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A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement

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  • Timini, Jacopo
  • Viani, Francesca
Abstract
In this paper we analyze the EU-Mercosur agreement and predict its effects on trade and welfare using a general equilibrium structural gravity model. First, we exploit the detailed provision-level information available for the EU-Mercosur agreement to identify partial equilibrium trade effects of existing treaties with similar set of provisions. In a second step, the estimated increase in trade is mapped into reductions in bilateral trade costs and imputed to EU-Mercosur country pairs to compute the general equilibrium effects of the agreement in terms of trade creation, trade diversion, and welfare effects. Our results indicate that the positive effects on trade and welfare stemming from the EU-Mercosur agreement are likely to be economically important, especially for Mercosur countries, and substantially heterogeneous both between and within the two blocs.

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  • Timini, Jacopo & Viani, Francesca, 2022. "A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 291-308.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:169:y:2022:i:c:p:291-308
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2022.02.003
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    1. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Geopolitical fragmentation and trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1289-1315.
    2. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Timini, Jacopo & Vidal, Elena, 2021. "Structural gravity and trade agreements: Does the measurement of domestic trade matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    3. González, Javier & Latorre, María C. & Valverde, Gabriela Ortiz, 2022. "A comprehensive short and long-run assessment on the impact of the EU-Mercosur agreement on Brazil," Conference papers 333391, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Gonzalez Cabrera, Carlos Javier & Latorre, María C. & Ortiz Valverde, Gabriela, 2020. "A Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) assessment of the short and long-run impact on Brazil of the European Union – Mercosur Trade Agreement," Conference papers 333242, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jacopo Timini, 2022. "Unequal trade, unequal gains: the heterogeneous impact of MERCOSUR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(49), pages 5655-5669, October.
    6. Javier Flórez Mendoza & Bernhard Moshammer, 2023. "FIW-PB 60 The EU–Mercosur agreement: Expectations and concerns in light of the new geopolitical situation," FIW Policy Brief series 60, FIW.
    7. Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "The Variation of Gravity within Countries (or 15 Reasons Why Gravity Should Be Estimated with Domestic Trade Flows)," CESifo Working Paper Series 9057, CESifo.
    8. Gabriel Mhonyera & Daniel Francois Meyer, 2023. "The Impact of AfCFTA on Welfare and Trade: Nigeria and South Africa in Light of Core Export Competences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "On the role of domestic trade flows for estimating the gravity model of trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 526-540, July.
    10. Iván Kataryniuk & Javier Pérez & Francesca Viani, 2021. "(De-)Globalisation of trade and regionalisation: a survey of the facts and arguments," Occasional Papers 2124, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU; Mercosur; Trade agreement; Structural gravity; General equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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