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Distribution and determinants of lifetime unemployment

Author

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  • Schmillen, Achim
  • Möller, Joachim
Abstract
The empirical literature on unemployment almost exclusively focuses on the duration of distinct unemployment spells. In contrast, we use a unique administrative micro data set for the time span 1975–2004 to investigate individual lifetime unemployment — defined as the cumulative length of all unemployment spells over a 25-year period. This new perspective enables us to answer questions regarding the long-term distribution and determinants of unemployment for birth cohorts 1950–1954. We show that lifetime unemployment is highly concentrated on a small part of the population. With censored quantile regressions we investigate the long-lasting influence of bad luck early in the professional career: Controlling for individual and firm characteristics we find that choosing at a young age what turns out to be an unfavorable occupation significantly increases the predicted amount of lifetime unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmillen, Achim & Möller, Joachim, 2012. "Distribution and determinants of lifetime unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:33-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2011.06.013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Michael Lucht & Anette Haas, 2012. "Heterogeneous Firms and Substitution by Tasks: the Productivity Effect of Migrants," ERSA conference papers ersa12p894, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Wölfel, Oliver & Heineck, Guido, 2012. "Parental risk attitudes and children's secondary school track choice," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 727-743.
    4. Riphahn, Regina T. & Schnitzlein, Daniel D., 2016. "Wage mobility in East and West Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 11-34.
    5. Schmillen, Achim & Umkehrer, Matthias, 2013. "The scars of youth : effects of early-career unemployment on future unemployment experience," IAB-Discussion Paper 201306, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Steffen Müller & Renate Neubaeumer, 2018. "Size of training firms – the role of firms, luck, and ability in young workers’ careers," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(5), pages 658-673, August.
    7. Grienberger Katharina & Janser Markus & Lehmer Florian, 2023. "The Occupational Panel for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(6), pages 711-724, December.
    8. Daniel Pollmann & Thomas Dohmen & Franz Palm, 2020. "Robust Estimation of Wage Dispersion with Censored Data: An Application to Occupational Earnings Risk and Risk Attitudes," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(4), pages 519-540, December.
    9. Marcelo Cajias & Philipp Freudenreich & Anna Freudenreich, 2020. "Exploring the determinants of real estate liquidity from an alternative perspective: censored quantile regression in real estate research," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 90(7), pages 1057-1086, August.
    10. Müller, Steffen & Neubäumer, Renate, 2016. "Size of Training Firms and Cumulated Long-run Unemployment Exposure – The Role of Firms, Luck, and Ability in Young Workers’ Careers," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Haas, Anette & Lucht, Michael & Schanne, Norbert, 2013. "Why to employ both migrants and natives? A study on task-specific substitutability," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 46(3), pages 201-214.
    12. Daniel Pollmann & Thomas Dohmen & Franz Palm, 2020. "Dispersion estimation; Earnings risk; Censoring; Quantile regression; Occupational choice; Sorting; Risk preferences; SOEP; IABS," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 028, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    13. Achim Schmillen, 2019. "Vocational education, occupational choice and unemployment over the professional career," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 805-838, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lifetime unemployment; Censored quantile regressions; Occupation-specific human capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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