[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jebusi/v53y2001i1p85-102.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trend-stationarity, difference-stationarity, or neither: further diagnostic tests with an application to U.S. Real GNP, 1875-1993

Author

Listed:
  • Newbold, Paul
  • Leybourne, Stephen
  • Wohar, Mark E.
Abstract
No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Newbold, Paul & Leybourne, Stephen & Wohar, Mark E., 2001. "Trend-stationarity, difference-stationarity, or neither: further diagnostic tests with an application to U.S. Real GNP, 1875-1993," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 85-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:53:y:2001:i:1:p:85-102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148-6195(00)00035-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faust, Jon, 1996. "Near Observational Equivalence and Theoretical size Problems with Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 724-731, October.
    2. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    3. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-478, October.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January.
    5. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
    6. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    7. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    8. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    9. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-433, March.
    10. Perron, Pierre & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1987. "Does GNP have a unit root? : A re-evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 139-145.
    11. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    12. Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February.
    13. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
    14. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(3), pages 661-680, August.
    15. Agiakloglou, Christos & Newbold, Paul, 1996. "The balance between size and power in Dickey-Fuller tests with data-dependent rules for the choice of truncation lag," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 229-234, September.
    16. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
    17. N. G. Shephard & A. C. Harvey, 1990. "On The Probability Of Estimating A Deterministic Component In The Local Level Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 339-347, July.
    18. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-118, February.
    19. Davis, Richard A. & Dunsmuir, William T.M., 1996. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for MA(1) Processes with a Root on or near the Unit Circle," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    20. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1999. "Modified Stationarity Tests with Data-Dependent Model-Selection Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 264-270, April.
    21. Lutz Kilian & Lee E. Ohanian, 1998. "Is there a trend break in U.S. GNP? A macroeconomic perspective," Staff Report 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    22. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    23. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-272, March.
    24. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    25. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    26. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    27. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
    28. Leybourne, Stephen J. & C. Mills, Terence & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 191-203, August.
    29. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
    30. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    31. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
    32. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Does GNP have a unit root?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(2-3), pages 147-151.
    33. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Consistent Test for a Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-166, April.
    34. Balke, Nathan S. & Fomby, Thomas B., 1991. "Shifting trends, segmented trends, and infrequent permanent shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-85, August.
    35. Ruey S. Tsay, 1992. "Model Checking Via Parametric Bootstraps in Time Series Analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-15, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Yang Fuyu & Leon-Gonzalez Roberto, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation and Model Selection in the Generalized Stochastic Unit Root Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, September.
    3. Pedro Clavijo-Cortes, 2021. "How persistent is unemployment in major Latin American economies?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 342-360.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    5. Vougas, Dimitrios V., 2007. "Is the trend in post-WW II US real GDP uncertain or non-linear?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 348-355, March.
    6. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2012. "A note on the uncertain trend in US real GNP: Evidence from robust unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2399-2406.
    7. Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 153-166, March.
    8. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Jaeho, 2013. "The `Pile-up Problem' in Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Real GDP: Classical and Bayesian Perspectives," MPRA Paper 51118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. repec:hit:hitjcm:v:56:y:2015:i:1:p:117-134 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 2015. "Uncertain Effects Of Shocks Vs. Uncertain Unit Root: An Alternative View Of U.S. Real Gdp," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 56(1), pages 117-134, June.
    11. Xiao-Ming Li, 2004. "A Quasi-Bayesian Analysis of Structural Breaks: China's Output and Productivity Series," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(1), pages 57-65, April.
    12. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    13. Steven Cook, 2003. "The Convergence of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(11), pages 2285-2294, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
    3. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Working Papers 0040, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    7. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    8. David H Papell & Ruxandra Prodan, 2007. "Restricted Structural Change And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 834-853, October.
    9. Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 153-166, March.
    10. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "Multiple trend shifts and unit roots in US state income levels: implications for long-run growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 641-661, June.
    11. Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2006. "Unit root testing," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 43-58, March.
    12. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    13. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2012. "A note on the uncertain trend in US real GNP: Evidence from robust unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2399-2406.
    14. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    15. H. Naci Mocan & Hope Corman, 2000. "A Time-Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence, and Drug Abuse in New York City," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 584-604, June.
    16. Diego Romero‐Ávila, 2007. "The Unit Root Hypothesis for Aggregate Output May Not Hold after All: New Evidence from a Panel Stationarity Test with Multiple Breaks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 642-658, January.
    17. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
    18. Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 404-415, October.
    19. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2006. "Chocs temporaires et permanents dans le PIB de la France, du Royaume-Uni et des États-Unis," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(1), pages 65-78.
    20. Perron, Pierre, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas d’une variable," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 325-356, mars et j.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:53:y:2001:i:1:p:85-102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-economics-and-business .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.