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By force of demand: Explaining cyclical fluctuations of international trade and government spending

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  • Jiang, Mingming
Abstract
This paper explores the role of demand shocks, as an alternative to productivity shocks, in driving both domestic and international business cycles within the international real business cycle (IRBC) framework. In addition to those well-documented domestic business cycle fluctuations (e.g., the volatility and cyclicality of output, consumption, investment, labor hours, and labor productivity) and international business cycle properties (e.g., the countercyclical net export and the comovement puzzle), this paper focuses on two additional stylized facts in the industrialized countries: the procyclical trade openness (the GDP fraction of trade volume) and the countercyclical government size (the GDP fraction of government spending). Using a parsimonious dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we show that the model׳s predictions under productivity shocks are not consistent with these facts. Instead, a demand-shock-driven model replicates the above facts while matching other domestic and international business cycle properties. An estimated version of the model confirms the quantitatively important impacts of demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Mingming, 2016. "By force of demand: Explaining cyclical fluctuations of international trade and government spending," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 249-267.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:69:y:2016:i:c:p:249-267
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.05.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Sun Xiaojin & Tsang Kwok Ping, 2019. "What cycles? Data detrending in DSGE models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-23, June.
    4. Jiang, Mingming, 2017. "On demand shocks and international business cycle puzzles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 29-32.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand shocks; Trade openness; Government spending; International business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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