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1979–2001: A Greek great depression through the lens of neoclassical growth theory

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  • Gogos, Stylianos G.
  • Mylonidis, Nikolaos
  • Papageorgiou, Dimitris
  • Vassilatos, Vanghelis
Abstract
This paper focuses on the performance of the Greek economy during the period 1979–2001. Following the work of Cole and Ohanian (1999) and Kehoe and Prescott (2002, 2007) this twenty year episode can be characterized as a great depression. We use this methodology and ask whether, given the observed exogenous path of total factor productivity (TFP), the neoclassical growth model can generate an equilibrium behavior that has growth accounting characteristics similar to those in the data. The answer is affirmative: Changes in TFP are crucial in accounting for the Greek great depression. Our model economy predicts a big decline of economic activity during the 80s and until the mid-90s and a strong recovery for the period 1995–2001. This is exactly what happened in Greece. Moreover, the model successfully mimics the actual data with respect to the timing of peaks and troughs and the time paths of most key macroeconomic variables. However, puzzles between theory's predictions and the observed data are not missing. For instance, things are (not surprisingly for the neoclassical growth model) less successful when it comes to the labor factor.

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  • Gogos, Stylianos G. & Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Papageorgiou, Dimitris & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2014. "1979–2001: A Greek great depression through the lens of neoclassical growth theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 316-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:36:y:2014:i:c:p:316-331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.031
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    Cited by:

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    2. Malmaeus, J. Mikael & Alfredsson, Eva C., 2017. "Potential Consequences on the Economy of Low or No Growth - Short and Long Term Perspectives," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 57-64.
    3. Alogoskoufis, George, 2023. "The twin deficits, monetary instability and debt crises in the history of modern Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Kunpeng Wang & Wenjun Wu & Awais Jabbar & Zinabu Wolde & Minghao Ou, 2021. "Dynamic Evolution and Spatial Convergence of the Virtual Cultivated Land Flow Intensity in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Kollintzas, Tryphon & Papageorgiou, Dimitris & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2018. "Market and political power interactions in Greece: A theory," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 59-83.
    6. Tryphon Kollintzas & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Efthymios Tsionas & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2018. "Market and political power interactions in Greece: an empirical investigation," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-43, December.
    7. Varthalitis, Petros, 2019. "FIR-GEM: A SOE-DSGE Model for fiscal policy analysis in Ireland," Papers WP620, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. George Economides & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2017. "The driving forces of the current Greek great depression," Working Papers 201703, Athens University Of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    9. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2014. "BoGGEM: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for policy simulations," Working Papers 182, Bank of Greece.
    10. Stylianos G. Gogos & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2017. "Rent Seeking Activities and Aggregate Economic Performance - The Case of Greece," Working Papers 201712, Athens University Of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Depression; Greece; Growth accounting; Total factor productivity; Dynamic general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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