[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v56y2012i8p1546-1572.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What drives the skill premium: Technological change or demographic variation?

Author

Listed:
  • He, Hui
Abstract
This paper quantitatively examines the effects of two exogenous driving forces, investment-specific technological change (ISTC) and the demographic change known as “the baby boom and the baby bust,” on the evolution of the skill premium and the college enrollment rate in the postwar U.S. economy. We develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous discrete schooling choice. The production technology features capital–skill complementarity as in Krusell et al. (2000). ISTC, through capital–skill complementarity, raises the relative demand for skilled labor, while demographic variation affects the skill premium by changing the age structure and hence the relative supply of skilled labor. We find that ISTC is the key element driving the skill premium in the postwar U.S. economy. And it is quantitatively important for the dynamics of the college enrollment rate. The quantitative importance of the demographic change for the evolution of both the skill premium and the college enrollment rate however is limited.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Hui, 2012. "What drives the skill premium: Technological change or demographic variation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1546-1572.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:56:y:2012:i:8:p:1546-1572
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.09.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292112001286
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.09.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diego Restuccia & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2013. "The Evolution Of Education: A Macroeconomic Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(3), pages 915-936, August.
    2. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Douglas H. Joines, 1999. "Social Security in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Land," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 638-665, July.
    3. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    4. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746.
    5. Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu, 2006. "Understanding Wage Inequality: Ben-Porath Meets Skill-Biased Technical Change," 2006 Meeting Papers 881, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
    7. Sarah Turner, 2004. "Going to College and Finishing College.Explaining Different Educational Outcomes," NBER Chapters, in: College Choices: The Economics of Where to Go, When to Go, and How to Pay For It, pages 13-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. John Duffy & Chris Papageorgiou & Fidel Perez-Sebastian, 2004. "Capital-Skill Complementarity? Evidence from a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 327-344, February.
    9. Zvi Eckstein & Eva Nagypal, 2004. "The evolution of U.S. earnings inequality: 1961?2002," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 28(Dec), pages 10-29.
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    11. Claudia Goldin, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 1-21, May.
    12. Katz, Lawrence F. & Autor, David H., 1999. "Changes in the wage structure and earnings inequality," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1463-1555, Elsevier.
    13. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Cohort Size Effects on US Enrollment Decisions," Williams Project on the Economics of Higher Education DP-36, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    14. Jason G. Cummins & Giovanni L. Violante, 2002. "Investment-Specific Technical Change in the US (1947-2000): Measurement and Macroeconomic Consequences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 243-284, April.
    15. Griliches, Zvi, 1969. "Capital-Skill Complementarity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(4), pages 465-468, November.
    16. Ellen R. M cG rattan & Lee E. Ohanian, 2010. "Does Neoclassical Theory Account For The Effects Of Big Fiscal Shocks? Evidence From World War Ii," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 509-532, May.
    17. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    18. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
    19. Hui He, 2011. "Why Have Girls Gone to College? A Quantitative Examination of the Female College Enrollment Rate in the United States: 1955-1980," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 41-64, May.
    20. James Heckman & Lance Lochner & Christopher Taber, 1998. "Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explanations With A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings With Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 1-58, January.
    21. Hui He & Zheng Liu, 2008. "Investment-Specific Technological Change, Skill Accumulation, and Wage Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 314-334, April.
    22. repec:lsu:lsuwpp:2003-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2007. "The Race between Education and Technology: The Evolution of U.S. Educational Wage Differentials, 1890 to 2005," NBER Working Papers 12984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
    25. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Dropout and Enrollment Trends in the Postwar Period: What Went Wrong in the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 439-482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Daron Acemoglu, 2003. "Patterns of Skill Premia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 199-230.
    27. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 352-352.
    28. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
    29. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    30. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Davoine, Thomas & Mankart, Jochen, 2017. "Changes in education, wage inequality and working hours over time," Discussion Papers 38/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Llavador, Humberto & Solano-García, Angel, 2011. "Immigration policy with partisan parties," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-2), pages 134-142, February.
    3. Angelopoulos, Angelos & Economides, George & Liontos, George & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Sakkas, Stelios, 2022. "Public redistributive policies in general equilibrium: An application to Greece," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    4. Schäfer, Andreas, 2014. "Technological change, population dynamics, and natural resource depletion," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 122-136.
    5. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Wei Jiang & James Malley, 2015. "Fiscal multipliers in a two-sector search and matching model," Working Papers 2015_03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Zinan Wang, 2022. "The Effects of Globalization on Skilled Labor, Unskilled Labor, and the Skill Premium," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 407-452, July.
    7. Castex, Gonzalo & (Stanley) Cho, Sang-Wook & Dechter, Evgenia, 2022. "The decline in capital-skill complementarity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Hui He, 2011. "Why Have Girls Gone to College? A Quantitative Examination of the Female College Enrollment Rate in the United States: 1955-1980," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 41-64, May.
    9. Şerife Genç İleri, 2019. "Selective immigration policy and its impacts on Canada's native‐born population: A general equilibrium analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 954-992, August.
    10. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Aditi Mitra, 2013. "The Interaction between Human and Physical Capital Accumulation and the Growth-Inequality Trade-off," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 26-75.
    11. Slavik, Ctirad & Yazici, Hakki, 2015. "Determinants of Wage and Earnings Inequality in the United States," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113021, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Stylianos Sakkas, 2021. "Redistributive policies in general equilibrium," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2021-08, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Konstantinos, Angelopoulos & James, Malley & Apostolis, Philippopoulos, 2013. "Human capital, social mobility and the skill premium," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-55, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    14. Goel, Manisha, 2017. "Offshoring – Effects on technology and implications for the labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 217-239.
    15. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Malley, James, 2019. "The Optimal Distribution Of The Tax Burden Over The Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 2298-2337, September.
    16. Baja Daza, Gover & Fernández Tellería, Bernardo X. & Zavaleta Castellón, David, 2014. "Diminishing commodity prices and capital flight in a dutch disease and resource curse environment: The case of Bolivia," MPRA Paper 75702, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2014.
    17. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Wei Jiang & James Malley, 2017. "Targeted fiscal policy to increase employment and wages of unskilled workers," Studies in Economics 1704, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    18. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Jiang, Wei & Malley, James, 2015. "Fiscal multipliers in a two-sector search and matching model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-67, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hui He & Zheng Liu, 2008. "Investment-Specific Technological Change, Skill Accumulation, and Wage Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 314-334, April.
    2. Ariell Reshef, 2013. "Is Technological Change Biased Towards the Unskilled in Services? An Empirical Investigation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 312-331, April.
    3. Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu, 2006. "Ben-Porath meets skill-biased technical change: a theoretical analysis of rising inequality," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 144, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu, 2010. "A Quantitative Analysis of the Evolution of the US Wage Distribution, 1970–2000," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 227-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Raveh, Ohad & Reshef, Ariell, 2016. "Capital imports composition, complementarities, and the skill premium in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 183-206.
    6. Knoblach, Michael, 2019. "Skill-biased technological change, endogenous labor supply, and the skill premium," CEPIE Working Papers 03/19, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    7. Davoine, Thomas & Mankart, Jochen, 2017. "Changes in education, wage inequality and working hours over time," Discussion Papers 38/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Diego Restuccia & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2013. "The Evolution Of Education: A Macroeconomic Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(3), pages 915-936, August.
    9. Christian Jaag, 2005. "The Role of Endogenous Skill Choice in an Aging Economy," Public Economics 0505005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bai, Chong-En & Liu, Qing & Yao, Wen, 2020. "Earnings inequality and China's preferential lending policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Hui He, 2011. "Why Have Girls Gone to College? A Quantitative Examination of the Female College Enrollment Rate in the United States: 1955-1980," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 41-64, May.
    12. Borghans, Lex & ter Weel, Bas, 2007. "The diffusion of computers and the distribution of wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 715-748, April.
    13. Audra Bowlus & Lance Lochner & Chris Robinson & Eda Suleymanoglu, 2023. "Wages, Skills, and Skill-Biased Technical Change: The Canonical Model Revisited," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(6), pages 1783-1819.
    14. Zeynep Elitas & Hakan Ercan & Semih Tumen, 2015. "Reassessing the trends in the relative supply of college-equivalent workers in the U.S.: a selection-correction approach," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 13(2), pages 249-273, June.
    15. Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu, 2012. "Understanding The Evolution Of The Us Wage Distribution: A Theoretical Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 482-517, May.
    16. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2007. "Schooling, Inequality and Government Policy," Staff Working Papers 07-12, Bank of Canada.
    17. Tali Regev, 2007. "Imperfect information, self-selection and the market for higher education," Working Paper Series 2007-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
    19. Şerife Genç İleri, 2019. "Selective immigration policy and its impacts on Canada's native‐born population: A general equilibrium analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 954-992, August.
    20. Cassou, Steven P. & Gorostiaga, Arantza & Uribe-Zubiaga, Iker, 2013. "Policy effects of the elasticity of substitution across labor types in life cycle models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 59-70.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Skill premium; Schooling choice; Capital–skill complementarity; Investment-specific technological change; Demographic change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:56:y:2012:i:8:p:1546-1572. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.