & Gunduz Caginalp, 2019. "Derivation of non-classical stochastic price dynamics equations," Papers 1908.01103, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    5. Caginalp, Carey & Caginalp, Gunduz, 2019. "Stochastic asset price dynamics and volatility using a symmetric supply and demand price equation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 807-824.
    6. Cerqueti, Roy & Giacalone, Massimiliano & Panarello, Demetrio, 2019. "A Generalized Error Distribution Copula-based method for portfolios risk assessment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 687-695.
    7. Gunduz Caginalp, 2020. "Fat tails arise endogenously in asset prices from supply/demand, with or without jump processes," Papers 2011.08275, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.

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