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Measuring the effects of dollar appreciation on Asia: A FAVAR approach

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  • Liu, Zheng
  • Spiegel, Mark M.
  • Tai, Andrew
Abstract
Exchange rate shocks have mixed effects on economic activity in both theory and empirical VAR models. In this paper, we extend the empirical literature by considering the implications of a positive shock to the U.S. dollar in a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model for the U.S. and three large Asian economies: Korea, Japan and China. The FAVAR framework allows us to represent a country’s aggregate economic activity by a latent factor, generated from a broad set of underlying observable economic indicators. To control for global conditions, we also include in the FAVAR a “global conditions index,” which is another latent factor generated from the economic indicators of major trading partners. We find that a dollar appreciation shock reduces economic activity and inflation not only for the U.S. economy, but also for all three Asian economies. This result, which is robust to a number of alternative specifications, suggests that in spite of their disparate economic structures and policy regimes, the dollar appreciation shock affects the Asian economies primarily through its impact on U.S. aggregate demand; and this demand channel dominates the expenditure-switching channel that affects a country’s export competitiveness.

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  • Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Tai, Andrew, 2017. "Measuring the effects of dollar appreciation on Asia: A FAVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 353-370.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:353-370
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.025
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    Cited by:

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    2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Mark M. Spiegel & Andrew Tai, 2017. "International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Favar Approach," Working Paper Series 2017-8, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Mukesh Kumar & Azeema Begam & Nargis, 2020. "The Impact of Currency Depreciation on Exports of SAARC Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 16-29, March.
    5. Wei Sun & Kuhelika De, 2019. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy, And The U.S. Economy: Evidence From A Favar Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 552-568, January.
    6. Zubarev, A. & Rybak, K., 2022. "The impact of global shocks on the Russian economy: FAVAR approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 48-68.
    7. De, Kuhelika & Sun, Wei, 2020. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? Evidence from the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-9.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Real exchange rate; FAVAR; United States; Korea; Japan; China; Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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