[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v417y2015icp245-260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relation between global migration and trade networks

Author

Listed:
  • Sgrignoli, Paolo
  • Metulini, Rodolfo
  • Schiavo, Stefano
  • Riccaboni, Massimo
Abstract
In this paper we develop a methodology to analyze and compare multiple global networks, focusing our analysis on the relation between human migration and trade. First, we identify the subset of products for which the presence of a community of migrants significantly increases trade intensity, where to assure comparability across networks we apply a hypergeometric filter that lets us identify those links which intensity is significantly higher than expected. Next, proposing a new way to define country neighbors based on the most intense links in the trade network, we use spatial econometrics techniques to measure the effect of migration on international trade, while controlling for network interdependences. Overall, we find that migration significantly boosts trade across countries and we are able to identify product categories for which this effect is particularly strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Sgrignoli, Paolo & Metulini, Rodolfo & Schiavo, Stefano & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2015. "The relation between global migration and trade networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 245-260.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:417:y:2015:i:c:p:245-260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.09.037
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037843711400795X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2014.09.037?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Murat Genc & Masood Gheasi & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2012. "The impact of immigration on international trade: a meta-analysis," Chapters, in: Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot & Mediha Sahin (ed.), Migration Impact Assessment, chapter 9, pages 301-337, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Fagiolo, Giorgio & Reyes, Javier & Schiavo, Stefano, 2008. "On the topological properties of the world trade web: A weighted network analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3868-3873.
    3. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    4. Nathan Nunn, 2007. "Relationship-Specificity, Incomplete Contracts, and the Pattern of Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 569-600.
    5. Anthony Briant & Pierre-Philippe Combes & Miren Lafourcade, 2014. "Product Complexity, Quality of Institutions and the Protrade Effect of Immigrants," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 63-85, January.
    6. Massimo Riccaboni & Alessandro Rossi & Stefano Schiavo, 2013. "Global networks of trade and bits," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 33-56, April.
    7. Kristian Behrens & Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2012. "‘Dual’ Gravity: Using Spatial Econometrics To Control For Multilateral Resistance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 773-794, August.
    8. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Steven Farber & Antonio Páez & Erik Volz, 2010. "Topology, Dependency Tests and Estimation Bias in Network Autoregressive Models," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Antonio Páez & Julie Gallo & Ron N. Buliung & Sandy Dall'erba (ed.), Progress in Spatial Analysis, pages 29-57, Springer.
    10. Sgrignoli, Paolo & Metulini, Rodolfo & Schiavo, Stefano & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2015. "The relation between global migration and trade networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 245-260.
    11. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00942726 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    14. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Grossmann, Volker & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2012. "Migration, International Trade and Capital Formation: Cause or Effect?," IZA Discussion Papers 6975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2007. "Estimating models of complex FDI: Are there third-country effects?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 260-281, September.
    16. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
    17. James P. LeSage & Manfred M. Fischer & Thomas Scherngell, 2007. "Knowledge spillovers across Europe: Evidence from a Poisson spatial interaction model with spatial effects," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(3), pages 393-421, August.
    18. Kelejian, Harry & Tavlas, George S. & Petroulas, Pavlos, 2012. "In the neighborhood: The trade effects of the Euro in a spatial framework," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 314-322.
    19. A. Porojan, 2001. "Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 265-280, July.
    20. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Stephen G. Hall & Pavlos Petroulas, 2008. "Spatial Interdependencies of FDI Locations: A Lessening of the Tyranny of Distance?," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/28, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    22. Pace, R. Kelley & LeSage, James P., 2004. "Chebyshev approximation of log-determinants of spatial weight matrices," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 179-196, March.
    23. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    24. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    25. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Elhorst, J. Paul & Lacombe, Donald J. & Piras, Gianfranco, 2012. "On model specification and parameter space definitions in higher order spatial econometric models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 211-220.
    27. Case, Anne C. & Rosen, Harvey S. & Hines, James Jr., 1993. "Budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence : Evidence from the states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 285-307, October.
    28. LeSage, James P. & Pace, Robert Kelley, 2011. "Pitfalls in Higher Order Model Extensions of Basic Spatial Regression Methodology," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 41(1), pages 13-26, Summer.
    29. Ming-Long Lee & R. Kelley Pace, 2005. "Spatial Distribution of Retail Sales," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 53-69, August.
    30. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
    31. Filippo Simini & Marta C. González & Amos Maritan & Albert-László Barabási, 2012. "A universal model for mobility and migration patterns," Nature, Nature, vol. 484(7392), pages 96-100, April.
    32. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-533, May.
    33. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    34. Giovanni Peri & Francisco Requena‐Silvente, 2010. "The trade creation effect of immigrants: evidence from the remarkable case of Spain," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1433-1459, November.
    35. Michele Tumminello & Salvatore Miccichè & Fabrizio Lillo & Jyrki Piilo & Rosario N Mantegna, 2011. "Statistically Validated Networks in Bipartite Complex Systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-11, March.
    36. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2008. "Spatial Econometric Modeling Of Origin‐Destination Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 941-967, December.
    37. Sergey V. Buldyrev & Roni Parshani & Gerald Paul & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2010. "Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7291), pages 1025-1028, April.
    38. Smirnov, Oleg & Anselin, Luc, 2001. "Fast maximum likelihood estimation of very large spatial autoregressive models: a characteristic polynomial approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 301-319, January.
    39. Gould, David M, 1994. "Immigrant Links to the Home Country: Empirical Implications for U.S. Bilateral Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 302-316, May.
    40. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Keith Head & John Ries, 1998. "Immigration and Trade Creation: Econometric Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 47-62, February.
    42. Chan‐Hyun Sohn, 2005. "Does The Gravity Model Explain South Korea'S Trade Flows?," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 417-430, December.
    43. Egger, Peter, 2000. "A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
    44. K. Bhattacharya & G. Mukherjee & J. Saramaki & K. Kaski & S. S. Manna, 2007. "The International Trade Network: weighted network analysis and modelling," Papers 0707.4343, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2008.
    45. Kusum Mundra, 2005. "Immigration and International Trade: A Semiparametric Empirical Investigation," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 65-91.
    46. Giorgio Fagiolo & Marina Mastrorillo, 2014. "Does Human Migration Affect International Trade? A Complex-Network Perspective," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-20, May.
    47. James E. Rauch & Vitor Trindade, 2002. "Ethnic Chinese Networks In International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 116-130, February.
    48. Lung-fei Lee & Xiaodong Liu & Xu Lin, 2010. "Specification and estimation of social interaction models with network structures," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(2), pages 145-176, July.
    49. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo Metulini & Giorgio Gnecco & Francesco Biancalani & Massimo Riccaboni, 2023. "Hierarchical clustering and matrix completion for the reconstruction of world input–output tables," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(3), pages 575-620, September.
    2. Albert Millogo & Ines Trojette, 2020. "Pro-trade effects of MENA immigrants in France: does governance matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 3219-3230.
    3. Wang, Chao & Zhang, Xinyi & Ghadimi, Pezhman & Liu, Qian & Lim, Ming K. & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "The impact of regional financial development on economic growth in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region: A spatial econometric analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 635-648.
    4. Sgrignoli, Paolo & Metulini, Rodolfo & Schiavo, Stefano & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2015. "The relation between global migration and trade networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 245-260.
    5. Rodolfo Metulini & Massimo Riccaboni & Paolo Sgrignoli & Zhen Zhu, 2017. "The Indirect Effects of FDI on Trade: A Network Perspective," Working Papers 04/2017, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Mar 2017.
    6. Lillo, Felipe & García, Leidy & Santander, Valentín, 2017. "Dynamics of global remittances: A graph-based analysis," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 64-71.
    7. Rodolfo Metulini & Paolo Sgrignoli & Stefano Schiavo & Massimo Riccaboni, 2018. "The network of migrants and international trade," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(3), pages 763-787, December.
    8. Rodolfo Metulini & Stefania Tamea & Francesco Laio & Massimo Riccaboni, 2016. "The Water Suitcase of Migrants: Assessing Virtual Water Fluxes Associated to Human Migration," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, April.
    9. Lanz, Rainer & Lee, Woori & Stolzenburg, Victor, 2019. "Distance, formal and informal institutions in international trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2019-03, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    10. Filippo Santi & Giorgia Giovannetti & Margherita Velucchi, 2021. "Migrants know better: Migrants' networks and FDI," Working Papers - Economics wp2021_17.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    11. Wang, Chao & Zhang, Xinyi & Vilela, André L.M. & Liu, Chao & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Industrial structure upgrading and the impact of the capital market from 1998 to 2015: A spatial econometric analysis in Chinese regions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 189-201.
    12. Gao, Cuixia & Tao, Simin & He, Yuyang & Su, Bin & Sun, Mei & Mensah, Isaac Adjei, 2021. "Effect of population migration on spatial carbon emission transfers in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    13. Antonios Garas & Athanasios Lapatinas & Konstantinos Poulios, 2016. "The Relation Between Migration And Fdi In The Oecd From A Complex Network Perspective," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(06n07), pages 1-20, September.
    14. Shamnaaz Sufrauj & Stefano Schiavo & Massimo Riccaboni, 2015. "Big hits, export concentration and volatility," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(2), pages 135-166, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodolfo Metulini & Paolo Sgrignoli & Stefano Schiavo & Massimo Riccaboni, 2018. "The network of migrants and international trade," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(3), pages 763-787, December.
    2. Rodolfo Metulini & Paolo Sgrignoli & Stefano Schiavo & Massimo Riccaboni, 2014. "The migration network effect on international trade," Working Papers 5/2014, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised May 2014.
    3. Christopher R. Parsons & L. Alan Winters, 2014. "International migration, trade and aid: a survey," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 4, pages 65-112, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Robert E.B. Lucas, 2014. "The migration–trade link in developing economies: a summary and extension of evidence," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 11, pages 288-326, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Grossmann, Volker & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2012. "Migration, International Trade and Capital Formation: Cause or Effect?," IZA Discussion Papers 6975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Massimiliano Bratti & Luca Benedictis & Gianluca Santoni, 2014. "On the pro-trade effects of immigrants," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 557-594, August.
    7. D'Ambrosio, Anna & Montresor, Sandro, 2017. "Migration and Trade Ows: New Evidence from Spanish Regions," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201724, University of Turin.
    8. Egger, Peter H. & Ehrlich, Maximilian v. & Nelson, Douglas R., 2020. "The trade effects of skilled versus unskilled migration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 448-464.
    9. Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Peri, Giovanni & Wright, Greg C., 2018. "Immigration, trade and productivity in services: Evidence from U.K. firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 88-108.
    10. Christopher Parsons, 2011. "Do Migrants Really Foster Trade? The Trade-Migration Nexus, a Panel Approach 1960-2000," Discussion Papers 11/10, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:48:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Samuel Admassu, 2019. "A comparative analysis of African and Asian migrants’ effect on trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 2079-2092, June.
    13. Albert Millogo & Ines Trojette, 2020. "Pro-trade effects of MENA immigrants in France: does governance matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 3219-3230.
    14. Rodolfo Metulini & Massimo Riccaboni & Paolo Sgrignoli & Zhen Zhu, 2017. "The Indirect Effects of FDI on Trade: A Network Perspective," Working Papers 04/2017, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Mar 2017.
    15. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. David Law & Murat Genç & John Bryant, 2013. "Trade, Diaspora and Migration to New Zealand," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 582-606, May.
    17. Giulia Bettin & Alessia Lo Turco, 2012. "A Cross-Country View on South-North Migration and Trade: Dissecting the Channels," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 4-29, July.
    18. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    20. Spring, Eva & Grossmann, Volker, 2013. "Does Bilateral Trust Affect International Movement of Goods and Labor?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79956, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Giorgia Giovannetti & Mauro Lonati, 2014. "The impact of product quality on the pro-trade elasticity of immigrants," Working Papers - Economics wp2014_11.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Migration; Networks; Gravity model; Spatial econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:417:y:2015:i:c:p:245-260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.