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Spatial modeling of stock market comovements

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  • Fernández-Avilés, Gema
  • Montero, Jose-María
  • Orlov, Alexei G.
Abstract
We model the complex global dependencies in international financial markets using spatial techniques. Our methodology allows us to go beyond conventional correlation analyses and volatility-spillover models confined to studying pairwise relationships, and improves the accuracy of return predictions. We find that stock market comovements are unrelated to geographical proximity, and that financial linkages, as measured by foreign direct investment (FDI) ties, are important in accounting for markets comovements. Our results suggest that the proposed measure of financial distance, coupled with spatial methodology, captures fairly accurately the dependencies in the world financial markets, providing important implications for policymaking and portfolio management.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández-Avilés, Gema & Montero, Jose-María & Orlov, Alexei G., 2012. "Spatial modeling of stock market comovements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 202-212.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:9:y:2012:i:4:p:202-212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2012.05.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Tam, Pui Sun, 2014. "A spatial–temporal analysis of East Asian equity market linkages," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 304-327.
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    8. Henok Fasil Telila, 2024. "Frontier markets sovereign risk: New evidence from spatial econometric models," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 10, Stata Users Group.
    9. Hüttner, Amelie & Scherer, Matthias & Gräler, Benedikt, 2020. "Geostatistical modeling of dependent credit spreads: Estimation of large covariance matrices and imputation of missing data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Jiang, Shangwei & Jin, Xiu, 2021. "Effects of investor sentiment on stock return volatility: A spatio-temporal dynamic panel model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 298-306.
    11. Yang, Lixiong & Lee, Chingnun & Shie, Fu Shuen, 2014. "How close a relationship does a capital market have with other markets? A reexamination based on the equal variance test," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 198-226.
    12. Tissaoui, Kais & Zaghdoudi, Taha, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between the U.S. financial market and Euro-Asian financial markets: Testing transmission of uncertainty through spatial regressions models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 481-492.
    13. Noureddine Benlagha, 2014. "Dependence structure between nominal and index-linked bond returns: a bivariate copula and DCC-GARCH approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(31), pages 3849-3860, November.
    14. Enzo D'Innocenzo & André Lucas & Anne Opschoor & Xingmin Zhang, 2024. "Heterogeneity and dynamics in network models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 150-173, January.
    15. Liu, Chih-Liang & Yang, Hsin-Feng, 2017. "Systemic risk in carry-trade portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 40-46.
    16. Xiurong Chen & Aimin Hao & Yali Li, 2020. "The impact of financial contagion on real economy-An empirical research based on combination of complex network technology and spatial econometrics model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-20, March.
    17. Mo, Guoli & Tan, Chunzhi & Zhang, Weiguo & Liu, Fang, 2019. "International portfolio of stock indices with spatiotemporal correlations: Can investors still benefit from portfolio, when and where?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 168-183.
    18. Chen, Hanxiao & Zheng, Xiaolong & Zeng, Daniel Dajun, 2020. "Analyzing the co-movement and its spatial–temporal patterns in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 555(C).
    19. Giuseppe Arbia & Michele Di Marcantonio, 2015. "Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, November.
    20. Milcheva, Stanimira & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 148-171.
    21. Michael A. Goldstein & Joseph McCarthy & Alexei G. Orlov, 2019. "The Core, Periphery, and Beyond: Stock Market Comovements among EU and Non‐EU Countries," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 5-56, February.
    22. Chen, Ting-Hsuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2020. "Spatial analysis of liquidity risk in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock markets comovements; Geostatistics; Variogram; Kriging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

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