20% [>60%] of expected international wholesale fuel prices1 are necessary to minimize emissions when considering emissions penalties [without pricing for emissions]. By 2030 renewables can reach 70% penetration by capacity and 30% by energy."> 20% [>60%] of expected international wholesale fuel prices1 are necessary to minimize emissions when considering emissions penalties [without pricing for emissions]. By 2030 renewables can reach 70% penetration by capacity and 30% by energy.">
[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juipol/v50y2018icp1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fuel-price reform to achieve climate and energy policy goals in Saudi Arabia: A multiple-scenario analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Groissböck, Markus
  • Pickl, Matthias J.
Abstract
Saudi Arabia experiences annual growth of 6% in its power demand. Generation expansion has been driven by low domestic retail fuel prices leading to a power generation mix based on fossil fuels only. In light of current climate change discussions, this research assesses future generation expansion under different potential fuel-price reforms by an enhanced OSeMOSYS model. Results demonstrate that domestic retail fuel price levels >20% [>60%] of expected international wholesale fuel prices1 are necessary to minimize emissions when considering emissions penalties [without pricing for emissions]. By 2030 renewables can reach 70% penetration by capacity and 30% by energy.

Suggested Citation

  • Groissböck, Markus & Pickl, Matthias J., 2018. "Fuel-price reform to achieve climate and energy policy goals in Saudi Arabia: A multiple-scenario analysis," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:50:y:2018:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2017.12.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178717300012
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jup.2017.12.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shahmohammadi, M. Sadegh & Mohd. Yusuff, Rosnah & Keyhanian, Sina & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2015. "A decision support system for evaluating effects of Feed-in Tariff mechanism: Dynamic modeling of Malaysia’s electricity generation mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 217-229.
    2. Gately, Dermot & Al-Yousef, Nourah & Al-Sheikh, Hamad M.H., 2012. "The rapid growth of domestic oil consumption in Saudi Arabia and the opportunity cost of oil exports foregone," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 57-68.
    3. Fuso Nerini, Francesco & Dargaville, Roger & Howells, Mark & Bazilian, Morgan, 2015. "Estimating the cost of energy access: The case of the village of Suro Craic in Timor Leste," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 385-397.
    4. Griffiths, Steven, 2017. "A review and assessment of energy policy in the Middle East and North Africa region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 249-269.
    5. Paolo Verme, 2017. "Subsidy Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa Region: A Review," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Paolo Verme & Abdlekrim Araar (ed.), The Quest for Subsidy Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa Region, chapter 0, pages 3-31, Springer.
    6. Thiam, Djiby-Racine & Benders, René M.J. & Moll, Henri C., 2012. "Modeling the transition towards a sustainable energy production in developing nations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 98-108.
    7. Cantner, Uwe & Graf, Holger & Herrmann, Johannes & Kalthaus, Martin, 2016. "Inventor networks in renewable energies: The influence of the policy mix in Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1165-1184.
    8. Brand, Bernhard & Missaoui, Rafik, 2014. "Multi-criteria analysis of electricity generation mix scenarios in Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 251-261.
    9. Dartanto, Teguh, 2013. "Reducing fuel subsidies and the implication on fiscal balance and poverty in Indonesia: A simulation analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 117-134.
    10. Chaudry, Modassar & Jenkins, Nick & Qadrdan, Meysam & Wu, Jianzhong, 2014. "Combined gas and electricity network expansion planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1171-1187.
    11. Araar,Abdelkrim & Verme,Paolo, 2016. "A comparative analysis of subsidy reforms in the Middle East and North Africa Region," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7755, The World Bank.
    12. Walmsley, Michael R.W. & Walmsley, Timothy G. & Atkins, Martin J. & Kamp, Peter J.J. & Neale, James R., 2014. "Minimising carbon emissions and energy expended for electricity generation in New Zealand through to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 656-665.
    13. Zhang, Qi & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Ishihara, Keiichi N., 2013. "An integrated model for long-term power generation planning toward future smart electricity systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1424-1437.
    14. Moshiri, Saeed, 2015. "The effects of the energy price reform on households consumption in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 177-188.
    15. Welsch, Manuel & Deane, Paul & Howells, Mark & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Rogan, Fionn & Bazilian, Morgan & Rogner, Hans-Holger, 2014. "Incorporating flexibility requirements into long-term energy system models – A case study on high levels of renewable electricity penetration in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 600-615.
    16. Howells, Mark & Rogner, Holger & Strachan, Neil & Heaps, Charles & Huntington, Hillard & Kypreos, Socrates & Hughes, Alison & Silveira, Semida & DeCarolis, Joe & Bazillian, Morgan & Roehrl, Alexander, 2011. "OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5850-5870, October.
    17. Gonzalez-Salazar, Miguel Angel & Venturini, Mauro & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Finkenrath, Matthias & Kirsten, Trevor & Acevedo, Helmer & Spina, Pier Ruggero, 2016. "A general modeling framework to evaluate energy, economy, land-use and GHG emissions nexus for bioenergy exploitation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 223-249.
    18. Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq & Ramli, Ahmad Termizi & Saleh, Muneer Aziz, 2013. "Nigeria electricity crisis: Power generation capacity expansion and environmental ramifications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 354-367.
    19. Alyousef, Yousef & Stevens, Paul, 2011. "The cost of domestic energy prices to Saudi Arabia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6900-6905.
    20. Welsch, M. & Howells, M. & Bazilian, M. & DeCarolis, J.F. & Hermann, S. & Rogner, H.H., 2012. "Modelling elements of Smart Grids – Enhancing the OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System) code," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 337-350.
    21. Fairuz, S.M.C. & Sulaiman, M.Y. & Lim, C.H. & Mat, S. & Ali, B. & Saadatian, O. & Ruslan, M.H. & Salleh, E. & Sopian, K., 2013. "Long term strategy for electricity generation in Peninsular Malaysia – Analysis of cost and carbon footprint using MESSAGE," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 493-502.
    22. Groissböck, Markus & Pickl, Matthias J., 2016. "An analysis of the power market in Saudi Arabia: Retrospective cost and environmental optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 548-558.
    23. Dhakouani, Asma & Gardumi, Francesco & Znouda, Essia & Bouden, Chiheb & Howells, Mark, 2017. "Long-term optimisation model of the Tunisian power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 550-562.
    24. Wu, Jung-Hua & Huang, Yun-Hsun, 2014. "Electricity portfolio planning model incorporating renewable energy characteristics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 278-287.
    25. Farnoosh, Arash & Lantz, Frederic & Percebois, Jacques, 2014. "Electricity generation analyses in an oil-exporting country: Transition to non-fossil fuel based power units in Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 299-308.
    26. English, J. & Niet, T. & Lyseng, B. & Palmer-Wilson, K. & Keller, V. & Moazzen, I. & Pitt, L. & Wild, P. & Rowe, A., 2017. "Impact of electrical intertie capacity on carbon policy effectiveness," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 571-581.
    27. van der Zwaan, Bob & Cameron, Lachlan & Kober, Tom, 2013. "Potential for renewable energy jobs in the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 296-304.
    28. Bazilian, Morgan & Rice, Andrew & Rotich, Juliana & Howells, Mark & DeCarolis, Joseph & Macmillan, Stuart & Brooks, Cameron & Bauer, Florian & Liebreich, Michael, 2012. "Open source software and crowdsourcing for energy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 149-153.
    29. Mansouri, Noura Y. & Crookes, Roy J. & Korakianitis, Theodosios, 2013. "A projection of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in the electricity sector for Saudi Arabia: The case for carbon capture and storage and solar photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 681-695.
    30. Atalla, Tarek N. & Hunt, Lester C., 2016. "Modelling residential electricity demand in the GCC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 149-158.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Groissböck, Markus & Pickl, Matthias J., 2016. "An analysis of the power market in Saudi Arabia: Retrospective cost and environmental optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 548-558.
    2. Rady, Yassin Yehia & Rocco, Matteo V. & Serag-Eldin, M.A. & Colombo, Emanuela, 2018. "Modelling for power generation sector in Developing Countries: Case of Egypt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 198-209.
    3. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Griffiths, Steven, 2017. "A review and assessment of energy policy in the Middle East and North Africa region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 249-269.
    5. Dhakouani, Asma & Znouda, Essia & Bouden, Chiheb, 2019. "Impacts of energy efficiency policies on the integration of renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. English, J. & Niet, T. & Lyseng, B. & Palmer-Wilson, K. & Keller, V. & Moazzen, I. & Pitt, L. & Wild, P. & Rowe, A., 2017. "Impact of electrical intertie capacity on carbon policy effectiveness," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 571-581.
    7. Jayadev, Gopika & Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Kutanoglu, Erhan, 2020. "U.S. electricity infrastructure of the future: Generation and transmission pathways through 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    8. Keller, Victor & English, Jeffrey & Fernandez, Julian & Wade, Cameron & Fowler, McKenzie & Scholtysik, Sven & Palmer-Wilson, Kevin & Donald, James & Robertson, Bryson & Wild, Peter & Crawford, Curran , 2019. "Electrification of road transportation with utility controlled charging: A case study for British Columbia with a 93% renewable electricity target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Francesco Gardumi & Manuel Welsch & Mark Howells & Emanuela Colombo, 2019. "Representation of Balancing Options for Variable Renewables in Long-Term Energy System Models: An Application to OSeMOSYS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Jornada, Daniel & Leon, V. Jorge, 2016. "Robustness methodology to aid multiobjective decision making in the electricity generation capacity expansion problem to minimize cost and water withdrawal," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1089-1108.
    11. Thushara, De Silva M. & Hornberger, George M. & Baroud, Hiba, 2019. "Decision analysis to support the choice of a future power generation pathway for Sri Lanka," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 680-697.
    12. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    13. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Georgiadis, Michael C., 2015. "A multi-period, multi-regional generation expansion planning model incorporating unit commitment constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 310-331.
    14. Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Aryanpur, Vahid, 2018. "Multi-objective optimization for sustainable development of the power sector: An economic, environmental, and social analysis of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 493-507.
    15. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    16. Keller, Victor & Lyseng, Benjamin & Wade, Cameron & Scholtysik, Sven & Fowler, McKenzie & Donald, James & Palmer-Wilson, Kevin & Robertson, Bryson & Wild, Peter & Rowe, Andrew, 2019. "Electricity system and emission impact of direct and indirect electrification of heavy-duty transportation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 740-751.
    17. Bistline, John E.T. & Merrick, James H., 2020. "Parameterizing open-source energy models: Statistical learning to estimate unknown power plant attributes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    18. Sadeghi, Hadi & Rashidinejad, Masoud & Abdollahi, Amir, 2017. "A comprehensive sequential review study through the generation expansion planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1369-1394.
    19. Welsch, Manuel & Deane, Paul & Howells, Mark & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Rogan, Fionn & Bazilian, Morgan & Rogner, Hans-Holger, 2014. "Incorporating flexibility requirements into long-term energy system models – A case study on high levels of renewable electricity penetration in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 600-615.
    20. Borasio, M. & Moret, S., 2022. "Deep decarbonisation of regional energy systems: A novel modelling approach and its application to the Italian energy transition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:50:y:2018:i:c:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/utilities-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.