[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2015-03-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for the Presence of Asymmetric Information in the Oil Market: A Vector Autoregression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Haytem Ahmed Troug

    (Department of Economics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK,)

  • Rashid Sbia

    (DULBEA, Solvay Business and Economics School, Ministry of Finance, UAE)

Abstract
This paper aims at providing empirical support to claims made by officials in oil-producing countries that investors in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) market are involved in the disruption of oil production in some Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries countries. The claims state that some investors in the NYSE are financing militias in those countries to close down oilfields and ports, and buy oil before this incident occurs. By doing so, they have access to information that no one else in the market has, and make profits from this information. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) model approach to detect this phenomenon, and being inspired by the asymmetric information theory, we fail to support those claims. We tried to put this theory under investigation by running test on three oil-disruption incidents that occurred in 2013, and all of the results turned out to be insignificant. Nevertheless, this approach was able to detect a period which might involve asymmetric information in the NYSE. In addition, using a VAR model enabled us to measure the duration and magnitude of the effect of a shock in volumes of trade on oil prices in that market.

Suggested Citation

  • Haytem Ahmed Troug & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Testing for the Presence of Asymmetric Information in the Oil Market: A Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 753-762.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2015-03-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/1316/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/1316/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    2. Jones, Charles I & Williams, John C, 2000. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 65-85, March.
    3. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2009. "International R&D spillovers and institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 723-741, October.
    4. Marios Zachariadis, 2004. "R&D‐induced Growth in the OECD?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 423-439, August.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Funke, Michael & Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2000. "Spatial R&D spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from West Germany," HWWA Discussion Papers 98, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    8. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    9. Robert E. Evenson & Lakhwinder Singh, 1997. "Economic Growth, International Technological Spillovers and Public Policy: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Asia," Working Papers 777, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    10. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    11. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    12. Segerstrom, Paul S, 2000. "The Long-Run Growth Effects of R&D Subsidies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 277-305, September.
    13. ULKU HUlya, 2010. "R&D, Invention and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis," EcoMod2003 330700146, EcoMod.
    14. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    15. Beñat Bilbao‐Osorio & Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose, 2004. "From R&D to Innovation and Economic Growth in the EU," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 434-455, September.
    16. Miroslav Verbič & Boris Majcen & Olga Ivanova & Mitja Čok, 2011. "R&D and Economic Growth in Slovenia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach with Endogenous Growth," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(1), pages 67-89, March.
    17. M. Ishaq Nadiri & Seongjun Kim, 1996. "International R&D Spillovers, Trade and Productivity in Major OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Falk, Martin, 2007. "R&D spending in the high-tech sector and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 140-147, September.
    19. Nadiri, M.I. & Kim, S., 1996. "International R&D Spillovers, Trade and Productivity in Major OECD Countries," Working Papers 96-35, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    20. Hulya Ulku, 2004. "R&D, Innovation, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2004/185, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Nunes, Paulo Maçãs & Serrasqueiro, Zélia & Leitão, João, 2012. "Is there a linear relationship between R&D intensity and growth? Empirical evidence of non-high-tech vs. high-tech SMEs," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 36-53.
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    23. Onur Altin & A. Aysen Kaya, 2009. "Turkiye’de Ar-Ge Harcamalari Ve Ekonomik Buyume Arasindaki Nedensel Iliskinin Analizi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 251-259.
    24. Pessoa, Argentino, 2010. "R&D and economic growth: How strong is the link?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 152-154, May.
    25. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Troug, Haytem & Murray, Matt, 2015. "The Effects of Asymmetric Shocks in Oil Prices on the Performance of the Libyan Economy," MPRA Paper 68705, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cuma BOZKURT, 2015. "R&D Expenditures and Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 188-198.
    2. Abida Hafeez & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Fiza Qureshi, 2019. "Exploring the Relationship between Government R & D Expenditures and Economic Growth in a Global Perspective: A PMG Estimation Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 163-174, April.
    3. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    4. Young Eun Kim & Norman V. Loayza, 2019. "Productivity Growth: Patterns and Determinants across the World," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(84), pages 36-93.
    5. Maza, Adolfo & Villaverde, José & Hierro, María, 2014. "Should cohesion policy focus on fostering R&D? Evidence from Spain," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 29, pages 139-164.
    6. Ayres, Robert U, 2001. "The minimum complexity of endogenous growth models:," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(9), pages 817-838.
    7. Bayraktar-Sağlam, Bahar & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "A Romerian contribution to the empirics of economic growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 257-272.
    8. Ramesh Chandra Das, 2020. "Interplays among R&D spending, patent and income growth: new empirical evidence from the panel of countries and groups," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Ramesh Chandra Das & Sujata Mukherjee, 2020. "Do Spending on R&D Influence Income? An Enquiry on the World’s Leading Economies and Groups," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(4), pages 1295-1315, December.
    10. Bravo-Ortega, Claudio & García Marín, Álvaro, 2011. "R&D and Productivity: A Two Way Avenue?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1090-1107, July.
    11. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Alireza Poorfaraj & Hadi Keshavarz, 2011. "Knowledge and Economic Growth: Evidence from Some Developing Countries," Journal of Education and Vocational Research, AMH International, vol. 1(1), pages 21-25.
    13. Bulent Guloglu & R. Tekin, 2012. "A Panel Causality Analysis of the Relationship among Research and Development, Innovation, and Economic Growth in High-Income OECD Countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(1), pages 32-47, June.
    14. Hugo Erken & Piet Donselaar & Roy Thurik, 2018. "Total factor productivity and the role of entrepreneurship," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 1493-1521, December.
    15. Ekaterina Ponomareva & Alexandra Bozhechkova & Alexandr Knobel, 2012. "Factors of Economic Growth," Published Papers 172, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    16. Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Fethi, Sami & Katircioglu, Salih Turan, 2008. "Does Trade Policy Matter in an Isolated Economy? A Case Study," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(4), pages 637-664.
    17. Pop Silaghi, Monica Ioana & Alexa, Diana & Jude, Cristina & Litan, Cristian, 2014. "Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in Central and Eastern European Countries? A dynamic panel estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 108-119.
    18. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Emrah Sofuoğlu & Oktay Kızılkaya & Emrah Koçak, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of High-Technology Exports on the Growth of the Turkish Economy," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 205-229, January.
    20. P Pegkas & C Tsamadias, 2016. "How important are foreign and domestic investments, exports and human capital for Greece's economic growth?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(1), pages 23-45, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetry of Information; Stock Market; Oil Market; Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries; New York Stock Exchange;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2015-03-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.