[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v128y2015icp124-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Benefit incidence with incentive effects, measurement errors and latent heterogeneity: A case study for China

Author

Listed:
  • Ravallion, Martin
  • Chen, Shaohua
Abstract
In what is probably the largest cash transfer program in the world today China's Dibao program aims to fill all poverty gaps. In theory, the program creates a poverty trap, with 100% benefit withdrawal rate (BWR). But is that what we see in practice? The paper proposes an econometric method of estimating the mean BWR allowing for incentive effects, measurement errors and correlated latent heterogeneity. Under the method's identifying assumptions, a feasible instrumental variables estimator corrects for incentive effects and measurement errors, and provides a bound for the true value when there is correlated incidence heterogeneity. The results suggest that past methods of assessing benefit incidence using either nominal official rates or raw tabulations from survey data are deceptive. The actual BWR appears to be much lower than the formal rate and is likely to be too low in the light of the literature on optimal income taxation. The paper discusses likely reasons based on qualitative observations from field work. The program's local implementation appears to matter far more than incentives implied by its formal rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2015. "Benefit incidence with incentive effects, measurement errors and latent heterogeneity: A case study for China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 124-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:128:y:2015:i:c:p:124-132
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.04.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272715000705
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.04.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
    2. Holt, Stephen D. & Romich, Jennifer L., 2007. "Marginal Tax Rates Facing Low– and Moderate–Income Workers Who Participate in Means–Tested Transfer Programs," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 60(2), pages 253-276, June.
    3. Emmanuel Skoufias & Vincenzo Di Maro, 2008. "Conditional Cash Transfers, Adult Work Incentives, and Poverty," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 935-960.
    4. Deaton, Angus, 1995. "Data and econometric tools for development analysis," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1785-1882, Elsevier.
    5. Anonymous, 2014. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-2, May.
    6. Goñi, Edwin & Humberto López, J. & Servén, Luis, 2011. "Fiscal Redistribution and Income Inequality in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1558-1569, September.
    7. Ravi Kanbur & Matti Tuomala, 2011. "Charitable conservatism, poverty radicalism and inequality aversion," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(3), pages 417-431, September.
    8. Elliott Fan, 2010. "Who Benefits from Public Old Age Pensions? Evidence from a Targeted Program," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 297-322, January.
    9. Emmanuel Saez, 2002. "Optimal Income Transfer Programs: Intensive versus Extensive Labor Supply Responses," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 1039-1073.
    10. Ricardo, David, 1821. "On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, edition 3, number ricardo1821.
    11. James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward Vytlacil, 2006. "Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 389-432, August.
    12. Meiyan Wang, 2007. "Emerging Urban Poverty and Effects of the Dibao Program on Alleviating Poverty in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(2), pages 74-88, March.
    13. Appleton, Simon & Knight, John & Song, Lina & Xia, Qingjie, 2002. "Labor retrenchment in China: Determinants and consequences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 252-275.
    14. Jiwei Lou & Shuilin Wang, 2008. "Public Finance in China : Reform and Growth for a Harmonious Society," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6360.
    15. Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "Miss-targeted or miss-measured?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 9-12, July.
    16. Meade, James E, 1972. "Poverty in the Welfare State," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 289-326, November.
    17. Nora Lustig & Carola Pessino & John Scott, 2014. "The Impact of Taxes and Social Spending on Inequality and Poverty in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay: Introduction to the Special Issue," Public Finance Review, , vol. 42(3), pages 287-303, May.
    18. Krueger, Alan B. & Meyer, Bruce D., 2002. "Labor supply effects of social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 33, pages 2327-2392, Elsevier.
    19. Francesco Silva, 2003. "Introduzione: il primo workshop di Siepi," ECONOMIA E POLITICA INDUSTRIALE, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2003(117).
    20. Lemieux, Thomas & Milligan, Kevin, 2008. "Incentive effects of social assistance: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 807-828, February.
    21. Yonatan Ben-Shalom & Robert A. Moffitt & John Karl Scholz, "undated". "An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Anti-Poverty Programs in the United States," Mathematica Policy Research Reports cfc848ed6ab647bcb38ab47bb, Mathematica Policy Research.
    22. Laurence S. Moss, 2003. "Editor's Introduction," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 315-318, April.
    23. Kanbur, Ravi & Keen, Michael & Tuomala, Matti, 1994. "Labor Supply and Targeting in Poverty Alleviation Programs," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 8(2), pages 191-211, May.
    24. Nora Lustig & Florencia Amábile & Marisa Bucheli & George Gray Molina & Sean Higgins & Miguel Jaramillo & Wilson Jiménez Pozo & Veronica Paz Arauco & Claudiney Pereira & Carola Pessino & Máximo Rossi , 2013. "The impact of taxes and social spending on inequality and poverty in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay: An overview," Working Papers 315, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    25. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin & Wang, Youjuan, 2006. "Di Bao : a guaranteed minimum income in urban China?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3805, The World Bank.
    26. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
    27. Francois Bourguignon & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15090.
    28. Bingley, Paul & Walker, Ian, 1997. "The Labour Supply, Unemployment and Participation of Lone Mothers in In-Work Transfer Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1375-1390, September.
    29. Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique & Gautam, Madhur, 1995. "Testing a social safety net," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 175-199, June.
    30. Qin Gao & Irwin Garfinkel & Fuhua Zhai, 2009. "Anti‐Poverty Effectiveness Of The Minimum Living Standard Assistance Policy In Urban China," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(s1), pages 630-655, July.
    31. Malthus, Thomas Robert, 1798. "An Essay on the Principle of Population," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number malthus1798.
    32. Martin Ravallion, 0. "Decentralizing Eligibility for a Federal Antipoverty Program: A Case Study for China," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 23(1), pages 1-30.
    33. Margaret Grosh & Carlo del Ninno & Emil Tesliuc & Azedine Ouerghi, 2008. "For Protection and Promotion : The Design and Implementation of Effective Safety Nets," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6582.
    34. Maag, Elaine & Steuerle, C. Eugene & Chakravarti, Ritadhi & Quakenbush, Caleb, 2012. "How Marginal Tax Rates Affect Families at Various Levels of Poverty," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 65(4), pages 759-782, December.
    35. Peter M. Solar, 1995. "Poor relief and English economic development before the industrial revolution," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-22, February.
    36. Anonymous, 2014. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 109-110, August.
    37. J. A. Mirrlees, 1971. "An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 38(2), pages 175-208.
    38. Moffitt, Robert A., 2002. "Welfare programs and labor supply," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 34, pages 2393-2430, Elsevier.
    39. van de Walle, Dominique, 1998. "Assessing the welfare impacts of public spending," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 365-379, March.
    40. repec:bla:ajecsc:v:62:y:2003:i:4:p:645-648 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. FranÁois Bourguignon & Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Phillippe G. Leite, 2003. "Conditional Cash Transfers, Schooling, and Child Labor: Micro-Simulating Brazil's Bolsa Escola Program," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 229-254, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ben Westmore, 2017. "Sharing the Benefits of China’s Growth by Providing Opportunities to All," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-33, October.
    2. Sudarno Sumarto & Benjamin A Olken & Abhijit Banerjee & Rema Hanna, . "(Ketiadaan) Efek Distorsi dari Proxy-Means Test: Hasil dari Eksperimen Berskala Nasional di Indonesia," Journal Article, Publications Department.
    3. Benjamin A Olken & Abhijit Banerjee & Rema Hanna & Sudarno Sumarto, . "The (Lack of) Distortionary Effects of Proxy-Means Tests: Results from a Nationwide Experiment in Indonesia," Journal Article, Publications Department.
    4. Jiandong Chen & Ping Wang & Jixian Zhou & Malin Song & Xinyue Zhang, 2022. "Influencing factors and efficiency of funds in humanitarian supply chains: the case of Chinese rural minimum living security funds," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 413-438, December.
    5. World Bank, 2020. "China Economic Update, July 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 34264, The World Bank Group.
    6. Martin Ravallion, 2022. "Missing Top Income Recipients," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(1), pages 205-222, March.
    7. Golan, Jennifer & Sicular, Terry & Umapathi, Nithin, 2017. "Unconditional Cash Transfers in China: Who Benefits from the Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee (Dibao) Program?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 316-336.
    8. Michael Lokshin & Martin Ravallion, 2022. "A market for work permits," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(111), pages 471-499.
    9. Margitic, Juan & Ravallion, Martin, 2019. "Lifting the floor? Economic development, social protection and the developing World's poorest," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 97-108.
    10. Ravallion, Martin, 2019. "Guaranteed employment or guaranteed income?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 209-221.
    11. Han, Huawei & Gao, Qin, 2019. "Community-based welfare targeting and political elite capture: Evidence from rural China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-159.
    12. Martin Ravallion, 2020. "On the Origins of the Idea of Ending Poverty," NBER Working Papers 27808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2013. "Benefit incidence with incentive effects, measurement errors and latent heterogeneity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6573, The World Bank.
    2. Margaret Grosh & Carlo del Ninno & Emil Tesliuc & Azedine Ouerghi, 2008. "For Protection and Promotion : The Design and Implementation of Effective Safety Nets," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6582.
    3. Birdsall, Nancy & Lustig, Nora & Meyer, Christian J., 2014. "The Strugglers: The New Poor in Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 132-146.
    4. Jose Cuesta & Jon Jellema & Lucia Ferrone, 2021. "Fiscal Policy, Multidimensional Poverty, and Equity in Uganda: A Child-Lens Analysis," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(3), pages 427-458, June.
    5. Lemieux, Thomas & Milligan, Kevin, 2008. "Incentive effects of social assistance: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 807-828, February.
    6. Bergolo, M. & Cruces, G., 2021. "The anatomy of behavioral responses to social assistance when informal employment is high," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    7. Cabrera, Maynor & Lustig, Nora & Morán, Hilcías E., 2015. "Fiscal Policy, Inequality, and the Ethnic Divide in Guatemala," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 263-279.
    8. Yixia Cai & Martin Evans, 2018. "Informal Transfers in Comparisons of Income Distributions: Lessons from Rich and Middle-Income Countries," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 26(2), pages 1-20, July.
    9. Pessino, Carola & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2018. "Better Spending for Better Lives: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Do More with Less," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 9152, November.
    10. Luis Huesca & Linda Llamas, 2016. "Testing for Pro-Poorness of Growth through the Tax System: The Mexican Case," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 5, pages 101-115.
    11. Abdelkrim Araar & Luis Huesca, 2014. "Comparison of the Tax System Progressivity Over Time: Theory and Application with Mexican Data," Cahiers de recherche 1419, CIRPEE.
    12. Luis Huesca Reynoso & Abdelkrim Araar, 2016. "Comparison of fiscal system progressivity over time: theory and application in Mexico," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 31(1), pages 3-45.
    13. Luis Huesca, 2017. "Income redistribution and inequality in the Mexican tax-benefit system," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 36(72), October.
    14. Brown, Caitlin & Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique, 2018. "A poor means test? Econometric targeting in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 109-124.
    15. Miguel Nino-Zarazua, 2011. "Mexico’s Progresa-Oportunidades and the emergence of Social Assistance in Latin America," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 14211, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    16. Chatzouz, Moustafa, 2014. "Government Debt and Wealth Inequality: Theory and Insights from Altruism," MPRA Paper 77007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Higgins, Sean & Lustig, Nora, 2016. "Can a poverty-reducing and progressive tax and transfer system hurt the poor?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 63-75.
    18. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    19. Marianne Bitler & Hilary Hoynes, 2016. "The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same? The Safety Net and Poverty in the Great Recession," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 403-444.
    20. Campos, Luciano & Casas, Agustín, 2021. "Rara Avis: Latin American populism in the 21st century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; Transfers; Marginal tax; Fiscal incidence; Optimal taxation; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:128:y:2015:i:c:p:124-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.