[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v38y2010i12p7827-7843.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports

Author

Listed:
  • Söderbergh, Bengt
  • Jakobsson, Kristofer
  • Aleklett, Kjell
Abstract
The widening gap between EU gas production and consumption may require an 87% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030, and there are great uncertainties regarding the amounts of gas that can be expected from new suppliers. The potential of increased production from Norway and Algeria is limited; hence, Russia is likely to play a crucial part of meeting the anticipated growing gas demand of the EU. A field-by-field study of 83 giant gas fields shows that the major producing Russian gas fields are in decline, and by 2013 much larger supplies from the Yamal Peninsula and the Shtokman field will be needed in order to avoid a decline in production. Gas from fields in Eastern Siberia and the Far East will mainly be directed to the Asian and Pacific Rim markets, thereby limiting its relevance to the European and CIS markets. As a result, the maximum export increase to the European and CIS markets amounts only to about 45% for the period 2015-2030. The discourse surrounding the EU's dependence on Russian gas should thus not only be concerned with geopolitics, but also with the issue of resource limitations.

Suggested Citation

  • Söderbergh, Bengt & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Aleklett, Kjell, 2010. "European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7827-7843, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:12:p:7827-7843
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(10)00657-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernandez, Rafael, 2009. "Russian gas exports have potential to grow through 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4029-4037, October.
    2. Söderbergh, Bengt & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5037-5055, December.
    3. Sagen, Eirik Lund & Tsygankova, Marina, 2008. "Russian natural gas exports--Will Russian gas price reforms improve the European security of supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 867-880, February.
    4. repec:bla:opecrv:v:32:y:2008:i:4:p:301-322 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
    6. Reymond, Mathias, 2007. "European key issues concerning natural gas: Dependence and vulnerability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4169-4176, August.
    7. Goldthau, Andreas, 2008. "Rhetoric versus reality: Russian threats to European energy supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 686-692, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Hochman, Gal & Fedets, Iryna, 2016. "Understanding energy efficiency barriers in Ukraine: Insights from a survey of commercial and industrial firms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 203-211.
    2. Christian Growitsch & Harald Hecking & Timo Panke, 2014. "Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly—An Application to the Global Gas Market," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 944-975, November.
    3. dos Santos, Sidney Pereira & Eugenio Leal, José & Oliveira, Fabrício, 2011. "The development of a natural gas transportation logistics management system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4774-4784, September.
    4. Aleksei Valentinovich Bogoviz & Svetlana Vladislavlevna Lobova & Yulia Vyacheslavovna Ragulina & Alexander Nikolaevich Alekseev, 2018. "Russia s Energy Security Doctrine: Addressing Emerging Challenges and Opportunities," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 1-6.
    5. Joelsson, Jonas & Gustavsson, Leif, 2012. "Swedish biomass strategies to reduce CO2 emission and oil use in an EU context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 448-468.
    6. Kirill A. Bashmur & Oleg A. Kolenchukov & Vladimir V. Bukhtoyarov & Vadim S. Tynchenko & Sergei O. Kurashkin & Elena V. Tsygankova & Vladislav V. Kukartsev & Roman B. Sergienko, 2022. "Biofuel Technologies and Petroleum Industry: Synergy of Sustainable Development for the Eastern Siberian Arctic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-25, October.
    7. P. Hammond, Geoffrey & O' Grady, Áine, 2017. "The life cycle greenhouse gas implications of a UK gas supply transformation on a future low carbon electricity sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 937-949.
    8. Berk, Istemi & Ediger, Volkan Ş., 2016. "Forecasting the coal production: Hubbert curve application on Turkey's lignite fields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-203.
    9. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Hochman, Gal & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2017. "Energy efficiency barriers in commercial and industrial firms in Ukraine: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 22-30.
    11. Tavana, Madjid & Behzadian, Majid & Pirdashti, Mohsen & Pirdashti, Hasan, 2013. "A PROMETHEE-GDSS for oil and gas pipeline planning in the Caspian Sea basin," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 716-728.
    12. Ediger, Volkan Ş. & Berk, Istemi, 2023. "Future availability of natural gas: Can it support sustainable energy transition?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    13. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    14. Madurai Elavarasan, Rajvikram & Pugazhendhi, Rishi & Irfan, Muhammad & Mihet-Popa, Lucian & Campana, Pietro Elia & Khan, Irfan Ahmad, 2022. "A novel Sustainable Development Goal 7 composite index as the paradigm for energy sustainability assessment: A case study from Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    15. Tavana, Madjid & Pirdashti, Mohsen & Kennedy, Dennis T. & Belaud, Jean-Pierre & Behzadian, Majid, 2012. "A hybrid Delphi-SWOT paradigm for oil and gas pipeline strategic planning in Caspian Sea basin," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 345-360.
    16. Crow, Daniel J.G. & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2018. "A dynamic model of global natural gas supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 452-469.
    17. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    18. Daniel J. G. Crow & Kris Anderson & Adam D. Hawkes & Nigel Brandon, 2018. "Impact of Drilling Costs on the US Gas Industry: Prospects for Automation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-13, August.
    19. Lunden, Lars Petter & Fjaertoft, Daniel & Overland, Indra & Prachakova, Alesia, 2013. "Gazprom vs. other Russian gas producers: The evolution of the Russian gas sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 663-670.
    20. Johnson, Corey & Boersma, Tim, 2013. "Energy (in)security in Poland the case of shale gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 389-399.
    21. Masih Mozakka & Mohsen Salimi & Morteza Hosseinpour & Tohid N. Borhani, 2022. "Why LNG Can Be a First Step in East Asia’s Energy Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: Evaluation of Challenges Using Game Theory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-17, September.
    22. Anca Gabriela Ilie & Marinela Luminita Emanuela Zlatea & Cristina Negreanu & Dan Dumitriu & Alma Pentescu, 2023. "Reliance on Russian Federation Energy Imports and Renewable Energy in the European Union," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 25(64), pages 780-780, August.
    23. Kateryna Yakovenko & Matúš Mišík, 2020. "Cooperation and Security: Examining the Political Discourse on Natural Gas Transit in Ukraine and Slovakia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-14, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Orlov, Anton, 2015. "An assessment of optimal gas pricing in Russia: A CGE approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 492-506.
    2. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    3. Finn Roar Aune, Rolf Golombek , Arild Moe, Knut Einar Rosendahl and Hilde Hallre Le Tissier, 2015. "Liberalizing Russian Gas Markets - An Economic Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Adelman S).
    4. Marina Tsygankova, 2008. "Netback pricing as a remedy for the Russian gas deficit," Discussion Papers 554, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Judith Clifton & Daniel Díaz-Fuentes, 2010. "Is the European Union Ready for Foreign Direct Investment from Emerging Markets?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Karl P. Sauvant & Geraldine McAllister & Wolfgang A. Maschek (ed.), Foreign Direct Investments from Emerging Markets, chapter 0, pages 335-358, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    7. Brkic, Dejan, 2009. "Serbian gas sector in the spotlight of oil and gas agreement with Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1925-1938, May.
    8. Cabalu, Helen, 2010. "Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 218-225, January.
    9. repec:fip:fedhep:y:2013:i:qii:p:30-46:n:vol.37no.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gedikoglu, Haluk & McCann, Laura M.J. & Artz, Georgeanne M., 2011. "Off-Farm Employment Effects on Adoption of Nutrient Management Practices," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 1-14, August.
    11. Scherrer-Rathje, Maike & Boyle, Todd A. & Deflorin, Patricia, 2009. "Lean, take two! Reflections from the second attempt at lean implementation," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 79-88.
    12. Farrell, Terence C., 2008. "An Economic Evaluation of Conservation Farming Practices for the Central West of NSW," 2008 Conference (52nd), February 5-8, 2008, Canberra, Australia 6177, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    13. Felipe Jiménez & Wilmar Cabrera-Montiel, 2014. "System for Road Vehicle Energy Optimization Using Real Time Road and Traffic Information," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-23, June.
    14. J�r�me Massiani, Giovanni Santoro, 2012. "The relevance of the concept of capacity for the management of a tourist destination: theory and application to tourism management in Venice," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 66(2), pages 141-156.
    15. Vassili Joannides & N. Berland, 2008. "Grounded theory: quels usages dans les recherches en contrôle de gestion?," Grenoble Ecole de Management (Post-Print) hal-00676580, HAL.
    16. Gauguier, Jean-Jacques, 2009. "L’industrialisation de l’Open Source," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/4388 edited by Toledano, Joëlle.
    17. Adrian K. James & Ronald W. Thring & Steve Helle & Harpuneet S. Ghuman, 2012. "Ash Management Review—Applications of Biomass Bottom Ash," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(10), pages 1-18, October.
    18. Hoen, K.M.R. & Güllü, R. & van Houtum, G.J. & Vliegen, I.M.H., 2011. "A simple and accurate approximation for the order fill rates in lost-sales Assemble-to-Order systems," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 95-104, September.
    19. Porro, Roberto & Lopez-Feldman, Alejandro & Vela-Alvarado, Jorge W., 2015. "Forest use and agriculture in Ucayali, Peru: Livelihood strategies, poverty and wealth in an Amazon frontier," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 47-56.
    20. Thierry Burger-Helmchen & Patrick Llerena, 2008. "A case study of a creative start-up: governance, communities and knowledge management," Journal of Innovation Economics, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 125-146.
    21. TANASE, George Cosmin, 2011. "The Retail Growth Strategies on the International Market and the Global Development Opportunities for Retailers," Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, Romanian Distribution Committee, vol. 2(4), pages 28-33, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia Giant gas fields Forecasting;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:12:p:7827-7843. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.