[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v85y2015icp487-499.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of renewables in space and time: A regime switching model of the Italian power price

Author

Listed:
  • Sapio, Alessandro
Abstract
Renewable energy production can exercise a downward pressure on electricity prices by partly crowding out conventional units characterized by higher marginal costs (merit order effect). Yet, congestion induced by renewables would partly offset the merit order effect in the congested zone, unless renewables reduce the need for imports and allow the emergence of prosumers. These congestion effects of renewables are hereby jointly tested with the merit order effect by means of an endogenous regime-switching model wherein a regime corresponds to the observable status (congested/non-congested) of the grid. The model is taken to data from the Italian power exchange, observed in 2012 and 2013, with a focus on the line connecting Sicily with the South zone, a frequent bottleneck in the Italian transmission grid. The results confirm the merit order effect previously detected in the literature and highlight a negative congestion effect, i.e. renewables relieve congestion from Sicily, a systematic importer, but not from the Italian peninsula (the exporting region). This effect is mainly driven by the wind power in-feed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sapio, Alessandro, 2015. "The effects of renewables in space and time: A regime switching model of the Italian power price," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 487-499.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:85:y:2015:i:c:p:487-499
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.07.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515300367
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.07.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weron, R & Bierbrauer, M & Trück, S, 2004. "Modeling electricity prices: jump diffusion and regime switching," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(1), pages 39-48.
    2. Marcella Nicolini & Simona Porcheri, 2014. "The energy sector in Mediterranean and MENA countries," Chapters, in: Carlo Altomonte & Massimiliano Ferrara (ed.), The Economic and Political Aftermath of the Arab Spring, chapter 6, pages 179-203, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Kanamura, Takashi & O[combining macron]hashi, Kazuhiko, 2008. "On transition probabilities of regime switching in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1158-1172, May.
    4. Gianfreda, Angelica & Grossi, Luigi, 2012. "Forecasting Italian electricity zonal prices with exogenous variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2228-2239.
    5. McConnell, Dylan & Hearps, Patrick & Eales, Dominic & Sandiford, Mike & Dunn, Rebecca & Wright, Matthew & Bateman, Lachlan, 2013. "Retrospective modeling of the merit-order effect on wholesale electricity prices from distributed photovoltaic generation in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 17-27.
    6. Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.
    7. Rubino, Alessandro & Cuomo, Michael, 2015. "A regulatory assessment of the Electricity Merchant Transmission Investment in EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 464-474.
    8. Fabra, Natalia & Toro, Juan, 2005. "Price wars and collusion in the Spanish electricity market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 155-181, April.
    9. Kevin Ummel & David Wheeler, 2008. "Desert Power: The Economics of Solar Thermal Electricity for Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East," Working Papers 156, Center for Global Development.
    10. Mari, Carlo & Tondini, Daniela, 2010. "Regime switches induced by supply–demand equilibrium: a model for power-price dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4819-4827.
    11. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
    12. Sáenz de Miera, Gonzalo & del Ri­o González, Pablo & Vizcaino, Ignacio, 2008. "Analysing the impact of renewable electricity support schemes on power prices: The case of wind electricity in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3345-3359, September.
    13. Michael Lokshin & Zurab Sajaia, 2004. "Maximum likelihood estimation of endogenous switching regression models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(3), pages 282-289, September.
    14. Eric Guerci & Alessandro Sapio, 2012. "High wind penetration in an agent-based model of the electricity market," Post-Print halshs-00871036, HAL.
    15. Derek Bunn & Georg Zachmann, 2010. "Inefficient arbitrage in inter-regional electricity transmission," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 243-265, June.
    16. Ramteen Sioshansi, 2011. "Increasing the Value of Wind with Energy Storage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-30.
    17. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.
    18. Roger E. Bohn & Michael C. Caramanis & Fred C. Schweppe, 1984. "Optimal Pricing in Electrical Networks over Space and Time," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(3), pages 360-376, Autumn.
    19. Haldrup Niels & Nielsen Morten Ø., 2006. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
    20. Federico Boffa & Carlo Scarpa, 2009. "An Anticompetitive Effect of Eliminating Transport Barriers in Network Markets," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 34(2), pages 115-133, March.
    21. Mari, Carlo, 2006. "Regime-switching characterization of electricity prices dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 371(2), pages 552-564.
    22. Janczura, Joanna & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał & Wolff, Rodney C., 2013. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 96-110.
    23. Paraschiv, Florentina & Erni, David & Pietsch, Ralf, 2014. "The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-210.
    24. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
    25. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
    26. Twomey, Paul & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2010. "Wind power and market power in competitive markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3198-3210, July.
    27. Karsten Neuhoff, 2011. "Opening the Electricity Market to Renewable Energy: Making Better Use of the Grid," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 16-23.
    28. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prata, Ricardo & Carvalho, Pedro M.S. & Azevedo, Inês L., 2018. "Distributional costs of wind energy production in Portugal under the liberalized Iberian market regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 500-512.
    2. Grossi, Luigi & Mussini, Mauro, 2018. "A spatial shift-share decomposition of electricity consumption changes across Italian regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 278-293.
    3. Sapio, Alessandro & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2020. "The effect of a new power cable on energy prices volatility spillovers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Alex Coad & Nanditha Mathew & Emanuele Pugliese, 2017. "What's good for the goose ain't good for the gander: cock-eyed counterfactuals and the performance effects of R&D," LEM Papers Series 2017/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Gianfreda, Angelica & Parisio, Lucia & Pelagatti, Matteo, 2018. "A review of balancing costs in Italy before and after RES introduction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 549-563.
    6. De Siano, Rita & Sapio, Alessandro, 2022. "Spatial merit order effects of renewables in the Italian power exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Kolb, Sebastian & Dillig, Marius & Plankenbühler, Thomas & Karl, Jürgen, 2020. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany - An update for the years 2014–2018," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    9. Angelica, Gianfreda & Lucia, Parisio & Matteo, Pelagatti, 2017. "The RES-induced Switching Effect Across Fossil Fuels: An Analysis of the Italian Day-Ahead and Balancing Prices and Their Connected Costs," Working Papers 360, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 03 Feb 2017.
    10. Beltrami, Filippo, 2024. "The impact of hydroelectric storage in Northern Italy’s power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Beltrami, Filippo & Fontini, Fulvio & Grossi, Luigi, 2021. "The value of carbon emission reduction induced by Renewable Energy Sources in the Italian power market," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    12. Graf, Christoph & Marcantonini, Claudio, 2017. "Renewable energy and its impact on thermal generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 421-430.
    13. Sapio, Alessandro & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2016. "Price regimes in an energy island: Tacit collusion vs. cost and network explanations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 157-172.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sapio, Alessandro & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2016. "Price regimes in an energy island: Tacit collusion vs. cost and network explanations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 157-172.
    2. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2017. "Forecasting electricity prices through robust nonlinear models," Working Papers 06/2017, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    3. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
    4. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2018. "The influence of renewables on electricity price forecasting: a robust approach," Working Papers 2018/10, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    5. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    6. De Siano, Rita & Sapio, Alessandro, 2022. "Spatial merit order effects of renewables in the Italian power exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    8. Martin de Lagarde, Cyril & Lantz, Frédéric, 2018. "How renewable production depresses electricity prices: Evidence from the German market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 263-277.
    9. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    10. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    11. Lisi, Francesco & Pelagatti, Matteo M., 2018. "Component estimation for electricity market data: Deterministic or stochastic?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 13-37.
    12. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    13. Zachmann, Georg, 2013. "A stochastic fuel switching model for electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 5-13.
    14. Joanna Janczura, 2012. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model," Papers 1203.5442, arXiv.org.
    15. Joanna Janczura, 2014. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(1), pages 1-30, February.
    16. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
    17. Zarnikau, J. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K., 2020. "Determinants of the wholesale prices of energy and ancillary services in the U.S. Midcontinent electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    18. Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    19. Gaurav Kapoor & Nuttanan Wichitaksorn & Wenjun Zhang, 2023. "Analyzing and forecasting electricity price using regime‐switching models: The case of New Zealand market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2011-2026, December.
    20. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renewables; Congestion; Regime switching model; Electricity price; Merit order effect; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:85:y:2015:i:c:p:487-499. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.