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Expectations and optimal monetary policy: A stability problem revisited

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  • Xiao, Wei
  • Xu, Junyi
Abstract
A landmark result in the optimal monetary policy design literature is that fundamental-based interest rate rules invariably lead to rational expectations equilibria (REE) that are not stable under adaptive learning. In this paper, we make a novel information assumption that private agents cannot observe aggregate fundamental shocks, and use simple linear forecasting rules for learning. We find that with fundamental-based rules, there exist limited information equilibria that are stable under learning. Moreover, there are multiple equilibria. Learning can be used as a selection tool to identify a unique equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao, Wei & Xu, Junyi, 2014. "Expectations and optimal monetary policy: A stability problem revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 296-299.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:124:y:2014:i:2:p:296-299
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.06.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35.
    11. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
    12. repec:bla:manchs:v:67:y:1999:i:0:p:1-35 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
    2. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2016. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria, Persistence Amplification & Monetary Policy," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive learning; Optimal monetary policy; E-stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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