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Technology and the great divergence: Global economic development since 1820

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  • Allen, Robert C.
Abstract
The paper measures productivity growth in seventeen countries in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. GDP per worker and capital per worker in 1985 US dollars were estimated for 1820, 1850, 1880, 1913, and 1939 by using historical national accounts to back cast Penn World Table data for 1965 and 1990. Frontier and econometric production functions are used to measure neutral technical change and local technical change. The latter includes concurrent increases in capital per worker and output per worker beyond the highest values achieved. These increases were pioneered by the rich countries of the day. An increase in the capital-labor ratio was usually followed by a half century in which rich countries raised output per worker at that higher ratio. Then the rich countries moved on to a higher capital-ratio, and technical progress ceased at the lower ratio they abandoned. Most of the benefits of technical progress accrued to the rich countries that pioneered it. It is remarkable that countries in 1990 with low capital labor ratios achieved an output per worker that was no higher than countries with the same capital labor ratio in 1820. In the course of the last two hundred years, the rich countries created the production function of the world that defines the growth possibilities of poor countries today.

Suggested Citation

  • Allen, Robert C., 2012. "Technology and the great divergence: Global economic development since 1820," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:49:y:2012:i:1:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2011.09.002
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    9. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2018. "Technology diffusion, international integration and participation in developing economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 215-253, January.
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    13. Naudé, Wim & Tregenna, Fiona, 2023. "Africa's Industrialization Prospects: A Fresh Look," IZA Discussion Papers 16043, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Naude, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2015. "Industrialisation, Innovation, Inclusion," MERIT Working Papers 2015-043, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Walheer, Barnabé, 2021. "Labor productivity and technology heterogeneity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological change; Global history; Great divergence; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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