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The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?

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  • TimothyJ. Hatton
Abstract
In the last 20 years, developed countries have struggled with a rising tide of asylum seekers, a trend that has now reversed. This article examines what happened and why. It surveys the trends in asylum seeking and the literature that this has generated. It provides new regression estimates of the determinants of asylum applications up to the present. The key findings are that violence and terror can account for much of the variation and that, while tougher policies did have a deterrent effect, they account for only about a third of the decline in applications since 2001. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • TimothyJ. Hatton, 2009. "The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages 183-213, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:119:y:2009:i:535:p:f183-f213
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ralph Rotte & Michael Vogler, 2000. "The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 485-508.
    2. Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe," Labor and Demography 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 May 2004.
    3. Timothy J. Hatton, 2009. "The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages 183-213, February.
    4. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2006. "Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Policy in Europe," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Federico Foders (ed.), Labor Mobility and the World Economy, pages 249-284, Springer.
    5. Eric Neumayer, 2004. "Asylum Destination Choice," European Union Politics, , vol. 5(2), pages 155-180, June.
    6. Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Asylum Recognition Rates in Western Europe - Their Determinants, Variation and Lack of Convergence," Labor and Demography 0312004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2004.
    7. Timothy Hatton & Audrey Lim, 2005. "Australian Asylum Policy: The Tampa Effect," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 115-130.
    8. DeVoretz, Don J. & Pivnenko, Sergiy & Beiser, Morton, 2004. "The Economic Experiences of Refugees in Canada," IZA Discussion Papers 1088, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Timothy J. Hatton, 2005. "European Asylum Policy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 194(1), pages 106-119, October.
    10. Joop Hartog & Aslan Zorlu, 2009. "How important is homeland education for refugees’ economic position in The Netherlands?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 219-246, January.
    11. Tim Hatton & Audrey Lim, 2005. "The ‘Tampa Effect’ Australian Asylum Policy In International Perspective," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2005-457, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    12. Timothy J. Hatton, 2004. "Seeking asylum in Europe [‘Violence against citizens in civil wars: looting or terror?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 19(38), pages 6-62.
    13. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:19:y:2004:i:38:p:5-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Christina Davenport & Will Moore & Steven Poe, 2003. "Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964-1989," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 27-55, January.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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