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Friend-shoring global value chains: a model-based assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia
  • Boeckelmann, Lukas
  • Meunier, Baptiste
Abstract
This box presents a stylised, model-based, general equilibrium assessment of the global economic effects of trade fragmentation. The focus is on a rather extreme scenario in which two hypothetical geopolitical blocs raise barriers to trade in intermediate goods, causing a relocation of supply chains to countries within the same bloc (“friend-shoring”). Using a model developed by Baqaee and Farhi, we find that economic losses (in terms of welfare, trade and prices) can be sizeable, depending on the degree of rigidities embedded in the model. Effects are also heterogeneous across countries, as small, open economies that are reliant on global value chains are more affected. The findings in this box suggest that trade fragmentation would be a lose-lose situation for all parties involved and leave the global economy more vulnerable to shocks. JEL Classification: F12, F13, O33

Suggested Citation

  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Boeckelmann, Lukas & Meunier, Baptiste, 2023. "Friend-shoring global value chains: a model-based assessment," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2023:0002:3
    Note: 930374
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202302_03~d4063f8791.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lizhi Xing & Shuo Jiang & Simeng Yin & Fangke Liu, 2024. "Substitution effect of Asian economies on China’s industrial and supply chains: from the perspective of global production network," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Lorenzo Esposito & Ettore Giuseppe Gatti & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2024. "Quo Vadis Terra? The future of globalization between trade and war," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0040, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    4. Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis A., 2024. "The Economy in its Labyrinth: A Structuralist View of the Mexican Economy in the 21st Century," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(2), pages 181-206.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fragmentation; international relations; International trade; rigidities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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