[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v16y2009i3p409-429.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The cross section of cashflow volatility and expected stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Alan Guoming
Abstract
I show that historical cashflow volatility is negatively related to future returns cross-sectionally. The negative association is large; economically meaningful; long-lasting up to five years; robust to known return-informative effects of size, value, price and earnings momentums and illiquidity; and extends to both systematic and idiosyncratic cashflow volatilities. Using the standard deviations of cashflow to sales and of cashflow to book equity as proxies for cashflow volatility, the least volatile decile portfolio outperforms the most volatile decile portfolio by 13% a year relative to the Fama-French four factors. The cashflow volatility effect is closely related to the idiosyncratic return volatility effect documented in Ang et al. [Ang, A., Hodrick, R.J., Xing, Y. and Zhang, X. "The cross-section of volatility and expected returns." Journal of Finance, 51 (2006), 259-299.]. However, in portfolios simultaneously sorted on both cashflow and return volatilities, and in cross sectional regressions of returns at the firm level, these two effects neither drive out nor dominate each other. While the pricing of idiosyncratic cashflow volatility represents an anomaly against the traditional asset pricing theories, the pricing of historical cashflow uncertainty sheds light on potential fundamental risks embodied in the Fama-French HML and SMB factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Alan Guoming, 2009. "The cross section of cashflow volatility and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 409-429, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:409-429
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927-5398(09)00003-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    4. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    5. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    6. Ľuboš Pástor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1789, October.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1749-1790 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Waymire, G, 1985. "Earnings Volatility And Voluntary Management Forecast Disclosure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 268-295.
    9. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 29-58, March.
    10. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    11. Steven X. Wei & Chu Zhang, 2006. "Why Did Individual Stocks Become More Volatile?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 259-292, January.
    12. Chen, Nai-fu & Zhang, Feng, 1998. "Risk and Return of Value Stocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 501-535, October.
    13. Chordia, Tarun & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2006. "Earnings and price momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 627-656, June.
    14. Berk, Jonathan B, 1995. "A Critique of Size-Related Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 275-286.
    15. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    16. Pervin K. Shroff, 1999. "The Variability of Earnings and Non-Earnings Information and Earnings Prediction," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(7&8), pages 863-882.
    17. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
    18. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    19. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    21. Haugen, Robert A. & Baker, Nardin L., 1996. "Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 401-439, July.
    22. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    23. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    24. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-1484, September.
    25. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    26. Brown, Philip, 1993. "Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 331-335, November.
    27. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. "Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December.
    28. Ronnie Sadka & Anna Scherbina, 2007. "Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing, and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2367-2403, October.
    29. Healy, Paul M., 1985. "The effect of bonus schemes on accounting decisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1-3), pages 85-107, April.
    30. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hou, Kewei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," Working Paper Series 2017-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    2. Walkshäusl, Christian, 2014. "The MAX effect: European evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Sati P. Bandyopadhyay & Alan Guoming Huang & Kevin Jialin Sun & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2017. "The return premiums to accruals quality," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 83-115, January.
    4. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    5. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    6. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    7. Aboulamer, Anas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-36.
    8. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    9. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    10. Anton Astakhov & Tomas Havranek & Jiri Novak, 2019. "Firm Size And Stock Returns: A Quantitative Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 1463-1492, December.
    11. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    12. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    13. Waszczuk, Antonina, 2013. "A risk-based explanation of return patterns—Evidence from the Polish stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 186-210.
    14. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Huang, Tao & Li, Junye & Wu, Fei & Zhu, Ning, 2022. "R&D information quality and stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Boehme, Rodney & Çolak, Gönül, 2012. "Primary market characteristics and secondary market frictions of stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 286-327.
    17. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Amir Amel†Zadeh, 2011. "The Return of the Size Anomaly: Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(1), pages 145-182, January.
    19. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    20. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:409-429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.