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Climate change effects on red spruce decline mitigated by reduction in air pollution within its shrinking habitat range

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  • Koo, Kyung Ah
  • Patten, Bernard C.
  • Teskey, Robert O.
  • Creed, Irena F.
Abstract
We investigated the potential effects of projected climate change on red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) growth in the Great Smoky Mountains of Southeastern USA. A model called Annual Radial Increment Model (ARIM) was used to capture ecosystem complexity manifested as direct and indirect effects in multifactorial within- and across-scale interactions. The model was run under different scenarios, including projected climate change under reduced, no change, and increased atmospheric pollution. Modeled red spruce growth at end of 21st century (2080–2099) was compared to modeled growth at end of the 20th century (1980–1999). Red spruce growth at high elevations (≥1700m) declined by 10.8% when climate change interacted with a 10% increase in air pollution, but red spruce growth increased by 8.4% when air pollution decreased by 10%. In contrast, red spruce growth at low elevations (<1700m) declined by 11.2% with a 10% increase in air pollution, 8.9% with no change, and 6.4% with a 10% decrease in air pollution. Our results suggest that red spruce populations at high-elevation may grow more rapidly under climate change if air pollution decreases, but populations at low-elevation may decline irrespective of air pollution changes as habitats shrink.

Suggested Citation

  • Koo, Kyung Ah & Patten, Bernard C. & Teskey, Robert O. & Creed, Irena F., 2014. "Climate change effects on red spruce decline mitigated by reduction in air pollution within its shrinking habitat range," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 293(C), pages 81-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:293:y:2014:i:c:p:81-90
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chris D. Thomas & Alison Cameron & Rhys E. Green & Michel Bakkenes & Linda J. Beaumont & Yvonne C. Collingham & Barend F. N. Erasmus & Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira & Alan Grainger & Lee Hannah & Lesle, 2004. "Extinction risk from climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6970), pages 145-148, January.
    2. Daniel F. Doak & William F. Morris, 2010. "Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7318), pages 959-962, October.
    3. John Harte & Annette Ostling & Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig, 2004. "Climate change and extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    4. Salas, Andria K. & Borrett, Stuart R., 2011. "Evidence for the dominance of indirect effects in 50 trophic ecosystem networks," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(5), pages 1192-1204.
    5. Koo, Kyung-Ah & Patten, Bernard C. & Teskey, Robert O., 2011. "Assessing environmental factors in red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) growth in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA: From conceptual model, envirogram, to simulation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 824-834.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Yetter & Sophan Chhin & John P. Brown, 2021. "Sustainable Management of Central Appalachian Red Spruce," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-13, September.

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