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Stock return ignorance

Author

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  • Merkoulova, Yulia
  • Veld, Chris
Abstract
Optimal stock investment decisions rely on assessments of the distribution of expected returns. Using a representative sample, we find over half the US population cannot answer simple questions on expected stock returns. Respondents who are unable to make any return prediction, who cannot answer questions on the distribution of expected returns, or who reveal unlikely distributional beliefs participate less in the stock market and have smaller stock investments. However, overoptimistic investors are more likely to participate in the stock market and have larger stock investments. These results persist after controlling for financial literacy, intelligence, education, and demographics. People who are ignorant about stock return distribution are more likely to invest in equities if they have higher levels of trust. Therefore, trust can substitute for cognition as a factor positively associated with individuals’ propensity to invest.

Suggested Citation

  • Merkoulova, Yulia & Veld, Chris, 2022. "Stock return ignorance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 864-884.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:144:y:2022:i:3:p:864-884
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Merkoulova, Yulia & Veld, Chris, 2022. "Why do individuals not participate in the stock market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Sias, Richard & Starks, Laura T. & Turtle, H.J., 2023. "The negativity bias and perceived return distributions: Evidence from a pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 627-657.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market participation puzzle; Stock return ignorance; Overoptimism; Financial literacy; Intelligence; Trust;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy

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