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Bias in dynamic panel estimation with fixed effects, incidental trends and cross section dependence

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  • Phillips, Peter C.B.
  • Sul, Donggyu
Abstract
Explicit asymptotic bias formulae are given for dynamic panel regression estimators as the cross section sample size N 8. The results extend earlier work by Nickell (1981) in several directions that are relevant for practical work, including models with unit roots, deterministic trends, predetermined and exogenous regressors, and errors that may be cross sectionally dependent. The asymptotic bias is found to be so large when incidental linear trends are fitted and the time series sample size is small that it changes the sign of the autoregressive coefficient. Another finding of interest is that, when there is cross section error dependence, the probability limit of the dynamic panel regression estimator is a random variable rather than a constant, which helps to explain the substantial variability observed in dynamic panel estimates when there is cross section dependence even in situations where N is very large.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2007. "Bias in dynamic panel estimation with fixed effects, incidental trends and cross section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 162-188, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:137:y:2007:i:1:p:162-188
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moon, Hyungsik R. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2000. "Estimation Of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(6), pages 927-997, December.
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    4. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Honore, Bo, 2001. "Panel data models: some recent developments," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 53, pages 3229-3296, Elsevier.
    6. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2004. "GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 467-522, March.
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    8. Hyungsik R. Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Panels with Incidental Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1246, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Jinyong Hahn & Guido Kuersteiner, 2002. "Asymptotically Unbiased Inference for a Dynamic Panel Model with Fixed Effects when Both "n" and "T" Are Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1639-1657, July.
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    15. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman & Guido Kuersteiner, 2005. "Bias Corrected Instrumental Variables Estimation for Dynamic Panel Models with Fixed E¤ects," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-024, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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