[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v434y2015icp84-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating serial correlation and self-similarity in financial time series—A diversification approach with applications to high frequency data

Author

Listed:
  • Gerlich, Nikolas
  • Rostek, Stefan
Abstract
We derive a heuristic method to estimate the degree of self-similarity and serial correlation in financial time series. Especially, we propagate the use of a tailor-made selection of different estimation techniques that are used in various fields of time series analysis but until now have not consequently found their way into the finance literature. Following the idea of portfolio diversification, we show that considerable improvements with respect to robustness and unbiasedness can be achieved by using a basket of estimation methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlich, Nikolas & Rostek, Stefan, 2015. "Estimating serial correlation and self-similarity in financial time series—A diversification approach with applications to high frequency data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 434(C), pages 84-98.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:434:y:2015:i:c:p:84-98
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.03.085
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437115003477
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2015.03.085?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Bianchi & A. Pantanella & A. Pianese, 2013. "Modeling stock prices by multifractional Brownian motion: an improved estimation of the pointwise regularity," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 1317-1330, July.
    2. Erzgräber, Hartmut & Strozzi, Fernanda & Zaldívar, José-Manuel & Touchette, Hugo & Gutiérrez, Eugénio & Arrowsmith, David K., 2008. "Time series analysis and long range correlations of Nordic spot electricity market data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(26), pages 6567-6574.
    3. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    4. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2007. "Long-range dependence and multifractality in the term structure of LIBOR interest rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 373(C), pages 603-614.
    7. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
    8. Serinaldi, Francesco, 2010. "Use and misuse of some Hurst parameter estimators applied to stationary and non-stationary financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2770-2781.
    9. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1996. "Long-term dependence in stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 253-259, December.
    10. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    11. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
    13. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    14. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2005. "The long-range dependence behavior of the term structure of interest rates in Japan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 350(2), pages 418-426.
    15. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    16. Jacobsen, Ben, 1996. "Long term dependence in stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 393-417, December.
    17. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. "Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December.
    18. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    19. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
    20. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    21. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    22. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    23. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    24. Bernard, Vl & Thomas, Jk, 1989. "Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift - Delayed Price Response Or Risk Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 1-36.
    25. Cajueiro, Daniel O & Tabak, Benjamin M, 2004. "The Hurst exponent over time: testing the assertion that emerging markets are becoming more efficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(3), pages 521-537.
    26. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Fernandez-Anaya, Guillermo, 2008. "Time-varying Hurst exponent for US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(24), pages 6159-6169.
    27. Mariani, M.C. & Florescu, I. & Beccar Varela, M.P. & Ncheuguim, E., 2009. "Long correlations and Levy models applied to the study of memory effects in high frequency (tick) data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1659-1664.
    28. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. "The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    29. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
    30. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Kaen, Fred R. & Koveos, Peter E., 1982. "R/S analysis of foreign exchange rates under two international monetary regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 407-415.
    31. Kian‐Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2011. "The Evolution Of Stock Market Efficiency Over Time: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 69-108, February.
    32. Kumar, Sunil & Deo, Nivedita, 2009. "Multifractal properties of the Indian financial market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1593-1602.
    33. Zarowin, Paul, 1990. "Size, Seasonality, and Stock Market Overreaction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 113-125, March.
    34. Kantelhardt, Jan W & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Rego, Henio H.A & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin, 2001. "Detecting long-range correlations with detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 441-454.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Chunhao & Cheng, Xuwen & Xiao, Weilin & Wu, Xiang, 2019. "Parameter identification for mixed fractional Brownian motions with the drift parameter," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    2. Zhang, Xili & Xiao, Weilin, 2017. "Arbitrage with fractional Gaussian processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 620-628.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    2. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    3. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    4. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    5. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    6. Balvers, Ronald J. & Wu, Yangru, 2006. "Momentum and mean reversion across national equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 24-48, January.
    7. Minye Zhang & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Is the Mean Return of Hotel Real Estate Stocks Apt to Overreact to Past Performance?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 497-543, May.
    8. Goddard, John & Onali, Enrico, 2012. "Self-affinity in financial asset returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-11.
    9. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    10. Hon, Mark T. & Tonks, Ian, 2003. "Momentum in the UK stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 43-70, February.
    11. Suijs, J.P.M., 2002. "Post Earnings Announcement Drift : More Risk than Investors can Bear," Discussion Paper 2002-45, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Cohen, Randolph B. & Gompers, Paul A. & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2002. "Who underreacts to cash-flow news? evidence from trading between individuals and institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 409-462.
    13. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    14. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Masih, A. Mansur. M., 2015. "Developing trading strategies based on fractal finance: An application of MF-DFA in the context of Islamic equities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 223-235.
    15. Jacobsen, Ben, 1996. "Long term dependence in stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 393-417, December.
    16. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2009. "Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 154-163, September.
    17. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    18. A. Sensoy & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2013. "How much random does European Union walk? A time-varying long memory analysis," Working Papers Series 342, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Doron Avramov & Guy Kaplanski & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2022. "Postfundamentals Price Drift in Capital Markets: A Regression Regularization Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7658-7681, October.
    20. Albuquerque, Rui & Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Advance information and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 236-275.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:434:y:2015:i:c:p:84-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.