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Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate

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  • Thornton, Daniel L.
Abstract
The expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure plays an important role in the analysis of monetary policy, where shorter-term rates are assumed to be determined by the market?s expectation for the overnight federal funds rate. With two exceptions, tests using the effective federal funds rate as the short-term rate easily reject the EH. These exceptions are when the EH is tested over the nonborrowed reserve targeting period and when the test is performed only using data for settlement Wednesdays?the last day of bank?s reserve maintenance period. This paper argues that these exceptions are anomalous: In the former case, the failure to reject the EH occurs when economic analysis suggests that the market should be less able to forecast the federal funds rate. In the latter case, it occurs when there are sharp spikes in the funds rate that cannot improve materially the market?s ability to forecast the funds rate. Additional analysis shows that these anomalous results are a consequence of the procedure used to test the EH.
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  • Thornton, Daniel L., 2005. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2541-2556, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:29:y:2005:i:10:p:2541-2556
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 478-497, September.
    2. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects," Working Papers 2007-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Thornton, Daniel L., 2014. "Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don’t)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 202-213.
    4. Clemens J. M. Kool & Daniel L. Thornton, 2015. "How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(4), pages 303-322.
    5. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2018. "Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long‐Term Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 513-543, March.
    7. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 158-174, July.
    8. M. Hadzi-Vaskov & C.J.M. Kool, 2006. "The Importance of Interest Rate Volatility in Empirical Tests of Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 06-16, Utrecht School of Economics.
    9. Morten L. Bech & Elizabeth C. Klee & Viktors Stebunovs, 2012. "Arbitrage, liquidity and exit: the repo and federal funds markets before, during, and emerging from the financial crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Samih Antoine Azar, 2018. "Forward Unbiasedness in the Short End of the Interest Rate Market," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 70-78, February.
    13. João F. Caldeira, 2020. "Investigating the expectation hypothesis and the risk premium dynamics: new evidence for Brazil," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 395-412, July.
    14. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Nonlinear adjustment between the Eonia and Euribor rates: a two-regime threshold cointegration analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 139-143, January.
    15. repec:bla:germec:v:7:y:2006:i::p:163-187 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
    17. Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2681-2689.
    18. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Evidence on the portfolio balance channel of quantitative easing," Working Papers 2012-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite & Michael Lamla, 2019. "Treasuries variance decomposition and the impact of monetary policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1506-1519, October.
    20. Nicholas Addai Boamah, 2016. "Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rate: the case of Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, January.
    21. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite, 2015. "Always and Everywhere Inflation? Treasuries Variance Decomposition and the Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    22. Lizardo Radhames A. & Mollick Andre Varella, 2011. "The Impact of Chinese Purchases of U.S. Government Debt on the Treasury Yield Curve," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-23, December.
    23. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2020. "The EHTS and the persistence in the spread reconsidered. A fractional cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 124-137.

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